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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 I'm adding the JiC (John in Chatt) to be like the MJO, that is if John knows the general weeks he has to go to Chatt each winter. We can even create plots. Current conditions
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    But the 18z GFS hates everyone but TRI and wants us to die
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it had a better interaction with the secondary N. stream piece (blue circle), than it has had in previous runs, but yeah, still too positively tilted with the main vort to the south.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know that we had a storm thread for it (maybe I missed it) but the obs for this start on page 12:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the radar from the top CIPS analogue: and the H5/ MSLP pattern: Honestly the radar doesn't look too different from what some of the models have been spitting out. 12z RGEM at 60 hours:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the top CIPS analogues out to hour 60 based on the 12z NAM (I wish that CIPS site gave analogues based off the RGEM, lol): site: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2022020912&map=COOP2perc
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM looked interesting.: No clue where that would have gone, but it is quite a bit different from the NAM: 6z GFS that John posted looked more like the RGEM, which seems odd to me since I think the NAMs are closer akin to the GFS wrt their physics.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we end up with ye olden suppressed solution from last week (below is la la land GFS run from 12z Feb 1): I've started saving the nice runs at day 15, after what happened earlier in the month. Compare the above to what you mentioned, now under 10 days out: And to be fair, this is what this weekend's (now seeming suppressed) storm looked like at in GFS la la land: :
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    But it also gives us another squally clipper around hour 140:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    The last clipper with the squalls was the only one I remember in like the last decade. 12z Euro is a late bloomer too.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    For now we shall enjoy the look of the 6z GEFS height and vorticity mean, "bias corrected" (whatever that means on storm vista) Here is the non "bias corrected" for comparison:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    #neverforget: 4 run trend on the GFS from the last storm's shortwave out west, within hour 123. and of course let us not forget the ever popular "tail" solution either:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    The basic idea of the 0z GFS is still there at 6z, just a tad further SE.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found the NE folks mentioned this: https://sondehub.org/#!mt=Mapnik&mz=6&qm=1h&mc=36.36181,-84.27051 weather balloon tracker Looks like it even gives you live Skew-Ts
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    psu just posted a link to this article in Nature, in the MA forum The authors seem to think that the sacred Modoki may make an appearance next winter: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97111-y
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I was about to say... Maybe it will finally reboot the TIMs model.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we severe, or do we flood though?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I meant to post this yesterday but didn't get a chance: Never forget, First Creek Flamingo guy at the Fellini Kroger: https://www.knoxtntoday.com/floating-the-flood-flamingo-mans-not-done-yet/ https://www.knoxnews.com/picture-gallery/news/2020/02/07/knoxville-flooding-high-waters-no-match-man-and-his-unicorn/4692960002/
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was a beautiful Euro run, no doubt. Too bad it's the "new" Euro. But there is a signal across all ops for a storm that weekend.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's an appetizer though:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's not quite far enough in the run to where I could get the whole system, but I will when the run gets out like 12 more hours.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro is, I think, about to make up those couple hundred miles with a triple phaser for Valentine's weekend.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    The CMC still loves you and wants you to be happy:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright long range GFS in banter, work your magic:
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