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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh no....
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I put it in banter because I just couldn't face it at this point, lol. I'm hugging the CMC:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS 12z para
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Before anyone says anything, I'm not saying winter is over at this point. But I do think many of us could use a couple of weeks of warm weather to recharge our snow weenie batteries. And sunshine, don't forget the sun. Just don't look at the para GFS 15 day precip totals if you value your sanity, lol.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let's chase 70 for a few days! Will it prove as elusive as snowfall? Ensembles like our chances in the 8 - 12 day period. Euro Op for next Wed: But there's a TC near the Philippines that could foul things up (probably after next week, if it does anything), depending on how it interacts with the flow over the NH: You may also notice that there is a trough moving through East Asia, too: Have to see what jax thinks about that.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I changed to rain around 1:45 AM. Got up, looked out, nary a snow flake. We probably got 2.5" before the changeover, enough so that everything is still covered in snow right now.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Back to bed now. Gotta get my beauty rest if I want to wake up and see that rain before sun up.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Around an inch up here in Morgan County and rippin'.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heavy doodle dogs right now here in Morgan County:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    33/28. Nothing falling here yet.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    B+
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    34/28
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here comes the fire hose: Now, I know some of that is bright banding as snow is melting, but the main thrust of the precip. is aimed right at East TN. Which means the best lift is aimed here too. Obs. indicate rates are sometimes overcoming the warm nose in places.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest HRRR gives me the finger, in a good way: Note, I would never mouse over the highest accumulation spot in that purple finger and claim it was over me....
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    What was your high today up that way?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Tobiewx how farest ye?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    There are places near TRI that beat me by ten degrees this PM that are now colder than me by a few degrees.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Carter Fold is at least cooling off now, lol. Maces Springs was near 56 this afternoon, already back down to 40 now. HRRR for the win at TRI?
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course as soon as I type that I go check the 18z soundings and they still look good, just not as good, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is just going to come down to who gets right on that edge of the heaviest precip and can keep it snow the longest. It's a question of where the firehose sets up, and Nashville probably thinks it's more likely over Cumberland County. I really do think 3-5 and maybe more is right, for whoever gets under the firehose. It is going to absolutely rip. Every sounding I have looked at from every model shows great forcing into the DGZ, they just differ on 700mb - the surface temps.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX AFD is up. excerpt: "For this evening and tonight, strong jet structure will move across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Some models are so a 300mb jet of 165-170kts over the Ohio valley. Models show very strong upper divergence with the jet configuration between 04-09Z. The Ageostrophic Vertical Circulation with the jet will produce dynamic cooling as well as the wet bulb cooling due to initial dry airmass. A period of heavy snow (some sleet) is possible across the Plateau, western sections of the Tennessee valley, northeast Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. The strong warm air advection and isentropic lift will produce widespread precipitation. Eventually the warm air advection will win out with model soundings show precipitation transitioning to rain area-wide soon after daybreak."
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was about to say that, lol. Maybe we can time that last section of clearness for a quick few degree drop.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rates overcame!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like we get one more clear section and sun before sunset:
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