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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro was still a little bit south with the firehouse, so yeah somebody in the TN Valley watershed is going to get it. Hopefully nothing like the 14" amounts come to fruition anywhere.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the 0z EPS members really like the storm window y'all were talking about yesterday:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS seems to be trending a bit north with the worst rainfall this week. WPC seems to like that solution: Looks pretty much like the NBM, but hedging on the higher side. Seems reasonable to me. Will be interesting to see exactly where the firehose sets up.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    MJO convection, IMO, seems to be moving pretty well. It's taken it about a week and a half to move from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent. The TC aiming at Madagascar is a big reason why the RMMs want to keep it in the Indian Ocean at this point, I think. Below you can see how the Euro ensembles really want to jump it to the MC, but the IMO TC is forcing whatever equation Wheeler and Hendon came up with to spit out a medium amplitude phase 3. I think in ~ 10 days the MJO wave is going to be back in the western Pac or close to it. Questions though: 1. How far does it make it/ Will it be a strong push? 2. How many TCs get spun up and potential weaken any convection associated with it? 3. Does it even matter in March?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Quick thought: I wonder if there is a sort of funnel that is created by the extensions of the plateau, that helps focus lift, if the wind is NW/ NNW:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Antediluvian Flood Watch Podunk Weather Service Mossy Grove 757 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...The Podunk National Weather Service in Mossy Grove has issued an Antediluvian Flood watch for the following areas... TN Valley watersheds For the TN Valley watersheds ...including, but not limited to: Lancing, Nod, Deer Lodge, Frog Level, Carter's Valley, Oneida, Boring Chapel, Riverfront Seafood, Boozy Creek, Blackwater, Melungia, Knoxville, elevated river levels are forecast. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay tuned to further developments by checking TN Valley Banter often, look to your local augur, entrail reader, or even Raven Radio for further information. The next statement will be issued no later than 24 hours after the next bonkers GFS run. && TN065-182245- /O.NEW.KTYS.FL.Y.0027.220218T1037Z-220223T0018Z/ 757 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...ANTEDILUVIAN FLOOD watch IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THRU WEDNESDAY PM * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is shown on GFS runs * WHERE...TN Valley watershed * WHEN...From early this morning to Wednesday PM * IMPACTS...At 14.0 inches of rain the 0z GFS done went there. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Ark building prep is RECOMMENDED, but not MANDATORY at this time...
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have a dusting on sheltered and elevated surfaces.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can get some ice rafts going on the floods? I'll volunteer to buy the flamingo guy an orca floaty. 12z GFS
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    The means, the means for the CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles for the TN valley river systems are from 4.5 - 6.5 inches. I think flamingo man riding his floaty in front of the fellini Kroger was pretty much peak flood action in Knoxvegas in 2019. I think I was looking at the means that far out that year, so I'm going to go dredge up those posts and see how that looked. But lordy the 6z GFS gave me flashbacks with where the firehose was aimed. And it wasn't at fantasy range:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z GFS: 6z GFS 0z CMC (only to 240): 0z Euro (only to 240):
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z GFS has reached new levels of flooding:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    We'd be worrying not about ground temperatures, but about the snow sticking to the flood waters: All this precip is before the snow starts.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Might as well show the snow map, just in case the GFS is having one of it's moments of long range clarity:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I was just about to say that was kind of a weenie GFS run if I ever saw one.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 Happy times
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah if it happened in early March no one in this area would likely see the effects for at least 3 weeks, but I figured I'd throw it out there since it has been so strong this winter. But if it can promote some late March blocking in the AO and NAO areas, it might help keep any dynamic upper lows south of us.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS has ben showing some strat. warming at the pole pretty consistently at the end of its run, for the past few cycles. More than I've seen so far this year when I've paid attention to it. If it can hold for a few more days it might have some legs.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is it really a flood threat until janetjanet starts posting here? But yeah, the past several runs of the GFS have been showing someone getting 5"+ between the Ohio Valley and us. So far most of those runs favor the OH Valley. The EPS mean is up to around 3.5 - 4" across most of the state. I'd say 25% of the members get us over 5 - 6" and one member gives ye olden "get your waterwings and floating flamingos ready" amounts of 8 - 11 inches over eastern parts of TN. Hopefully the CFS is right and we get a break by early - mid March from this pattern that seems to be setting up. It seems to me to be like the pattern we've had, in the sense that the northern stream kept throwing energy at the Gulf, but it just never synced up with southern waves. So there were a bunch of chances for something big, but it never pulled it off. This new pattern looks like it will keep throwing energy at us in ways that would be conducive to flooding, but hopefully it doesn't sync everything up just right.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just woke up to get a glass of water and I have a dusting on elevated surfaces.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    So de we think much of this will hold together? Looks like High Knob is at least going to get a couple of inches tonight. HRRR tries to kill it off, but I don't think that will happen. Now it may not make it to teh ground, but I think the radar returns will hold together: Notice (Tri Cities folks) that there is also some weird 181 or 26 or whatever it is now band that shows up. It literally looks like it starts as some lift over the Eastman Bubble and then follows someone to JC. I'll be asleep, but will be interested to see if that verifies on radar overnight. maybe it is the ultra rare Bays Mountain point leeside low? JiC index may be in its COD, but it is still in the good phases 8/1 and we also we have the all important No One Cares Anymore (NOCA) index going for this to overperform tonight. Level of public and even weenie interest in any given event are like the SOI. We've dropped to -31.23 for this event.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet in Oneida/ Big South Fork area.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    TIMS extended range model is running:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is the time frame for the GFS's big Chatt system from the 12z Feb 5 run.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a model we invented (Thunder In the Mountains) based on the old saying that thunder in the mountains in winter means snow soon.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z NAM
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