Holston_River_Rambler

@Stovepipe Here are what I have so far for the EPS (hrs 60 - 240) 500 mb 850 temp: MSLP: 24hr precip: snowfall mean: city charts should be out in a bout an hour in weathermodels individual members for the SE section:

Me too! Lol!

@Stovepipe I see some dollops along I-40.....

yeah. here's the full run.

Only though hour 204. I couldn't wait for it to load any longer

I think it's going to hit us with the big overrunning storm again, too.

Oh LAWD, what's the Euro about to do???

Updated UKMET today, at least on F5wx: Still not loaded yet, though.

Just a dusting on elevated surfaces here. I think I'm occasionally getting a little downslope off of Frozen Head, depending on the flow. Looks like there's been some lee side convergence? for areas in the valley to the lee of the Frozen Head mts.

Interesting end to the Euro. Looked really good, except for the energy over the Lakes. That was left over from and earlier storm. Unclear if it would end up suppressing the STJ energy or phasing with it, since there was even more energy dropping in through the Dakotas: Just looking at the precip map, not sure I've ever seem any map as pretty as what the OP Euro was showing at its end. Anticipation is the best part, after all, lol. This is the kind of stuff that is usually just on one EPS member.

Euro is going to be close to another really nice event towards the end of it's run, but not quite sure how it will evolve as the run plays out.

Dr. Schmaybe's naught bits (includes upslope event the next couple of days): Evolution on the Euro:

Dr. Schmaybe and the CMC showing a storm around 160 hours. Dr. Schmaybe: The Canuck:

NAM 3km is keeping expectations realistic for Le Conte <read with heavy sarcasm>.

I started one @Shocker0 (I even put a special shout out in the tags, lol).

I'll open this one up with a MRX discussion: Upper low over the Ohio river valley today will dig southeast as shortwave dives southwest from the central plains into the deep south and helps establish longwave trough over the Appalachian chain by late tonight. This trough shifts to eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon but does not pull away from the east coast until Canadian shortwave drops into upstream side of trough and helps kick it off to the east Wed night. This will set the stage for a prolonged period of northwest flow over the forecast area, and subsequent significant snowfall event over the east TN mountains. Light snow will be ongoing over the mountains by Monday morning but inbound vort lobe associated with upper low will kick off a 12 to 18hr period of moderate to heavy snow, at times, across the area. Temps at H85 drop to -8C to -10C during this time and should help to boost snowfall ratios into the mid teens most likely. This is especially true given that saturation will extend well into/above the DGZ, which is not typical of your average NW flow snowfall event. Successive periods of 0.15 to 0.25" should therefore yield some 7-10" snowfall amounts in the Smokies and adjacent TN mountain zones Monday through Monday evening. Snowfall rates will taper off tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, but an additional 2-4" would certainly not be out of the question during that time. Moisture thins out during the day Tuesday but one last vort lobe moving through Tuesday evening may help snow showers continue, especially in southwest VA and the far northeastern TN mountains, through Tuesday night and early Wed morning. Storm total amounts of 10-12" in the Smokies seem very reasonable, and may even be a bit underdone, with 7-9" possible south of there into Monroe county and also north of the Smokies into Unicoi county. It should be noted here that these values will be for areas above 2,500 ft in elevation. Below that, totals will likely be 40-50 percent lower. Elsewhere, uncertainty in snowfall totals is a little higher. The northern plateau, higher terrain of southwest Virginia, and the far northeast TN mountains will all see accumulating snowfall. How much is less certain than the mountains. At this point the forecast calls for 1-3" in the plateau and southwest Virginia, and mountains of Carter and Johnson counties in TN. In general this seems reasonable for now. Accumulating snowfall in the TN valley is certainly possible, north of the Knoxville metro area, but will be largely dependent on precipitation rates I believe. In other words, suspect there will be plenty of snow in the air, but unless there are bursts of heavier precip rates I`m not sure there will be much chance for it to stick during the day Monday. And as moisture thins out Monday night into Tuesday, more typical NW flow snow shower activity will limit how much QPF and thus the amount of snowfall, there is to be had in the valley.

@Blue Moon yeah, it looked to me like maybe even places like Abingdon, VA stayed snow for a while. I would also be interested to see how the system played out i n @BuCoVaWx 's area. Don't know that we've ever had any obs from this type of system from that area.

Ground is actually starting to whiten up a bit, already equal to the last system for me. Some of those flakes must have been gargantuan to have survived that melt layer that caused the sleet, and still be as big as they were. Mostly sleet for now.

There are some monster flakes mixed in with the sleet under this bright band Some of y'all to the NE, if you have deeper cold air, could be in for a treat.

Light snow and sleet now.

A few nickel sized flakes falling now! How long can it last, lol.

This bright band is about to move over my head. 37/25

I'm impressed with how the big frontal passage on the 4 - 5 has trended the past couple of days. Something with t-storm potential, to overrunning: