Holston_River_Rambler

The EPS suggest a mean nudge west on the SE ridge, late in the run. This is the first I've seen it try to do that: Seems to be in response to the -NAO pushing west. I don't have access to the run-to-run changes, but I bet they'd look nice for this one run.

Looky looky: Only one run, but that is the best split I've seen on the GFS in a while. Euro is not on board. The split is extra interesting on this run of the GFS since it is initially driven by warming over Siberia, but then a seconds warming appears to be propagating up from the NAO region at the very end of the run:

Not today Vladimir, not today, lol.

Maybe for Christmas, but I have a good Russian Imperial Stout saved up, brewed in TN, if we get some vodka cold. Here is also a semi on topic picture of what would have to be the ultimate 50/50 low, posted just for posterity I've seen the GFS throw out some cray cray solutions, but this one would be wild. The ensemble has nothing like it, but what a wild NWP solution. I feel kind of bad posting the OP GFS at 384, but it is Saturday night and that is about as exciting as it gets here in Morgan County.

Yes I am ready for the highs and the lows and even a loop de loop in phase 7 for the next week, lol:

@Carvers Gap Some strong winds just above the surface heading your way. MRX thinks they might mix down:

There's a pretty big spread showing up on the EPS wrt temps, starting in about 7 days: On Thursday the 23rd one extreme member has a high of 68 and low of 60, while on the other end, one member has a high of 19 and low of 8. It's normal for there to be increasing spread with increasing lead times, but that seems extraordinarily spread out, IMO. It seems like around the 18th or 19th something happens (or doesn't) that causes that spread. That's about when both the OP GFS and Euro start building the -EPO and -NAO, so I guess it just depends on how each member handles it. In fact, look at the spread for the EPO and NAO on the EPS: A few members of both the GEFS and EPS showing some solid hits for parts of all of the TN Valley Christmas week, to go along with more favorable blocking.

It's interesting to see just how much broad rotation is happening at the northern end of this squall line of the mid/ upper south: . It almost looks like a little meso-vortex with a summertime MCS

Euro looked kinda interesting at 500mb in the eastern US at the end of its run. Not sure it’s worth an gif at 240 hours but I guess the control could be fun past 240.

Yeah, but it ain't the prettiest control run, lol. I don't have the H5 anomalies for the control, but the 300mb winds give a good idea of the pattern.

Here ye go feller:

Lawsy Mercy. I woke up and saw I had 3 (count that 3!!) notifications. Made me a little nervous, lol ! Mr Kevin, you will be happy to note that the BOMM chart has updated and now reflects one day later, Dec 8: A loop'd loop in 8 forecast!?! What's the world coming to? I mean that looks like a pretty solid bet of at least some time in 8. Of course assuming that BOMM's RMM forecast has the right idea. The Euro has it, but is a wee bit slower: Even ye olden GFS looks pretty solid: Even the worst case scenarios on the GFS take it to the "off the charts" territory in 6 and the last time we went there, it facilitated a SSW, originating over N. Asia: Jan - March 2018: Hmmmm 2018... That seems to have had a similar ENSO look: (Blue = La Nina; Red = El Nino) source: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php I may be misremembering, but wasn't 2018 the year we had the SSW in late Feb. and then that put the squoosh on Spring until late May? Actually I went back and looked and I think that SWW was in late Feb (22nd?) 2017. We did however have a SSW in early 2018 a pretty good chance around March 12 of that year. Here are some relevant images and comments from that March: Some how one of the gifs of the HRRR's take on the system survived the 3.5 years: Yeah it doesn't look great, but the ground truth was a little south. I think there are some hypotheses we can throw out based on the above, but simply suggesting these "if this, then thats" do be all I haz energy for this AM. Also, High Latitude Blocking of some sort looks like a pretty safe bet to me too, between Christmas and New Year, its just a question of where it develops and how it evolves. Does it develop and evolve in favorable areas for the TN Valley, or no?

Some of y'all may have already seen this, but Webb posted the BOMM MJO RMM forecast today (It seems like its link has been dead at the CPC MJO site since mid 2020): I think like Jeff mentioned these tropical critters are going to slow its progression down even more and this BOMM forecast seems to show that well. Not happy to see it forecast to collapse into the COD as it moves into 8, but I think most of us would be happy to see it make it there. Watch this little critter to the east of New Guinea: In the past few years we've seen the MJO try to progress past 6/7ish and it gets sapped by a tropical critter in this area. I think it is the SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone). Masiello noted this as well a few days ago, in dialogue with Webb. On his gif you can see a mirror cyclone developing N of the equator as the Equatorial Rossby waves associated with the MJO pulse head east: Found this while trying to puzzle out the connections between Rossby Waves/ Kelvin Waves/ and the MJO: http://kejian1.cmatc.cn/vod/comet/tropical/MJO_EqWaves/navmenu.php_tab_1_page_2.2.2_type_text.htm I thought It might be of interest to some. Happy Hour GFS has a nice suppressed storm track: In no way trying to connect this gif to the tropical stuff above, but thought it was a pretty pattern for fantasy land. Looks to me like HL Blocking funneling energy and cold from the pole.

Yeah I saw that and was like "Ooooh some new forum I can haunt!!" lol

Skunked. Nary a flake.

The tension is building:

Woo hoo!!! I just checked radar and was about to ask what you had. The precip band is still about 4-5 miles north of me.

Looks like they're headed towards my way too. Little warm up here at my place at 38, but we'll see.

Ehrmergerd, could it be? GFS 50 mb Heights: GFS 10 mb heights: GFS 10 mb temps: Obvs still a long way to go, but 6z GFS was interesting regarding the strat.

NAMs, RGEM, and RAP all show a quick shot of snow tomorrow AM for extreme NE TN and SW VA. Just based on living here as long as I have, the RAP's solution looks realistic to me: I fully expect 27, 8 x 10 glossy photos with circles and arrows illustrating all 27 snowflakes that fall, lol. Seriously, if I could get away tomorrow AM, I would drive to the Grayson Highlands and brave the biting ponies, for my one exact hour of light snow.

TBH, I'm kind of waiting for Jeff to lay the smack down on me for bringing up the MJO again. (And from Twitter no less). Please be merciful Jeff. We weenies have to have hope.

Thoughts? Webb has a Masiello endorsement...

RGEM still showing a few flakes Wed AM: The NAM suite is ever so slightly flatter with the jet to our north and so there isn't as much lift. And just so it's clear, I'm not hoping for some crippling doom storm. I'm shooting for an hour of wet, light snow somewhere in the N. Plateau, SW VA or NE TN. But hey the "Thunder in the Mountains" (TIM model) is coming in with a good run at 12z:

OP Euro wants to make sure we are good and soaked :