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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Could be an interesting end to this GFS run
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 15 would be a nice present:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe they put something in its algorithm from way back in the FV3 days when it used to produce those wild snow storms late in its run.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing we can say, is at least the pattern can kicking seems to have stopped, at least for now.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll probably be able to kayak in my front yard after this next batch of rain moves in:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro had an interesting take on the big system next week: Might could be not bad for upslope? The rest of that pattern doesn't look too bad either. I think this storm window is the same one the GFS called like 10 days ago, but had it as a storm moving WSW into Norfolk: Speaking of the GFS, it looks pretty similar to the Euro in the window: I know I just posted that time frame at 500 mb yesterday afternoon, but I fully expected it to be 100% different on the GFS this morning with how that model has been swinging lately. At least this is a dollop of consistency.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it depends on which phase it initializes in. A few years ago Webb had some research that if the models initialize it in phase 7, the GFS suite does better than the Euro. But other than that I'm not sure.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Pac looks pretty good (Euro) to much improved (CMC) on the 12z OPs late in their runs. Will it hold? Will it flood? Will severe weather blow us away next week?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Creeks are looking healthy at Frozen head. Highest volume in a looong time. Judge Branch and tributaries:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think digital snow counts if the person seeing it looks at GOES lightning data!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally got some nice western Pac convection: But as others have noted the TC in the Indian Ocean is probably skewing the western Pac convection's impact to the overall pattern. Long range GFS develops another TC right behind that one and the Euro isn't quite as excited about it, so maybe that has some impact on how each model resolves things downstream? Either way I'm just glad to see some convection developing in the western Pac. Both the Euro and GFS have the MJO staying low amplitude in the COD and getting back to 8 in the COD in about 10 days.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looked to be heading somewhere nice at the end of its run.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe the GEFS control would work? That ensemble might still be run on an older version of the GFS core?
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a Maue tweet that I saw on southernwx: I think that is the 500mb pattern N hemisphere pattern.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It has, but supposedly the newest one had lower verification scores than the old one. Not sure exactly which parameter was used for the score though. I'll see if I can dig up that post.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nothing like that first 34 degree rain to set the mood, lol!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually, looking back at the beautiful 18z GFS run from yesterday, the storm window was a bit later in next week. But it still had a nice 50/50.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Models still have the storm window this AM. Euro shows the NAO blocking the flow and we get a pseudo 50/50 over the Gulf of St Lawrence: OP's solution develops the storm too far west, but hey, I'm guessing this won't be the exact way it works out in 200+ hours. GFS has the same wave, but no trapped 50/50 to push it south. We're dealing with two cut offs to thread the needle for the 13 - 15th storm. One an anticyclone and one a cyclone (-NAO and possible bootleg 50/50), so I suspect model mayhem will continue. I think the best case scenario is the 18z run from yesterday (posted a few posted back) and the worst (for now, lol) is 6z GFS this AM (low cutting over Minnesota). Maybe we can split the difference and get some upslope? Window has not closed though. The more I see of this particular -NAO, the more I the more I think we have to have a 50/50 of some sort. Without that, as heights rise in front of a system, with no Pac help to force the track to our south, these storms are all going to try to force the SER to connect to the NAO, and then cut. I think someone mentioned it in the MA forum, but we could have big model swings in short periods of time for discrete storm windows, just based on if some random little low gets stuck in just the right way underneath the block.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAO definitely doing it’s job at 12z!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Op GFS at 6z was another ideal La Nina run. I think I could draw up a pattern like that if you just told me La Nina. You can even make a really fast gif of the run and it doesn't matter for our area. Not much changes: 0z Euro was a bit different. It ends at 240 with a nice trough: I know ensembles are better at long range, but it just struck me this morning how badly the pattern could potentially work out if the GFS is right. As we've been saying, the GEFS and EPS still like the better pattern day 10+. So at least we still have that. GEFS: EPS: Western Pac looking a little better (even if still not great) with some convection north of New Guinea: Strat split seems to have worked out and is within 90 hours now: Both the Euro and GFS show it reconsolidating after this. Not sure how healthy it will be though.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully one of these years!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if the suprema la nina look on the long range GFS is partially caused by the big convective flare up in perhaps one of the worst places for us to see it. This is a gif of the sat. imagery over the SW Pac over the past 5 days: I wish I could make it go a little slower, but not sure how to adjust speed on giphy. Notice at the beginning there was very little south of Vietnam and Laos, but some pretty good flare ups recently. I think the flare up over N. Australia that drifts east towards the areas E and SE of New Guinea is associated with the MJO movement into the west Pac, but as seems typical of La Nina, it all get shunted SE. That convection created a big rise and now a big drop (but not to negative numbers yet) in the SOI. In the past 7 days it has gone from approx. -4, up to 30, and now back to 15. Interestingly, the overall 30 average of the SOI has been lowering: I guess that's a lot of huffing and puffing just to talk myself into waiting to see what happens once the block gets established and give the tropical convection some time to keep working itself out. I think the long range OP model runs can, for the continental US pattern, be really dependent on how the tropical Pacific looks for any given run's initialization. Even if it does just turn into our typical la Nina, think of the poor flooding rains we missed out on last year! We could get started on those early this year to help with drought striken areas! Even the WPC gives a 5-7" total over the next 168 hours near MBY:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, since y'all have brought up the Nature signs... Birds and squirrels have been behaving like the winter of all winters is coming to us on the plateau. I actually thought about trying to get a picture of them around my house, but never got around to it.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    That 18z GFS was the ultimate La Niña run!
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