Holston_River_Rambler

I think the big TPV chunk over southern Canada or the northern US (depending on the model/ run/ time stamp) is just giving models fits. It's like having a big storm trying to clear the east coast and trying to see how it changes the flow, except it is on a continental level. And this comment is aimed more after the storm Carver's is talking about above, say in the days 5 - 10 time range.

As John mentioned earlier the UKMET has been pretty bad this year, at least in terms the details over CONUS. Here is the overnight new UKMET, hopefully it improves the model's performance:

Where are you getting the Para from Carvers? I've been trying to look at it since yesterday. Pivotal and weathermodels haven't updated. Does weather bell have it? I was kinda hoping NCEP had cut off data since they might be about to make it the OP GFS

Look how far south it has snow with the last wave (4) that was coming onshore in CA at the end of its run: a 1056 with all that energy plowing into and beneath it.

Here are all three waves on the Euro:

I'd like to see just what wacky solution the Euro would throw out after the end of its run with all this energy:

The Euro has yet another wave coming onshore in CA towards the end of its run. That one would have to run under the TPV piece that it says will be over Minn. at that time.

Be interesting to see how the EPS members deal with both waves.

If not amplify, at least get the mid level flow out of the SW.

I think the Euro will make this next one a slider. The TPV over Manitoba should allow this second wave to amplify. But, I'm not watching the temps as much, so maybe it ends up being too warm, based on what y'all are saying.

Should be interesting to see what it does with the energy in Canada and the SW as the run continues:

New piece coming onshore in CA at hour 168 might have a better chance at being Carver's slider:

No precip panels yet, but suspect that it will be a minor overrunning event. The TPV strings out the N. stream piece too much to amplify. Talking about the two pieces of energy I mentioned above, not a reply to Carver's

Looks like it may try to phase these two pieces

Looks like it is going to to go for something again post hr 160ish...

Looks like the Euro, verbatim, is a little too far north for the Sun - Mon storm, except for SWVA and NE TN.

This all could be for nothing though... The true prognosticator of our weather fortunes cometh today... Time to do yo thang @BNAwx

Here's an interesting tidbit: WPC's 500 mb forecast for days 3 - 7, overlaid with an Ensemble mean (not sure if that is a major global blend mean, or what) and ensemble spread. The green lines are the WPCs forecast and the black are from the ENS Mean. The orange - red fill are the area of greatest spread. Never really looked at it much (mea culpa), but it is interesting to see how WPC uses the ensemble mean. I'm not saying this is better or worse than what we normally look at, but I find it interesting to see where the forecasters sharpen things, as opposed to the ENS mean, smoothing them out, especially the ridge over the Canadian Rockies being stronger.

Overnight EPS members:

I must have gotten under a nice band overnight. A healthy crust of snow (maybe 1/4 inch) and it is still pouring little flakes. But wait, there's more...

Good looking slug of moisture dropping in from OH: Looks like John will be right on the western edge, so me and The CumbCo folks are probably out. Fountainguy is probably gonna get hammered by it.

New GFS (version 16, supposedly operational at some point this month) has two storms as well. It suppresses the Euro's second one, but has another overrunning event right afterwards.

Not much here in MoCo, sadly. Got the higher winds John mentioned too. Looked like it was about tp pour the snow, but nothing.

We gotta balance out that 12z suite. Here is the new 12z UKMET (out to 168 hours now) with a cutter:

Here are some individual city charts: https://imgur.com/a/gD6QByv I put several in there and it would take up too much screen on here, so you'll have to click and look for the closest one for you.