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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS low locations: In meetings this AM, did I miss all the fun, lol?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at the 850s, it is allowing for a little better entrenchment of the cold air before the system and the surface low is a few millibars weaker at hour 90 of the 6z Euro.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure it will mean much in the long run, but the 6z Euro is a little bit more positively tilted, a little bit weaker with the energy, after it interacts a touch more with the upper low off of California.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the NC mountains folks just posted that there was a RECON plane sent to throw some dropsondes into the atmospheric river and it also threw some soundings at our energy for the weekend system.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH going back and looking at the 12z CMC it looks quite bit like the 18z GEFS with its slp placement.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a loop of the GEFS lows. The small lps and hps are members and the big Hs and Ls are the means:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the GEFS lows are about half north and half south: With the mean a touch south of the OP.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think in the case of our area (specifically central parts of the eastern great valley), we want a low to pop around New Orleans or Mobile and make a run at Cape Hatteras. TBH we don't want any sort of a hand off, since even if it was cold, that would hurt any TROWL/ deform band as the hand off occurs.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really would sting to get energy diving in from that angle, but still get a nasty Miller B Hybrid. Far NW and far NE section could do ok with that look though.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Two contour closed upper low over OK at hour 99 and still diving.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is a lot of energy aimed at the Gulf. Can it dive, wrap, and make the turn?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Energy starting to try and wrap up over western Nebraska at hour 81
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    So far it looks pretty similar. A bunch of energy digging towards the western Gulf at hour 75, but the 18z ICON spooked me a bit so I don't want to say how it looks for sure, one way or another, lol.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS is up and running
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS members through hour 138:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS low clusters:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Verbatim a bomb. Drops 30mb in 24 hours
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's a pretty energy pass. And, what's more, another vort is really trying to catch it: 977 in Souther New Jersey:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Comparison gif from 0z to 12z today time stamp is 18z Sunday:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie looked pretty good with the energy's approach, but dives it a little too far south:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    TT doesn't have the precip maps yet, but here are the 850s and SLPs:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out how different the last 4 SLP maps look on the CMC:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild. Last 4 runs of the CMC, ending with 12z today:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I'm interested in seeing, if we get a vort track similar to what the 12z GFS is showing, is how the surface low hand off works in this situation. It almost looked like it tried to pop one in the NE Gulf, then off the SE coast. Would that perhaps mitigate some of the normal eastern valley warm nose issues? I don't know. I've never seen a storm take a track like this, as far as I can remember, while I've been tracking these on the forums.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're just going to pretend Kuchera rations don't exist on this one:
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