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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
From a friend in Oak Ridge: -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Apparently TVA has started rolling blackouts. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Found a cool visualization of this cold front on Twitter: -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Pixie dust type flakes and pouring with nothing on the radar. I wish it was daylight. I think we would have had blizzard conditions here for a few minutes. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Here is what I have. Sorry for having the camera turned up and down. I do be sleepy: -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's snowing pretty good right now. As I type heard a tree come down, lol. I have a youtube video processing with the snow and the wind. Will post when it is ready. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Same boat as you. Wind howling, a few flakes. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Winds are shifting up here in MoCo. More of a NW component now. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think we just want to stay in the left exit region of the jet as long as possible. The front is doing a lot of the lift and the jet is enhancing it. I’m not sure how to tell what the jet stream looks like in real time in the situation though. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like rain on the Cookeville webcam for now. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hmmm: -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Stepped out for firewood and was just thinking the same thing. First cold front I can remember in along while where we could say it has a cold wind in front of it! -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
The radar doesn't look too bad. You can see that either some are cutting in and out or they are having trouble with how low the precip is: Even a little bit of a connection to the Gulf. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Might could be time to whip out ye olden topo map for analysis and disucssion : I'll be interested to see how my area does, since I'm in a limbo situation. 1300 feet or so, just on the edge of the plateau: -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think that was a textbook ninja Carvers -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like Cumberland and Fentress counties in a WSW now too -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Well, I thought it couldn't go up much more..... At some point that has to drop pretty precipitously.
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Front is pretty easy to see on the radar this AM: -
Fall/Winter 22-23 General Observations
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Winter Solstice looking SE over the Great Eastern Valley from Frozen Head SP: -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX did go with the jet enhancing frontogenesis for the forcing mechanism wrt the front so hopefully that is a good sign for snowfall. I mean, it isn't the big story and it ain't a lot of snow, but even a crust would make the arctic chill more enjoyable for me. -
Speaking of Ninos I've been struck lately by the STJ involvement in a storm around the New Year as depicted by the GFS: Watch that little jet streak over Mexico get pulled up into the Pac jet. GFS may not have the details, but it has been very insistent on something like that happening. To be clear I don't think there is a chance for snow with this, just interested to see the STJ
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I think we've been in a pretty stable pattern since October: 2.5 warm weeks , 1.5 cold weeks. If that continues we should rotate back through around around Jan. 20th give or take a few days. If it doesn't, we probably have a major pattern change. Raindancewx was mentioning that 84-85 was a good (but not perfect) analog so far as this winter has progressed. He thought maybe Jan 20 - Feb 20 was the best chance for our forum area.
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
If anyone is looking for a reason to hug the NAM this afternoon during happy hour, you could consider that it has been trending ever so slightly from a purely N --> S precip shield associated with the arctic front to one that is more SSW --> NNE. I feel like that orientation is better for any anafrontal sort of lift for precip.
