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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like a little more confluence, might be a tick SE.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I dug around on weathermodels and found the NBM: Looks like the NBM is more of a blend of their low end amounts and the 10% chance amounts
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't have access to the NBM anymore on Pivotal, but I'm going to go with that map is the NBM.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    In the qpf frames it looked like it downsloped TRI quite a bit.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro (no Kuchera available)
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip. type maps take forever on weathermodels for the 6z and 18z runs of the Euro, but here is the 18z Euro qpf: Only out to hour 90, so still some snowfall afterwards:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 18z Euro is slightly deeper with the southern energy, compared to 12z, out to hour 66.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Should have the 18z Euro in range this evening. Wishing I hadn't cancelled that Storm Vista weather subscription for the ultra fast Euro, lol. Thanks for all the updates, I've been out on a hike on the upper Cumberland plateau today. Beautiful calm day, but the cliffs were hanging on to the cold of winter.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wasn't it the first one of the season that was doing almost this exact same dance? I know, like you said, they've all been pretty dicey, but this one's projected track looks very similar to a specific one. I went back through the gifs and it looks like the it was the Jan 2 -3 storm. This is how it looked at around 7 days: Here is is once we got in HRRR range: I think it ended up being a pretty stout single shortwave: This one looks like it has more of a n. stream component to it: Kind of like the one in late January: But remember how that one jumped around so much at hour 100 and ended up with a strung out tail (below)? The Euro is trying that: Do the shorter wavelengths help us out and keep the southern energy stronger in March? I'm going to be in Boone this weekend, so that may give plateau areas an advantage, lol. It's a good looking Miller A mean on the GEFS. How's TIMs looking today? After its last performance I think we need some tornados in shoulder seasons for it to be fully charged.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    We have the Carter's Valley snow hole and the Hardin Valley snow hole on the 6z GFS run: We also have a Strat split right now: With the potential for another one in the long range. Convection from last weeks western Pac kind of puttered out so we never saw the big SOI drop I thought we would, but I was pretty impressed by how the MJO just tanked into the COD this week.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the convection from last Sunday has pushed into the western Pac a little quicker than I was expecting. With that look I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge SOI drop one day later this week or next weekend. Now to be fair the SOI was almost +20 today, but there is also a tropical cyclone creeping around near Darwin. Looks like there is also some decent convection firing in the eastern Indian Ocean, so I guess we'll see what that does as the week goes on. I still think we might have a window centered on the ides of March, plus or minus a few days before or after.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Mostly rain here with a little bit of very wet snow mixed in.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same mixed bag here in Bearden area. About to head back to Morgan county so I’ll be interested to see what it is doing up that way.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Obed is living the dream today: https://fb.watch/bnGvZy9M-q/
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think we're in the worst of the "long range modeling having deteriorating looks" phase of Feb. Tropical convection is ugly, but chugging along: It still has to make it further east and not die out when and if it gets into more favorable reasons. I'm sure there will be a couple of tropical cyclones to delay it as well, but I think the second week of March holds some hope. There's some talk in the MA forum of a -AO as well. Or I could be totally wrong. But hey, at least the floods look like they end today for a week! And no one has 14 inches of rain, thankfully.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some pics from the book of faces of the Emory at Oakdale. Looks like it got pretty close: A creek that flows into the Emory at Oakdale: Source thread: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10228796306238170&set=pcb.2030041027163489
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flood warning for Emory River at Oakdale.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just got the most vivid lightning since fall. That creates a special, off run of the TIMs model. 60%.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    More lightning and thunder now. 50%
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lightning off in the distance to the south. 40%.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thunder and lightning overnight. TIMs model is 30% charged.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The only way this is going to work is if we get some nice thunder this week. Nary a rumble since I can remember. TIMs is out of juice.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sadly I cancelled Storm Vista, or I would show the Ukie. Euro tries for some last second magic for TRI though:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry I didn't mean that to come out as challenge to the "winter's over" statement. It could be for me, for all I know. I had just been thinking about the MJO for the past couple days and was thinking about making a post after I looked at it. I hadn't looked at it since last week and it just struck me how much it seemed to have progressed. If nothing else it seems to be persistent, but weak this winter, but it also seems to get sort of hung up for a bit in some areas.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    The real team to beat is team EPS member 18:
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