Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Have you returned to the homeland from your venture to the far north? -
Seeing some fatties mixing in at the Moore's road exit on 65 south of Brentwood.
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46 up here in Morgan County and it feels like the tundra, lol. There's definitely some atmospheric battling going on at my location on the SE edge of the plateau in Morgan County. Last Jan. was when I think the HRRR told me the boundary layer would be problematic and that day there was a steady wind out of the SW. I felt that wind a few minutes ago when I went out to walk the doggos, but there is a stronger one blowing in from the NW more often than not.
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Ripping fatties?
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Not only does it downslope and warm the area we were talking about earlier, but dries it out as well:
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Down to around 49 here in Morgan County. Gusty, cold NW wind and light rain has begun.
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Actual arctic front starting to show up on radar into Eastern KY and closing in on me and John:
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Although, the 15z HRRR upped amounts near @AMZ8990
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15z HRRR actually has a corridor almost directly south of Frozen Head/ Cross mt that takes longer to change over:
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I think part of what the models see is some downsloping off of the Frozen Head mts. Makes sense with a NE or NNE wind.
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I hope so. I just remember the HRRR indicating something like this with a system last year, and it played out that way. But, this storm a whole different beast and I have never seen such an energetic storm since I've been posting on here, so I will go with your alls experience.
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12z GFS give Jeff more snow than me, lol:
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But man, I would love to have a cabin stocked up in the Grayson Highlands tonight!
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I think you're going to do much better than me with this one Reb. I suspect I will have boundary layer problems until the precip is just starting to move out, but the ~50 miles between me and Blount county will make a ton of difference. The low starts to deepen as the precip is moving out for me, but I think foothills areas will get really good rates for a while. The 14z HRRR actually shows areas closer to the mts turning before me in SE Morgan county.
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12z RGEM shows major mixing issues for those of us in the central and southern valley just along the edge of the plateau:
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6z HRRR: 12z HRRR
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12z HRRR looks like it is just a tad slower and deeper with the energy. I guess we'll see what that translates to at the surface.
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Although he is talking about the mid Atlantic, I think some of that applies to NE TN and SW VA.
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Nice catch from the MA thread about the meteorology of the system:
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I know, I'm the same way. Literally was just thinking, "Is this even real? WTF is happening?" as I was reading the NWS Blacksburg disco
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6z Euro bumps totals up again:
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Or I guess I could have been smart and just used the WPC one:
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The boundary our low will ride overnight is setting up: I guess this is one of the reasons we always want to see the shortwave tilt negatively, so that it backs the low level flow and pulls the slp back N, in this case (hopefully), tucks it up on the leeside of the Apps. You can see the flow starting to back on satellite over central AL as higher clouds build back in from south to north:
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I just want to make sure that y’all know that my soil temp post earlier was in no way meant to suggest that accumulation would be more or less. I saw that some folks on southernwx were bringing soil temps up, so I thought “hmmmm I wonder what those look like here in Morgan county.” I checked it out and saw that they were quite variable depending on the boundary layer and was impressed at how quickly they could lower.
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IMO a NAMing incoming.
