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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight CMC was interesting. Euro wasn't too far off. CMC: Euro: CMC absolutely crushes the MA, Le Conte gets 33 inches lol. Pretty good ensemble support for something big somewhere in the east, as others have said: And yes snowmaker it probably is too late and it will probably be cold and dry. Ideally we would get some trees good and loose today so that when their upper branches with buds freeze later this month and we get some good winds, then they'll blow over.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Most of you severe enthusiasts are probably aware of this, but something new to me were "radar pinwheels" https://epod.usra.edu/blog/2008/07/radar-pinwheels-and-wind-shear.html
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    High wind event likely across the TN Valley. Possibility of straight line winds associated with thunderstorms and tornados. Wind shear visible on OHX radar:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll create a thread for it. You can actually see the wind shear on the OHX radar this morning. Not something I think I've ever seen before in out area. Not saying that's never happened, just I haven't noticed it.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same on the plateau and central eastern great valley around Knoxville
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not a terrible MSLP N hemisphere look at hr 174 on the EPS: Some risk of Miller A/B hybrid, but better than anything so far this winter, lol
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm trying to post and EPS gif, but only have phone bandwidth at this time. The frame around hour 192 is causing the "brooklyn" met that posts sometimes in the MA forum, to post it with a variety of swears (in a good way), on multiple forums, lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Please don't read anything more into this post than what I say: Just never thought I'd see that kind of amplitude in phase 8. GEFS agrees: I've always thought models' initial conditions impact what bizarro fantasy solutions they show, so will be interested to see what wild things they show by about March 10. This hobby is always more interesting to me when there are at least fantasy storms on OP runs, whether they happen or not, or are even realistic, I just enjoy watching.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    My ground is drying out though. I'm no longer the owner of a swamp. Gotta get that qpf back up lol.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looked interesting at day 10, lol:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro control got on board the fantasy storm train overnight:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z fantasy storm ftw:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Watching the storm next week its interesting to see the GFS basically go back to what the Euro and CMC were showing a few days ago,. while they seemed to follow it and are now gradually working their way NW. I think what's killed us with this one is that the -NAO has been having a harder time establishing.The better runs had it further west over the Davis Straits. It backed way off and although it is bringing it back, it just isn't as stout. I'm guessing that has to do with fighting La Nina. It's going to be fun to watch how this all unfolds after the 10th. Please know that is not some cryptic assertion that we'll get buried in snow, just fun to watch a blocky pattern. TBH we probably want the March 4th storm to crank up and cut now, to help strengthen the NAO.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was down here in MoCo. We have a healthy population lol. That one was a particularly fat one though!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    If enough people give this the thumbs down new reaction, maybe we can drive the below away: There are some 5" qpf means showing up over the next 10 -15 days on the ensembles.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro made a pretty big jump towards yesterdays GFS solution wrt to next week's system: Yesterday the Euro and the CMC had the energy coming out all at once and everything cutting (left gif). 0z Euro last night a piece is able to compress the flow ahead of the main shortwave (right gif). IMO 6z GFS shows a pretty realistic solution which is a compromise between the now far SE Euro and far NW CMC. Although I would still argue that the SE ridge will flex more and some NW adjustments are likely given this year's trends: Besides the ever present SE ridge the biggest question seems to be how much energy is flying around out in front of the main shortwave to compress the flow. In this fast flow N stream La Nina, we probably won't have a realistic idea of how that looks until 3 days out or so. But we should have a -NAO flexing and maybe even a 50/50, so we roll the dice this time with that: That would flood some areas and then snow. That would be a new way to fail, so maybe it works out this time, lol.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bats are out tonight:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's even more Miller A like at 18z on the GFS. There were some nice hits (maybe 4 - 5) on the 12z GEFS too. Hot off the press 18z GEFS has some nice members too (and some clunkers) Very few hits on the 12z EPS though. Like Carver's said, it's an 8 - 10 day storm on one model. Sure it's got a low probability of happening, so I would encourage anyone who doesn't want to track it, to not track it.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just don't know if we've failed in all conceivable ways yet. We've not reached the fullness of our "snow lovers suffering" meter. March could really give us those last few chances to reach new lows.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS is hitting the sauce early today! I'd say odds still favor a cutter, but who knows and its not like we have any much hope left to lose at this point lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    March thread is up and running. I can always edit it (at least I think I can) if it all ends up being a bust and just make it a general spring thread.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Does this winter leave like a lion or a lamb? Here I sit at 1300' on the plateau at 6:30 am on Feb 23. The temps are in the mid 60s - lower 70s. The old old folks used to say we had to pay for this kind of weather in winter? Will we this year?
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    The pattern at the end of the 6z GFS looks (not exactly the same) but awfully familiar :
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS not too far off from a Miller A around hour 210:
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