Holston_River_Rambler

0z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR looks Euro/ RGEMish

Just out @McMinnWx

We've noticed that the Euro has a tendency to overamp storms in the mid range, right? What if it is overamping a big cyclone in the N. Hemisphere and that just has huge implications because what we are dealing with is a major TPV piece and any small changes in it's location can have big consequences: a 969 low S. of Greenland and a 959er in the Aleutians. GFS is totally different with those major storms: CMC looks more like the Euro, but still gets the cold eastward.: The one feature that really stands out to me is the low and associated energy west of the W coast: maybe that is exerting influence and pulling the bigger energy westward. To extend Carver's hurricane analogy, it's as if you have a cut off in the fall over TX or the Gulf, and it helps steer a hurricane more west? If that ends up incorrect though, it might be able to swing SE more. Yesterday's 12z Euro run had the feature much weaker:

I mentioned the parallel Euro earlier. The new version of the Euro that is supposed to be operational later this year: I'm sure it's not currently the OP for a reason, but I'll take that over cold rain or ice, any day...

Back in MoCo now. Here are the EPS members snowfall through hr 180. That may give some hint as to where to sees the boundary.

I'll be interested to see if there are any adjustments at 0z. If the Lillo info is right, the RAOB data do seem to have an effect on model output, though I suspect it gets less as 0 hour nears.

12z Euro out to hr 54. On a phone in Knoxville right now so this is all I have: https://imgur.com/a/UJv3cG5

Yeah for sure. Although I remember a few ice storms right on the Holston River in west Kingsport. I’m hugging the 0z para Euro right now (posted on the SE forum in the mid - long term disco)

People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em.

Gonna have to duck out soon for a run into Knoxville, but here is the precip at hour 39 - 42: no precip type panels available for RGEM on trueweather

Def digging a litte more over OK at hour at 18 - 21z Sat.

It might be digging just a hair more and I mean a hair's breadth, lol.

So far with the energy over the 4 corners, the RGEM looks very very similar to 6z.

And if it ends up digging a little more and as Carver's said, has more consolidated Gulf Low that moves to the SE coast, some eastern areas could get in on the 700mb FGEN boundary they're getting excited about in the SE and MA forums (people who live near Roanoke and Blacksburg)

Really pretty evolution on the NAM: Just a wee bit colder and that could be a memorable event, at least for me.

That's more than I've done, lol.

And I should add, unfortunately, east of BNA.

Twill be a fine NAMing for N of 40 areas, I believe!

Sounds like you know more than I do, so I'm happy to go with your analysis! I guess I'm getting so jaded about the whole thing that I default to "what could go wrong" mode, lol.

I wonder what implications, if any, that kicker digging more would have on the evolution of this system. Not saying that will happen, but if the Sillin info is an indication, that kicker might end up digging more based on the Pac set up and that might allow more room for this one to amplify.

6z Saturday at around 5PM vs 12z at the same time: Much more precip to the west in OK and Arkansas

Gonna be better than the 6z I think, but not sure by how much.

NAM's energy already looks better at 12z. (past 3 runs)