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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm with you in the "not get sucked in," but the boom ceiling for this is pretty high if it all comes together just right. A couple things for me that are making it hard not to get sucked in: 1) the fact that csnavywx mentioned the models are having difficulty resolving the breakdown of the Pac ridge. That so far seems to be verifying and resulting in good trends for us up to now. 2) The northern stream energy piece is what makes this one a little different too. The last storm was mostly one shortwave that amped up as it approached the SE. This one has a major second piece dropping in from the arctic. As long as it comes in west of us, it at least gives some light clipper type snow. I don't think its impossible or even unlikely that two storms take the same track in this situation, it's just a question of whether or not that first piece of energy can hold together as it crosses the country and the angle of attack for the second. What we want to see is that member from the GEFS I posted this AM.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I can't find it if it did.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not great resolution, but the basic idea with the CMC ensembles at 12z is that the ridge is a bit steeper and the trough is digging a bit westward:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't have much worth looking at for the 12z CMC ensembles but they are at least loading on stormvistawx and it looks like a tick west from 0z.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    We were talking yesterday about how the energy got squished and what we wanted to see for a better E TN look, so I pulled the really nice GEFS member 18 (for some reason COD [college of dupage] site has it as member 19): I think the above is pretty close to the fence we are swinging for.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    The long range 6z GFS had a few more chances towards the end of its run too. It was also trying to rebuild convection in the Western Pac at the end: Strat still looks interesting in the long range: Nothing screams SSW, but there is some warming on the GFS. I'm sure the severe fans would love a SSWE around Feb 23, lol. I'll be honest, normally I'm ready for spring by mid March, but if 2011 style severe is on the table for spring, yes, bring on the strat. warming and spring blocking.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the post I'm referring to:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    The ridge just squishes it. But if csnavywx was right, and models are breaking down the ridge too quickly, that would allow the northern stream to line up more with the southern vort like on the 12z CMC. If that ridge holds up just a little longer, there is more amp opportunity with that healthy vort as it ejects.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think this run is just going to stretch out the first vort too much.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bob Chill mentioned in the MA forum that it might get cut off, and as deep as it is digging here at 18z, I could see that. Sorry I should have added that the above is the trend over the past 4 runs.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since 0z today on the GFS the initial vort for the weekend system has shifted from Nebraska to Lake Powell at hr 99
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    csnavywx had a good post in the MA forum about the weekend storm, mentioning that he thought that the systems ability to dig and amp was dependent on the breakdown of the ridge off of the west coast. The slower that was to break down, the better chance our storm had. So far the ridge is looking better on the 18z run.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I do want to add that there are other good H5 looks for us (bowling ball upper lows, overrunning, clippers), but that 93 gif is top tier for this kind of a phased bomb storm that the models keep trying to pop somewhere along the coast.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, if you just shifted the CMC's evolution by a couple hundred miles southwest.... as much as these runs have been jumping around, it isn't out of the question, IMO. even as it stands it would be a nice small event for eastern TN.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know what the surface will look like, but the shortwaves look better on the CMC:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, we need this look: shifted west, so that the trough axis is over Alabama. Here is the ideal vort map evolution for east TN, IMO: There have been some runs that looked close to that, but too far east, for the most part. But they were in that territory with 960 lows off of Hatteras.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it will still be too late for our area, aside from whatever one s/w alone can produce. But it is pretty darn amazing that there could be such differences at H5 out west, but still produce a similar solution. Timing differences aside, the s/w being that far west early on, this run still produces a similar outcome to 6z wrt surface weather along the east coast: It's almost like this sort of a phased storm, whether it is out to sea, or more inland, is something the pattern just wants to produce now.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    The phase between the second shortwave and the one above, happens almost overhead east TN.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look how much further west it is: at this hour, it looks like it is headed for the Gulf at a good angle.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    The northern shortwave is nearly 500 miles west of 6z, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I think was looking at the southern s/w thinking that was part of the storm, it may have been on a few runs ago, but I guess it's the n.stream piece over UT and CO at hour 99 I should be watching.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the N stream shortwave over Canada is running a little faster on the 12z GFS wrt to next weekend possible storm. Might catch the southern stream s/w a bit quicker on this run
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we need to start a betting pool for which runs will show a big east coast storm and which won't over the next few days. 6z GFS looked a little better than 0z, but not nearly what we saw at 18z yesterday. 6z Euro looked like it might be a little better than 0z , but that's only based on extrapolating 500 mb vort maps past hour 90. I'm basically ready fro Friday just so we can see what happens. This next weekend chances notwithstanding, I think we need a reshuffle if we want better chances at a storm. There is just so much wind in the mid and upper levels in the eastern CONUS, that even when we get a nice southern stream shortwave (like this Tuesday) it gets sheared apart when it gets to the southeast. I kinda wish the MJO signal would just go ahead, and come out of the COD in the Maritime Continent, and start the same trek through 4/5/6 that it took in December. Yeah, that would make things less favorable for a while, but hopefully we could get it back to 7/8/1 by late February. But it's just dicking around in the COD for the next 10 - 15 days as though the tropical convection zones were on Oprah: "you get convection, and you get some convection, you all get convection!!" The BOM evolution is just bizzaro, but I would take it: It sees the main signal going backwards through 6->5->4->3->2->1->8 by 20 February, but all in the COD. What happened to our December -NAO? Do we just have waayyyy too much motion in the N. Hemisphere to get one of those now? GFS and EPS still show some arctic blocking, the -AO y'all were talking about recently, so will be interesting to see how that plays out towards mid February.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the mean vort map:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPS: Not that this hasn't been said 1000 times at this point, but not a bad look at this range for H5, precip., and temps.
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