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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the winter panels. Kuchera ratios aren't available to me for the 6z Euro and 18z Euro. I suspect the accums below would be a bit (maybe not much though) higher with frigid 850s. Also keep in mind it is still snowing in NE sections past the end of the 6z Euro's run:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    We can do it the old fashiond way until we get winter panels: 3hr precip accum.: 850 temps: Looks like the 850 front hits the eastern plateau around Noon Christmas Eve and makes it to the mts by 6 PM. I would say it spreads a general .25 - .3 (maybe more in extreme NE areas) in that window. Keep in mind, if you are looking at these gifs, the precip one shows the past 3hrs of precip, so you have to look at the the temps at the later time stamp and guestimate a bit.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Energy looks RGEMish on the 6z Dr. Schmaybe Trying to pinch off a piece of energy at the bottom of the trough and go negative, ever so slightly: Digging the bottom of the trough deeper by a couple hundred miles, to my eye. Precip. map isn't out yet.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks to all for the awesome posts overnight! Special thank you to @Stovepipe. I laughed more at that picture than I have at anything on here since the @PowellVolz "Chicken in Doghouse" gif (patent pending).
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just so everyone is clear, I did not edit that, lol. Go to https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/, choose today's 18z GEFS there and drag the timer to hour 138. Zoom in from there.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lol, I just realized what the old GEFS was doing to us with that higher dollop around Dandridge.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Weird bump on the old version of the18z GEFS mean around Dandridge: You have to zoom into see it. New version of the 18z GEFS was more stingy, but did improve for a similar area over 12z. Toggled the two runs in a gif below. (More light blue = newer run)
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yup. I bet there will be a good NAMing though, before all is said and done, either way it falls out.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some relevant thoughts from the WPC's afternoon disco: "The presence of convection may favor a faster eastward progression of the cold front within the model spread...Besides the lake effect snow being likely in the cold cyclonic flow on the cold side of the system, sufficiently strong frontal wave development along a favorable path could also produce a band of meaningful cold sector snowfall from the central Appalachians to the interior Northeast following frontal passage. The scale of one or more such waves is small enough to keep confidence low for a while."
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the EPS still has a few members that form a leeside low along the front:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think any one solution is a done deal yet. Individual impulses in the amplified flow will have a say. Still not much consistency IMO.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Climo call for eastern TN areas: Moisture chasing cold. A slushy inch possible on grassy surfaces above 1500', higher accumulations possible above 3000 feet. Schmaybe mood flakes in valley locations below 1500'
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dr. Schmaybe lives up to the name: Looks more progressive a la the GFS.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    While we're waiting on Dr. Schmaybe, here is something for you strat junkies:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET was pretty ugly. But it has been bouncing around a lot with each run. That being said, it is not an unreasonable way the storm could play out. Low develops on the front and tracks right over east TN and a just in time change over for eastern KY.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm a pretty big fan of the Ukie and Euro's evolution of this week's system ay H5, (especially the Ukie's). Can we just go ahead and lock that in and not have a 200 mile NW jump last minute? Euro: Ukie:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is a a pretty big blob of convection in the 5 region, in the South China Sea (apparently that one is part of an Invest or Depression, or whatever they are called these days): Also a pretty decent chunk of it over the central Indian Ocean, but nothing to really write home about there: In terms of the OPs, it'll be interesting for me to watch if this big -ve NAO develops and retrogrades, as the wxtwittersphere is suggesting. I've never seen one like this one actually work out, so no clue how the OPs will look if that plays out.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    So I know some of you are more up on TN football news than I am, but am I understanding the news about the NCAA investigation correctly in thinking that we have cheated our way to 3-7??? If so, that takes skill. Could we at least be 5 - 5 and not have fake punts to get first downs on Vandy if we are bribing players to come here?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the EPS mean FWIW. Looks to me about as good as 12z yesterday and an improvement from the overnight EPS: The ever stingy snow mean:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think at this point, we're not just used to these systems failing, but that expectation has even settled into our bones. It's happened so much, I'm not sure this one would be any worse for me. Might as well have fun with it while we can!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like, if I'm reading Jax's data right (and I may not be) it would be between 2 AM and 8 AM Friday.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has more emphasis on the energy I circled in my post this AM: Good Euro run I would say, for eastern areas.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Result in accums, for those interested:
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