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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Meteocentre now has the Euro again, so we can compare the 98 storm to this one with the same color schemes: 98 upcoming pattern: I wish I could get em side by side, but I can't.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the individual low centers on the EPS:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is going to be fun for the bowling ball system next week, lol
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some of you SWVA folks @BuCoVaWx @BlunderStorm Some of the Hi res 12z models are giving you some snow early Sat AM. As is the custom I have chosen the model that shows the most snow (RGEM) and chosen the prettiest graphic presentation of said snowfall (COD)
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this over in the West Coast sub forum: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/#IWV atmospheric river models if anyone wants to fantasize about being in the Sierras
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much of substance to add this morning other than silly MJO RMM plots: It just struck me how, if nothing else, I don't know that I've ever seen a forecast aim for 2 with that amplitude. I'm just used to the red arrow being the only way the RMMs show that amplitude, lol. OP Euro RMM not as interested.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    If anyone wants to take a stab at comparisons I made a gif of the radar from that storm (late Jan 1998) and the H5 pattern:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually thinking about that as I typed that out lol. I think maybe people have tried to use it as some sort of guaranteed snow index in the past, IDK.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's definitely going to be interesting to watch modeling around the 10th when the MJO RMMs show it finally kicking along into more favorable phases. I suspect we get a big SOI drop around the 10th as well. Mean EPS plots show some nice subsidence over Darwin around that time: OP GFS:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I need someone to explain to me in interpretive dance whether or not winter is over.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    What I am about to post is highly speculative (even more than usual) so use/ look at/ care about with caution. WRT the 12z GFS long range depiction of a possible NAO block developing. There seems to be a connection between this and ridging attacking the the SPV at 50mb: But this is not evident above Greenland at 10mb: What is still evident at 10 mb is a warming emerging over Siberia and aiming toward the N pole: Again it is waaaaayyyyy out there, but that is not a healthy SPV, if that sort of evolution plays out. What would be really interesting about this evolution to me, is that we've had SPV disruptions initiate over Greenland from lower down in the atmosphere (i.e. NAO), and from the warming over Siberia, but I don't know we've had one with both components since I've been posting. We remain in a SPV Watch. Amy Butler had a pretty level headed post about the evolution on the twitterwebs:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think one of the problems models are having in the medium to long range right now, is that the Pac jet is about to retract pretty abruptly from a basin wide extension to one that is more normal for a Nina: You had this a couple of days ago: and you are going to something that looks a lot more choppyL I think that's partly why the GFS or all models seems to have done so well with the pattern we are in now. The jet was pretty much overwhelming everything and it was pretty easy to see where individual shortwaves would end up. As that breaks apart though, you get individual shortwaves still flying with the speed that jet imparted, but without it aiming them all to one place. So we get the bowling ball type pattern past day 10. I will also be interested to see how all this adjusts if and when the MJO actually makes some head way into 8/1
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let's hope so, lol. For us to get a good hit it usually means they are ridged and warm nosed. IMO things don't look better or worse for us or them. 18z GFS ushers in bowling ball season early:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some reason it wouldn't embed my gifs, so I'll try again here: warming elongation and shearing of the SPV 50mb ridging and 500 mb ridging below that
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    ...STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX WATCH IS ISSUED IN FOR THE LAST HALF OF JANUARY * WHAT...GFS has honked harshly for significant warming at 10 mb for the past few runs. At 6z 1/1/23 it showed temperatures warming above 32 degrees over N. Siberia. No split was indicated, only a general stretching and weakening of the top of the vortex. There are however some indications of a connection between the blocking over central Canada at H5 and a higher geopotential heights at 50 mb in the medium range: * IMPACTS...Plan on hype from the usual suspects on wxtwitter and a potential for hazardous model mayhem in the upcoming weeks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Remember a WATCH is issued when there are hints of a significant SPV disruption. The actual event has NOT happened yet and may not occur, but there have been enough model runs that I feel confident there is a higher than normal chance after mid month of significant stratospheric disruptions which COULD percolate to the CONUS 2 - 3 weeks after the event. High latitude blocking has already occurred this year and is ongoing, so there could be, IMO, a higher than usual potential for any SPV disruptions to more easily impact H5 patterns. But again this would not be until early to mid Feb, if it even happens.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Most of the ponds are just unfreezing up here in the plateau and as they do they are creating a cool/ eerie fog (depending on your perspective) that hangs just above the ground.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got a some good shots of the valley from Mt Leconte today: Looking towards the Tri-Cities Looking towards Knoxville: Downsloping time lapse: Downslping drying rain out as it moved over Le Conte into the valley: Some ice sheets 6+ inches thick near the top:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 time to start looking at Mt Whitney and other Sierra Nevada forecasts, lol
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Y’all are wanting to not just beat the dead horse but resurrect it lol. I was going to try and keep peace and let it go, but since the horse is getting shocked by those chest pads…. I’ll poke a little bit too and say that the -5 standard deviation EPO schmaybe had something to do with the cold and snow we just experienced. I’ll grant that the NAO helped aim it, but I don’t think we would have had such cold if the EPO hadn’t dislodged it.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Your storm is still there at 6z John. If we can get it to pop up for 5 or 6 more runs, that should be money for a nice cutter. This might be your storm Itryatgolf! To be more serious, the pattern the GFS is showing is conducive for this sort of an outcome, several waves pushing the boundary a bit further south each time at peak climo.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT the strat, there have definitely been some signs that it is under stress at the top, but nothing showing a split just yet. The mean on the GEFS shows the warming and displacement, but no sign of a split yet: I think this is tied to what Jason Furtado was tweeting yesterday. Here's the thread if anyone wants to read it: My take on what he is saying is that as waves at H5 get tossed up to the strat from eastern Siberia they can either be reflected back down over Canada or that can bring warming and weakening to the the SPV from 30mb on up. Much like how the upcoming pattern may or may not play out, we just don't know yet which of the two options is more likely. Here's ye olden 3D vortex. You can see some shear at the top from these heat fluxes, but that's about it:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Solid dusting up here in south central Morgan County
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