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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know, I think there is a little support from the 6z GEFS members: Sorry for the horrible resolution, but it's all I've got. But there are a few members who take a similar track
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro wasn't really there yet, but IMO it did trend that way, with the energy dropping in more westerly and trying to round the trough:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's crazy how the last two runs of the GFS have turned it into a full blown Miller A type coastal, instead of an OTS suppressed storm.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Mr. Kevin
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is kind of what the tropical forcing has been doing all winter, at least that's how it seems to me. It will get into a better place and just as it seems it will either set up shop there or progress into and even better phase, it takes a step back. Each time it starts moving again though, it does get a little better than the last time it progressed before the regression. Some sort of blend of the Euro's progression and the BOM progression seems to have worked out pretty well so far. I'm not taking these plots day-by-day literally, but sort of as a general idea of the progression and regression. BOM seems to have generally had the right idea, but sometimes has been too quick and the Euro has curbed it's enthusiasm, while eventually going roughly where the BOM says it will go long term: TBH I wouldn't be surprised if the 6z GFS is sniffing what the above RMMs are cooking. But the GFS is hungry for a progressive pattern and change and it ain't dinner time just yet.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    For anyone (like me) who was watching the 18z GFS roll in and wondered why there weren't more hits, those Baja/ Cali upper lows killed us. They helped shred the energy that was taking aim at us as it cruised in from Canada. I feel like a good (but not the only) trajectory for vorts to hit us from is the narrowest part of Idaho, to Shreveport, LA. The jet was slingin' em at us, but unless one of those pieces can overpower the Cali/ Baja low, it shreds it. Luckily the Euro doesn't show energy getting hung up there for as long as the 18z GFS.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's the elusive octopus pattern on the happy hour GFS:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's just so tantalizing. All that STJ moisture getting pulled up and thrown at us:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    The wind is really kicking up here on the plateau as a front drops in: You can see it running down I-24 on the velocity loop, and..... that wouldn't be a lightning strike near Frozen head, would it?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the 500mb reanalysis and MSLP. Sorry it is going so fast, but giphy wouldn't let me adjust the speed once I made it. But the low went from a 1012 to a 971 in 24 hours:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    @PowellVolz a wild storm that formed in the Caribbean and ran up the coast, sadly missing the poor Mid Atlantic folks.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Others have said it in different forums and subforums, but this mid to late week system is trying to give me some Jan 2018 vibes:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS was pretty close to an interesting solution mid to late week: I don't see much hope that the energy combines far enough west for most of us, but....
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    And finally, just saw someone bring up the RGEM at southernwx, so I'll throw this out there too: The CMC shows the energy continuing to slide SE after this interaction and the NAM has little to no interaction, but something to watch I guess.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    In other news the overnight Euro shows the possibility of a couple of "waves riding a front" scenarios. GFS doesn't want anything to do with the first one and the CMC doesn't want anything to do with the second one. The pieces of energy on the Euro that cause the wave are pretty small, so not sure ensembles are much help. Just something to watch for. SOI still dropping and negative, at -27 this AM. I like the Euro's RMM this AM. It seems to think we just keep doing what we've been doing and maybe do it all over again. It brings uus right back to where we are now late month, lol. Ye olden BOM does pretty much the same, but at a lower amplitude, then takes us through 1 and 2: North American models still haven't updates from the CPC's source. Convection near Polynesia for the past 2 days looks steady as she goes: Overnight long range ensemble patterns, for interested parties:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the temps are rising pretty quickly, so hopefully it won't matter:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of surprised there isn't any talk on the NWS or media of possible freezing rain over parts of East TN. Maybe the low level warm air will win out.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    If we can get thunder and lightning, while there is still old snow on the ground, and rain falling, I think that would be a whole new folklore sign.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    We need to try and squeeze out a thunder clap or two over the mts as this heads east tonight: You know, just for fun....
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    To follow up on what John said, the 0z GFS was what I call the space invaders pattern. The northern stream and the STJ keep shooting energy at each other like the old video game:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Big SOI drop overnight:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry my home brew model is kinda low-res.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's ideal.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    One option might be that the radar was detecting some virga from a narrow band of high clouds moving in: But, the radar site wasn't too far away and I would think if it were virga, it wouldn't show up so close to the site, indicating that it is at least as low level as the upslope. I really wish those high clouds weren't there so I could see the low level flow on IR imagery. We've seen a band in upslope south of Knoxville before, and the only thing I can think of is that some vagary in the low level flow in the valley reoriented that band towards the ENE
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