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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    His tweet was aimed more at the midwest, but I suspect some of that applies in the TN valley too.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm getting a little more interested in the second piece of energy (now at the end of the NAM run): It almost has that "traditional" clipper look to it: Upper/ mid Mississippi valley to TN valley. RGEM is less aggressive with precip. development: But, @John1122 I seem to remember you saying that models sometimes have a hard time with these systems. Honestly, I haven't been looking at models long enough to know how these things can play out. (seems like it's been since I was in highschool (late 90s) since we had one)
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    For you SREF freaks (yeah I'm talking to you!) who've always wanted to see that one member: ARW core: NBM core: The bottom larger images are the control for each run (right) and mean (left)
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie, RGEM, NAMs all show some squally type snow showers: The 6z NAM 3km almost has a squall line moving though east TN overnight Friday into Saturday. I will be interested to see if radar looks anything like this when it happens: I found one band with a 37 dbz return. Look at the forcing into the DGZ: Sorry Stovepipe, I couldn't resist:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got a new toy: GFS Snow growth panels for the weekend system. I decided to try true weather, since I think they used to have good Ukie precip panels (not as good as what I remembered), data is updated quickly, and they have a good interface. It has some other fun stuff too, just now starting to play around with.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ooohhh, just saw on southernwx that there is a parallel Euro and I have access to it (not many parameters though): Looks like it has a slightly colder solution than the current OP.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hey, speaking of snow showers, 6z Euro: I mean it isn't a whopper, but it is widespread.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah me too. Probably some really good lapse rates. On a more positive note, just evaluating my own response to the digital snows, I feel like this isn't the first time this season I've seen things look a little bleaker in the long range only to look better as things get closer in time.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the third of these SSW I've watched and I have to say, if this one doesn't do much, it will be the last one I care about. I've seen three now. the first one changed up the pattern, but it was too late in the year. The second one just reinforced a La Nina type pattern by enhancing Maritime Continent convection. This looked like it would be the big kahuna; percolating down to reinforce an -NAO, it also happened during prime climo. Now, I get it, lots of people have always said these SSW aren't much to care about. But I like to watch and figure things out on my own before I come to a conclusion, because you can't explain the hows and the whys of a decision, IMO, unless you have rolled it around in your own mind a few times. One way or the other, this will be the last one I need to watch. I've watched how Isotherm, griteater, Judah Cohen, Bastardi, Amy Butler, Simon Lee, Daniela Domeisen, as well as many people on this board, use and abuse these events and I think I have a feel for how they work, or at least enough of a feel for using them as a hobbyist. So, if this one doesn't do much for MBY, or really any of our back yards, I'm not sure they're worth looking at anymore. If we have this "grand conjunction" of a SSW and -NAO in prime climo during an el Nino, I might watch it again, but otherwise, this one has until early Feb to show something. I took a month during the "good" event in 2018 and I'll give this one that long. This is my first real -NAO as someone who posts on these boards, so that teleconnection has quite a bit more leeway, in terms of how I think it helps or hurts, but so far it seems kinda meh. Maybe the pattern would be worse without it, but even the MA and the normal CAD areas can't get a Miller B that warm noses east TN. I still stand by what I posted s couple of days ago, for now. And I agree with John, that you can't really care much about what the GFS says past a few days out. But, I despise seeing the "Flood in February" pattern start to show up. I'm over it. I think I'd rather have a severe pattern at this point than what the 0z ensembles are showing: QPF firehose signal starting to show up: GEFS CMC enselbles EPS:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM snowicane:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    F5. Not sure what it says about me, but I pay $15.00 per month during the winter for the UKMET precip, lol. https://www.f5wx.com/ I think it is geared more toward severe weather folks.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice slider on the euro too at a later time. Can’t post pics right now.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    To build on fountain's post, man the Ukie looked pretty in th digital snow dept:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I’m thinking we might get some more later on.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Mixing with snow again here. Probably rate driven.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    We've changed over to rain here. Kind of wondering if we can get the mythical change over back to snow after the sun sets, if there is still precip. Not sure I've ever seen it, but it is so marginal here, we could.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I suspect this may also be one of those rare times where we get help from an SWly upslope flow in the eastern valley, since all this is coming from that direction. Everyone except John... But he might even get some leeside convergence from the lee of the flow on the backside of the Frozen Head mts/ Cross mt. This event reminds me of a clipper from the olden days (not in terms of the set up or synoptics) but just in the "weather on the ground" (i.e. if I didn't know anything about the set up and just looked out the window)
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Eric Webb was saying on southernwx yesterday that models have a hard time with WAA precip shields on the northern fringe. Looks like he was right. RGEM was not so good this time. Maybe RGEM does better with dynamic systems (i.e. dynamic H5 vorts) and the NAMs do better with this WAA stuff?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    While certainly not true fatties, I think @Stovepipe that we can call these, with little doubt, healthy chonkers:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Light to moderate snow here now. Some banding showing up over Middle TN. Hopefully some of the precip over N. Alabama and the southern plateau can survive:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I did say it was a weenie run....
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh wait, never mind, lol
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I missed something @PowellVolz
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting pattern on the Ensembles in the long range: EPS: GEFS: GEPS: At first glance it doesn't look that great. Central Pac ridge and the main trough over the Pacific NW. But here are the things that make it interesting to me. 1) Always good to have something that doesn't look too great at day 10+. Guaranteed changes and that has seemed especially true this year. The danger in this one, is that there could end up being more SE ridge and that would herald the TN Valley's patented "Frikin' Floodin' February" 2) NAO is keeping that SE ridge at bay. This is a smoothed mean of a dynamically moving atmosphere and that block could verify stronger or in a diff location. Obviously the danger is that it verifies more east based, or links up with a SE ridge 3) The last time we had a positive result from a SSW, it took a month (mid Feb - March 2018). The UK got the fabled (and much canvased on wxtwitter) "Beast from the East" in a couple of weeks though and seeing the trougihng over the UK on the ensembles makes me wonder and, if Im honest, hope, that we still haven't seen all the fallout from the SSW (major or not) as it's effects percolate down through the atmosphere. Speaking of the strat, looks like the Euro and GFS want to reconsolidate it at 10mb in their long range, but lower down, all the residues of the SSW have to go somewhere and are still oozing down: GEFS Euro (EPS isn't available to me): MJO looks CODish, in real time. A little bit of convection in a lot of places n. of the equator, but schmaybe favoring the eastern Indian Ocean As Carver's has pointed out the RMM diagrams are looking better. The Euro, for example, wants to skip the warmer phases altogether and just run back to the western Pac. GEFS does have some members that want to do the warm tour, but others members just look lost: TL;DR. It will be interesting to see what all this evolves to come verification time.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dusting here this AM and light snow.
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