Holston_River_Rambler

@jrips27 I just thought of another possibility for you: https://parks.ky.gov/corbin/parks/resort/cumberland-falls-state-resort-park I rented a cabin there to try and chase a storm in 2019. Storm didn't work out, but it's a pretty place. One of the few places you can see a moonbow on clear nights. The cabins are basically their own little hotel rooms and they have a larger resort hotel that reminds me of Bryce Canyon National Park's. It is only about 15 - 20 minutes off the interstate. The last 10 minutes or so is on a 2 lane state route, so not sure how quickly they will plow it.

A cabin in Pickett State park would probably be a good option.

What even is that little closed off isobar SE of Knoxville that the GFS thinks it sees? Some kind of meso low?

We need his memes

Not an exact match, but not far in some respects from the RGEM

18z GFS giphified

GFS is running

I'm not thinking straight right now. My mind is wracked with the grief of what I will likely miss.

In my defense COD has a floater just over the Carolinas and part of TN right now, so I clicked on that one for the highest resolution. But it did cross my mind. Sorry:

You know, we've not had to pull out the old "the energy hasn't been sampled yet" weenie rule for this one yet. Hopefully that's a good sign. The players are lining up: That northern energy is really digging in, almost north to south. It's after that southern disturbance and it's going to catch it.

Tod Howell WBIR throws down the TV met gauntlet: "snow will stick to itself" "rates will overcome"

Lord have mercy:

3km NAM:

Some of those sleet soundings on the 18z NAM have pretty narrow windows for melting. We will hug MRX: "I believe the strong CAA (and resulting increase insnow ratios) and rapid cooling of the atmosphere due to dynamiccooling will support a bulk of the QPF falling as snow."

That's ideal. I want to be stuck in Boone for 3 - 4 weeks. I will be at the base of Grandfather mountain and want to have to march up to the summit to see any hope of rescue from the HISTORIC snow drifts that approach the swinging bridge. Hopefully the NWS will have to invent a new warning criterium for what I will experience. Ultra Blizzard Warning, colored black like the color my flesh would be after only minutes out of doors unprepared. I want to see the tears of those who dread snow and ice to freeze as the flow down their frostbiten faces. They'll have to rename the month of March "Snow," it will be so historic, so dreadful, so cold, so snowy. Roads will be impassable and antifreeze frozen. Spring Break will be a mere legend, a long forgotten dream in the hearts of children, covered like the daffodils and redbuds in feet of icy cement. I want to read a NWS forecast discussion with words like "isothermal," and phrases like "quasigeostropic forcing out the wazoo," "frontogentic mesoscale banding," and "isentropic upthrust." The lifting mechanisms need to be compared to geologic forces, but playing out in meteorological time scales. Heavy. At. Times.

Even gets me in on the snow in Boone with a flatter look. I'm not sure how flat this thing will be though.

Oh yeah, that is eerie, lol

3hr mean snowfall: light green = 1-2 and dark green = 2-3

I've been watching them for most storms and may have missed a few runs here and there, but IMO that is the best SREF run of the season, lol.

SREF Plumes are......uuhhhh......interesting... Might be a fun 12z suite incoming.

6z Euro looks pretty much steady to me:

Hi all over and in the far blue mountains. Sadly I will be just west of Boone (halfway between Boone and banner Elk) for what right looks like a nice plateau TN snow. I've never been there for a storm like this, so what are some reasonable expectations? Most of the models keep the snow west of the mts, but I also know elevation can make a huge difference once the low moves NE and you get the thermal profile crashing. Looks like I will be right at 3200 feet, just off 105 and up a hill. I also suspect the models have a hard time resolving rain and snow lines in the mountains, but don't really have any experience.

Not enough coffee to dig into exciting things like frontogenesis right not, but I think we had a pretty nice slp pass on some of those runs. Been prepping for my Boone trip which all but guarantees someone gets hammered. I'll be following along though and may force the people I'm staying with to drive me the 20 minutes up to Beech Mt.