Holston_River_Rambler

Oh yeah, that is eerie, lol

3hr mean snowfall: light green = 1-2 and dark green = 2-3

I've been watching them for most storms and may have missed a few runs here and there, but IMO that is the best SREF run of the season, lol.

SREF Plumes are......uuhhhh......interesting... Might be a fun 12z suite incoming.

6z Euro looks pretty much steady to me:

Hi all over and in the far blue mountains. Sadly I will be just west of Boone (halfway between Boone and banner Elk) for what right looks like a nice plateau TN snow. I've never been there for a storm like this, so what are some reasonable expectations? Most of the models keep the snow west of the mts, but I also know elevation can make a huge difference once the low moves NE and you get the thermal profile crashing. Looks like I will be right at 3200 feet, just off 105 and up a hill. I also suspect the models have a hard time resolving rain and snow lines in the mountains, but don't really have any experience.

Not enough coffee to dig into exciting things like frontogenesis right not, but I think we had a pretty nice slp pass on some of those runs. Been prepping for my Boone trip which all but guarantees someone gets hammered. I'll be following along though and may force the people I'm staying with to drive me the 20 minutes up to Beech Mt.

I guess it would have been more accurate to say the precip is more SW -> NE than SSW -> NNE

0z NAM looks like it will come in better than 18z. Precip. is more WSW -> ENE, instead of SW -> NE. A little flatter flow than 18z. Still a bit of LP into the east TN foothills, but better than 18z IMO.

Yeah: weathermodels is so slow sometimes, the precip type is only out to hour 30 and this is as close as I can zoom

Actually I got a second to grab this (no Kuchera available):

Can't post the map right now, but the 18z Euro looked pretty similar to 12z, maybe even a tick weaker and SE with the precip shield.

I don't think there was a huge change in the 18z NAM. It's still past 60 hours anyway. I think you could argue it was flatter in some ways (surface low placement at 6z Saturday) and more amped in others (surface low strength at 9z Saturday) than its 12z run.

0z EPS left and 12z EPS right:

Looks like the mean went down at Nashville and Jackson KY too. To me that signals that it sees a flatter system overall. Of course all this is based on the SREF and it doesn't always indicate what the NAM will do during that long excruciating wait between the 12z Euro and the 18z NAM.

If the SREF H5 vorticity map is right, the NAM will probably come in flatter too. Probably a good thing with a last minute NW adjustment still on the table.

SREFs in an hour, lol

Yeah it looked like it flattened the system out a bit and made a clean pass. Will be interesting to see how all this plays out in March. Is the reality of the system more amped and does it have more precip? I'll be in Boone, so John upstream from me should be locked into half a foot, lol.

Kuchera Map:

12z Euro:

Looks like it will keep the surface low east of the Apps. East of Charlotte at hour 72.

To me it looks like a snow sounding, especially with heavier rates, but honestly wouldn't put much faith into it until I saw it falling, lol.

pretty different profile around Knoxville: More tapered, sort of a warm cheek. I have no idea if those soundings are realistic.

Looks like the 12z GFS saw a warm nose at 700 mb for some reason in the Cumberland county area:

Looks to me like it came in slightly SE from 6z, but not as SE as 0z. Not a huge jump either way.