Holston_River_Rambler

Just an aside, but check out this N Hemisphere pattern we get on the GFS wrt MSLP at around hr 220:

Since we're throwing some obs. in here today, I had a little visitor for yard work this afternoon: Kind of eerie with the fog this AM:

@Carvers Gap

On a side note, the 12z Euro splits the SPV at 50 mb: GFS ain't having much of it: Still, it is under some stress at that level. The Euro even tries hard for a split at 10mb, but doesn't quite get there. The ever popular 3D vortex rendering gets some hits and wobbles at the lower levels, but looks stout overall:

I think I can see the circulation you're talking about in the post just above mine. I think it is possible that helps reinforce some ridging in the NAO area. Lots of concern with the Pac across the weather forums and rightly so, but that's a sneaky pattern you've pointed out. It will be interesting to see how it evolves.

GFS: CMC: Euro: And the extended control, just for good measure:

Merry Christmas y'all! Here's some ensemble gif presents GEFS: EPS GEPS: FWIW I think the reason the GEPS and GEFS have more of a SE ridge late in the run, is because they lose the -NAO. Hopefully that feature will prove more stubborn.

I think the big +SOI jump is more Ninaish, but that is partly due to a TC basically sitting on top of Darwin: It may fall back off after that TC moves off to the east.

Psu had a good post a day or two ago about the Pac and recent ENSO states. I screen shotted it because it was a nice reanalysis image. If you see this psu, thanks for making that reanalysis image.

I suppose, a way we could get some wintry weather with even this look:

GFS looks like it is cooking up a fantasy storm at day 10.

I will say not too many EPS members see a TC in that area, but some do. Prolly a low risk right now, but something to watch.

Don't look now, but the 6z GFS sees another one: That run has more of a recurve than last week's so maybe, if it forms and recurves, it can shake up the north Pac? Or maybe it reinforces the same old, same old.

Yeah, kind of wishing I had scheduled a LeConte hike today. Talk about a front loaded winter, lol.

I’m starting to think BAMs whole free social media presence is like a misdirection campaign to manipulate weather/ natgas energy weenies on Twitter and they save the good stuff for their highest $$$ paying clients.

Just saw that griteater had another post on twitter yesterday. He (I think he did this research anyway) shows years with MJO stalls like we're seeing now: For those without twitter, here is the pertinent image:

Is that some snow virga heading my way in a weak deformation zone? Dare I hope for a single flurry?

TBH I thought Jeff was kind of tongue-in-cheek joking when he said the convection was "reset[ting]" over the Maritime Continent area, but it really looks like it did just that as the typhoon was heading west. I always thought the MJO couldn't move backwards, but it looks like, at least in terms of whatever it does to modulate the the N Hemisphere's pattern, it did just that. I guess I just assumed that after the a stall with the typhoon, it would pick up where it left off in the western Pac. Maybe 3 steps forwards and two steps back is the dance it wants to run this winter. Still hugging the BOM this AM: But the Euro et al. ensembles ain't budging: The GEFS seems to have finally straightened out (sort of anyway) whatever kinks it had for the past couple of days: I guess there's a scenario in there somewhere where it doesn't get to phase 8 until the end of the first week of January and takes until mid February to reemerge in 4 or 5? But beware, the EPS shows the possibility for small TCs to sap it a bit once the convection gets back to the Western Pac: Maybe little ones like that won't do much damage to it, but I really don't know. Also, I suspect talking about possibilities with tropical critters post day 10 doesn't have a lot of certainty. It seems like the EPS sees a general area of lower pressures approaching 150w, but only at the end of its tun. Up top, the GFS has been showing some warming at 10hPa late in its recent runs: The Euro is showing similar warming, just over Greenland at 240 hours. No splits in the SPV, but maybe "unsettled" would be a good word, if i were writing a forecast discussion for Sandy Claus flying up in the strat. Nothing looks too different in the ensembles this AM, but someone else might have more to say.

I've already broken out the Christmas week beer, so here's a nice NAO GEFS gif trend, as of 18z, to get me back on the rails:

There aren't too many posts that actually make me lol. This was one.

Cold frosty morning up in MoCo today. Pic is on Lone Mt. looking towards Frozen Head Sate Park. The central peak is about 3200 ft.

Would be interesting if this could take on a more WSW to ENE trajectory, rather than the SSW to NNE of last year. I'll go ahead and weenie myself

Mr Kevin is a prophet:

Here ya go: GEFS, GEPS, and EPS: I have to admit the past 36 hours or so kind of spooked me a little bit and the end of the EPS at 12z ain't helping The control has my favorite flood pattern to boot: Fortunately all this is still out past 10 days and maybe the MJO has finally reset, and we won't get another TC, and it will finally make it past 7. I'm hugging the BOM for now: Not a bad convection flare up NE of New Guinea this PM:

On the bright side they could turn the slopes into extreme whitewater rafting experiences if the 6z GFS is right: Fortunately the EPS doesn't see it (except notably, to an extent, in the control) But I'm always nervous about the trough dropping over the 4 corners and aiming the jet at the OH Valley, so we get stuck in the right entrance region of jet streak after jet streak and get soaked. The creeks up here in Morgan county are already very happy after the past couple of days: I'd say they are about half again higher today (that pic was taken Friday AM). Our little typhoon friend that has been messing with the RMM plots is finally starting to weaken after bottoming out at 915mb yesterday. BOM looks good this AM, once again: The Euro just spins in in 7: GEFS is more hopeful: We finally have some actual convection over the Western Pac again, associated with the MJO wave: Hopefully it doesn't turn into another typhoon, lol. Strat still looks kind of stressed in the long term, but no major splits or warmings consistently modeled yet.