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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It has that wicked Miller B look to the setup. No bueno for me, but hopefully better for y'all up that way.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm starting to become even more bearish than Jeff for the plateau, for the Monday deal: Even though it is coming through overnight, and even though as Carver's mentions its a great low track, it's a rainer. Hopefully the energy can get a tad more wound up and pull a wee bit more cold in. Otherwise, it might just end up being a 3000 ft + event.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap In terms of the strat, there is definitely a solid attack at it's base (look at the top of Greenland, it almost totally breaks at the bottom there) : there's just not a lot going on above that. Most models show (still this AM) it getting split at 50 mb, and the main lobe dropping in over Hudson's Bay and then trying to reconsolidate, at that pressure level. At the top though, it stays pretty stout throughout, even if it is pushed around a bit. Here's the overnight Euro OP at 10 mb:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM looks tasty at it's end: If it can dig a little more and separate from that N. Stream, piece it is in sync with, it would help. Otherwise it might get squished. I think if we can get a healthy vort rolling along I - 20, it may surprise with it's precip shield. But look at how differently the energy is still being handled: 6z GFS, southern stream looks similar, but a totally different depiction of the N. energy from the RGEM: 0z Euro looks more like the RGEM: and the 6z NAM just looks like as mess: Agree with y'all overnight and I think everything from the high end of Tellico's call above, to Blunderstorm's weak slider are still on the table this AM and the 0z EPS city charts show that for most areas in our forum.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    The aurora could be visible at some of our latitudes according to this site: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast You have to set it to Dec. 10 though and choose North America as the region to see the visibility line at the I 40 latitude.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've seen fantasy Greenland blocks before, but don't think I've ever abv. normal heights over Greenland one for almost an entire run.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is our disturbance, about to swing ashore in BC. Looks healthy. We'll see if the Rockies are kind to it:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z RGEM looks more 0z Euroish now: Yeah it's a meso model at the end of its run, but hey, it's happy hour.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I kinda feel like, anemic as happy hour GFS OP was, that was the best look it has had so far: (Using COD for maximal snowage)
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looks like a compromise favoring the GFS. Still some precip, but the energy is not nearly as wound up.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sometimes @Carvers Gap, regarding the model changes over the past week, I really do wonder how much it has to do with how they initialize tropical convection: Last week over the MC: This AM: a lot of the MC convection. is south of the equator. although there is more over the Indian Ocean
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild @TellicoWx Even most GEFS members don't have much, though some have the wave. I can't tell if the new GEFS is more favorable than the old one (still available on COD: 6z Old GEFS: New GEFS:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really like the conversational tone of the writer who does BNA's AFD (Not a jab at other AFDs, I like em all) " I think what will be of more interest to everyone is what`s on the backside of Saturday`s system. As of right now, the white stuff is a possibility Sunday night in both of our major models. However, the euro is drastically different in evolution compared to the GFS. In fact, if the euro verifies, portions of Middle TN could see plenty of the white stuff. No, no, no. I`m not biting yet. The last several euro runs have been much different from one another and without a better sense of consistency, I`m just going to keep a chance PoP in for Sunday night`s potential wintry stuff. We`re cool and dry to start off next week, so for now, this weekend system will be the only one to deal with over the next 7 days."
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think every model, except the GFS and GFS parallel, has some sort of wave riding the front laid down after this weekend's storm (even if they are no where near as amped as the Euro). Even the NAVGEM (God love it's little soul) Isn't there some ancient lore about if the (supposedly) progressive NAVGEM has a storm...
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh Lawd, I forgot Knoxville: The control looked a little more like yesterday's run, so that's why some of the eastern areas miss out on that member.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, I thought for sure that was an oddball Euro run yesterday, lol. Some EPS support though (no particular order and including the 0z Mean; sorry for the speed, but giphy limited me to 1.2 seconds per frame because of the image #):
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    NW trend FTW:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not a bad signal for a trailing wave on the EPS, though not nearly as slap happy as the OP; Some of the 12z GEFS members are like the Ukie:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET had a less wound up piece of energy, but still a wave riding a front:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add one more thing since I've had half a cup of caffeine now. I am going to be very happy to see the cut off under the PNA ridge get out of there and clean up the flow. It was fun, but it's over. We made memories; we laughed and cried, but time to move on.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Being playful and optimistic (no caffeine yet so I have to try harder, lol) one could look at the GEFS control's vision for tropical convection going into January: One could also look at Raul Roundy's regressions: Roundy had a fun exchange yesterday on twitter about Greenland blocking coming back in early January. FRD told PSU on the MA forum about it and , strangely (at least to me) he was about as surly as Jeff after a Chiefs loss about it. Canada looked cold on 18z GFS yesterday too: some nice -40s and even a few -50s
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry @Carvers Gap weathermodels doesn't have it. I can get it on Tropical Tidbits, but it is usually a day or two behind the most recent runs there. I thought Sunday's looked pretty good, but Monday's 0z went back to blah. I'm guessing Tuesday 0z was nice? Here is Sunday's: If for nothing else, worth making one to see how it verifies, now that we have it running out to 800 hours.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is a taboo subject. It's like seeing a storm shift NW last 24 hours when people expect it to dump on Asheville. If you talk about it, you jinx it. I don't wish that industrial sized curse upon Kingsport.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Decided try a NW Plateau obs loop today to see if I could see any upslope. The NAMs looked pretty generous: But there wasn't much besides some pretty winter skies. There was some snow on the Pogue Creek Canyon area, but the flakes were sooooo small, it was almost as though they were just frozen drizzle, coated with a dusting of rime: If you squint you can almost see it snowing: Overlook at the Big South Fork: Upper Obed:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will say the overnight OP CMC and Euro look interesting towards the end of their runs, but it is in that seemingly-always-present, but-seemingly-never-quite-realized, 8 - 10 day period. Both show a wave trying to ride a front after it passes through. CMC on Dec 14 and Euro on Dec 17.
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