Holston_River_Rambler

Looks like the 18z HRRR has a little more consolidated low SW of Atlanta at hour 26:

Is this one as big as Pinatubo?

The one morning I choose not to look at Himarawi 8, there's a massive volcanic eruption overnight

Hey man, I planned ahead for such circumstances, lol. I have a flizzard video from Lone Mt. State Forest:

Here's an experiment. Here is what the RGEM sounding has for me right now: That ain't bad. Neighborhood weather station is at 38 and we have snow falling. I mean, light snow and maybe some rain mix. If we had some good rates I think the boundary layer would dynamically cool.

And it is snowing again up here in MoCo. Very wet snow, lol.

IMO, based on the soundings, the hi res models really think we will suffer from insolation and downsloping tomorrow. It could be right, but based on what the soundings show, I would guess precip type will be rate dependent. I have a hard time believing that there won't be snow if we get good rates and are in the deformation zone and there's not really much of a warm nose. Here is a 12z RGEM sounding from just north of Chatt: If there's a warm 850 or 925 layer, it can rain even below freezing, but when temps are dropping with height, it just seems snow is more likely. We do live in the valley though, so if anything can go wrong....

I've been trying to see what the pivotal soundings say at TRI, but it pivotal apparently thinks I want a severe sounding instead of a winter sounding for that area. I tried to click a normally good down sloping area like N. Sevier or Greene county and it still says snow, even though the model shows rain, but where it shows snow in N. Grainger or Hancock county, the sounding guesses rain as the precip, lol.

I tried that and got down to Meigs county and the soundings showed precip. type as snow Sadly it said rain in Chatt.

Clicking on some of the soundings on Pivotal, it looks like some of the precip it is rendering as rain is borderline snow. I clikced on Knoxville on this map: and got this sounding: Looks like it may just be extremely shallow boundary layer warmth and not a warm nose.

Oh yeah, for my area we're once again invoking the weenie rule that lets us use upstream graphics if they are more favorable.

WRF ARW2 has the ultimate Holston snow hole: But the soundings on this model for my area show snow as the precip type when the model renders it as rain.

I upgraded myself to light snow with some nickel and dime sized flakes mixed in on my drive home. It’s let up some now.

Getting a few flurries on Lone Mt. in Morgan county. I’m at about 1500 feet pretty close to the bottom of the mountain.

No clue how this will impact it, but looks like the shortwave is running about 45 minutes to an hour behind where the mesoscale models had it.

Just noticed that MRX dropped a bomb at the end of their disco, for areas above 4000' Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but for now will let the WSW handle it.

Hi y'all. first of all hope everyone scores big with this one. But I also just noticed that MRX was mentioning the possibility of a blizzard warning for their side of the mts above 4000'. I couldn't imagine winds would be less over there with that 850 flow. Didn't see any mention from GSP or Blacksburg, but I may have just missed it. From the overnight disco: Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but for now will let the WSW handle it.

That's true too, there are so many variables that's why I was a little uneasy about interpreting it. One thing is slightly different, but how does that impact the other players on the field?

Well that's what I was about to say, lol. The 1,000,000 dollar question. I'm not sure exactly how to interpret it. Jack Sillin (I think a met grad student at Cornell) seemed to think it might be tied to the NAM being slower and more cut off, but the trend gif he is showing, also seems to be showing it trending south. I think we'd want to look for more confluence over New England (blue dots indicating 500mb heights are lower there) and the shortwave's trough being deeper than forecast (also blue dots). That website also verifies 700 and 850 mb temps, as compared to how the GFS initializes.

I'll probably be asleep when the 0z radiosondes come in, but if anyone wants to, here is a site to see how real time data is lining up with the GFS's modeled rendering: https://cyclonicwx.com/analysis/ Here's how he interpretted it at 12z:

I had to replace my dishwasher this afternoon. Any exciting model wavering since 12z? 18z Euro should be out in a few minutes.

In some of those "mix" areas there doesn't seem to be a warm nose (I only checked Morgan and Roane though) at hr 54.

Looks like the 12z Euro stills tries to run the 850 low up the valley, but in a tiny increment, I think it was better than 6z.

Euro coming in a little South and west with the shortwave over Oklahoma.