Holston_River_Rambler

RGEM sticking to its guns: 18z 12z Meanwhile the 18z NAM is in another world: MA folks seem to think that the NAM did take a step, prior to 48 hours, towards the rest of the models, so I'll hug that idea for now.

Heavy rain and gusty winds swinging through here right now. Almost like a tstorm line but no thunder

Yeah getting darker here too now. Almost thought I heard a rumble of thunder.

I just noticed in my MSLP gif brought Dandridge Dollop back. : aimed right at us. We need @Stovepipe's analysis.

And I $*&^ you not, when I click on the pink (presumably heavy snow area) for a sounding: This is what I get, lol :

For anyone who wants to see/ discuss, here is the EPS LPs and HPs for the next system: ands the Means 12z EPS MSLPs: 0z MSLPs

WAA fog rolling in here on the edge of the plateau:

Thunder getting closer. We've got to get that IMBY for snow later in the week, so says yoda dog

EPS through hr 90:

I think there's more wiggle room with this one. No clue how it turns out, but prefer to have the unknowns of those two N Stream vorts rushing in than the giant TPV gyre pulling everything N and W.

12z Euro: 0z Euro @Carvers Gap

T-storms showing up in N. Alabama, heading towards the western plateau,:

I'm really interested to see how the N stream shortwaves interact with this system. That TPV has blocked that kind of interaction off for our current system.

Evolution at H5; Several pieces of energy flying around, so time for more positive or negative changes.

Pivotal's version of events:

Snowfall through hr 90:

12z Euro has snow through I-40 across all of TN between 8PM and 2 AM Wed- Thurs.:

Looks like @AMZ8990 is about to get the right front quadrant of the 850 low, lol: next image is 850 winds and 850 frontogenesis

About half the 12z GEFS members have a front end thump for TYS - TRI, as well as the control.

I'd say so!

para GFS for the late week system:

Are you ok @AMZ8990: LOL

6z Euro has the thump:

One thing I really like about this Thursday- Friday system (besides the fact that the cursèd TPV is gone), is that we will be in the "Frickin' Floodin' February" Pattern from the past couople of years, but with actual, real, arctic cold, somewhere in the forum area. : Right entrance region of a jet streak, FTW. I picked the non-precip type image, just to show the intensity. Remember the firehose aimed at parts of the eastern TN valley the past couple of Febs? Imagine that, but with snow.

As you can tell, it's already happened to me.