Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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And I should add, unfortunately, east of BNA.
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Twill be a fine NAMing for N of 40 areas, I believe!
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Sounds like you know more than I do, so I'm happy to go with your analysis! I guess I'm getting so jaded about the whole thing that I default to "what could go wrong" mode, lol.
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I wonder what implications, if any, that kicker digging more would have on the evolution of this system. Not saying that will happen, but if the Sillin info is an indication, that kicker might end up digging more based on the Pac set up and that might allow more room for this one to amplify.
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6z Saturday at around 5PM vs 12z at the same time: Much more precip to the west in OK and Arkansas
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Gonna be better than the 6z I think, but not sure by how much.
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NAM's energy already looks better at 12z. (past 3 runs)
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That may mean it is digging more already, which I think would be good.
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Sillin is primarily posting for NE folks, but it will be interesting to see how/ if this correlates to the 12z runs here.
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Normally I would like several of the members being SE of us. This is a WAA precip slug, at least at first, and will likely verify N and NW, but I'm not sure if that precip in NC is due to the members seeing the system further south, or CAD. I suspect the later. I'm at 1300 feet on the plateau and am glad this one is coming through at night, lol. I still am not sure I like my chances.
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6z EPS members: Control Mean:
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Here are the GFS snow growth panels. I've never had access to these before, so I don't have experience using them, but thought I'd throw them up here in case anyone wanted to look: Here is the legend:
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Kuchera ratios aren't available for the 6 and 18z runs, but it's probably a good bet that the ratios will be less than 10:1.
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6z Euro:
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But it is nice to see it not make a significant jump back toward a more suppressed solution.
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The systems evolution wrt 6hr qpf and 500 vort: 850 temps: I'm guessing it sees light rates and marginal temps.
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18z Euro coming in now. I think it is going to be pretty similar to 12z, maybe a smidge (and I mean little smidge) flatter with the energy, but not much.
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Sorry about the last one, that was 12z GEFS by mistake. Here are 18z members:
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And there’s still energy in the SW that’s gonna run that boundary lol -
I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol
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Twitter convo about the storm re: initialization error and RAOB network:
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The supposedly new version of the Ukie. I can't really tell if it is much different from what I posted earlier:
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For the connoisseur of snow maps, I just saw the weatherbell maps on southernwx and they look better than my weathermodels map. If you're into that sort of thing, like, me, lol.
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I suck at them though. Almost always a given if I anticipate X change in a model, it will go the other way.
