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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wouldn't be unhappy with that, if indeed this image is what works out: The Roundy model may score another coup: That is a whale of an EPO ridge and anything that can get some cold into Canada is a win at this point.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    My bar has been pretty low for this upcoming system, so I would not be unhappy with the RGEM's depiction: My big problem with this one has been that it is a fast moving, open wave and, as other have said, marginal events have typically verified, at least for MBY, a little on the low side. Dan'll probably clean up with it though, lol! If I'm looking at the RGEM correctly, there is an inverted trough idea showing up as well. If I had to pick a corridor to bust high on this one, it would be Grayson Highlands to High Knob and Wise, VA. The NAM was giving some warning signs of the boundary layer at this range for the last one, that lower elevations would have trouble changing over, unless the rates were high. There's some of that initially, but maybe not as much on their depictions this time, but for whatever reason, the NAMs and the RGEM really like the feature I've circled in red: I don't know if that is an inverted trough, or some other synoptic feature, but it is more prominent across the models this time. In fact, the only Hi res model that doesn't have it is the 6z HRRR, but that is waaayyyy out there for the HRRR, so subject to significant change. 6z Euro kinda has it too, but has more issues with the boundary layer, probably a valid concern given that tempos are in the mid 50s over much of the valley at this time, with a lot of SW flow still behind this last system and that we're waiting on the upper disturbance to swing through Wed night and pull the cold air in.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    55 up here on the plateau and drippy. A breath of spring in the air.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like an improvement over 6z for some areas, but not by much if you just go by the snow maps: 6z: 12z:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Does the thunder rule count if you see it on GOES derived imagery? The convection associated with those strikes across Cumberland county passed just over my area. First time it has gotten that dark with a shower since summer, but no thunder or lightning IMBY.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Surely we can squeeze out a rumble or flash from this? I mean that literally. Atmosphere IMBY seems like it has been hibernating lately. I think I can, I think I can...
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is all snow for the Thursday system some parts of SW VA and elevations above...I'd say...4000 feet.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the Ukie in all its blue pixelated glory for some areas:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think a system between the Feb 4 and 7 ends up being Jax's squall line and we finally get to apply the thunder in the mts rule. 6z GFS suggests that a flex of the -NAO could keep those suppressed, but the Euro Control still amplifies them. Still looks like a big anticyclone gets broken off in the N. Pac and rolls back towards Siberia, dislodging some cold. 6z GFS offers a glimpse at how that could turn out.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie looked ok for NE sections. Best pic I have right now:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro Control 500 mb was interesting. Yeah, yeah, I know waaayyy out in time, but it has some OP support and for all intents and purposes, 10 - 15 days seems about as certain as days 4 - 5 sometimes, so why not? That EPO/WPO or whateves (circled thingy at the start of the gif) it is, is a big feature and could def. help drive some of that Siberian cold down into N. America. Notice how at its end (a lot more uncertain than there just being a bid ridge in the N. Pac), it helps create a flow at 500 mb from Siberia into W Canada. Fun little disturbance (circled at the end) added free of charge. 6z GEFS (12z hadn't populated yet on weatherwodels) as an example of a similar evolution: All that's waayyy out there and likely to change, but such a big anticyclone (shown below in an anomaly map) is likely to have implications for how energy shifts and flies around, downstream. I think if such an anticyclone develops and rolls over the pole, it is a big storm signal, somewhere, maybe not in the TN Valley (lol). But, if we hypothetically take what the models are showing here, it would inject more cold into the pattern and, at least temporarily force some energy south. First storm cuts (at least as far as it can with the -NAO), maybe around Feb 4 - 5 and then a few days later would be a better shot for the TN Valley, MA and or OH Valley. And yeah, again I know it's a bunch of ifs ands AND buts.... But if I could accurately predict the future I'd use my powers to get UTK a good head football coach, fuhgetabout the lottery, lol! Weather wouldn't be any fun if we knew the outcome.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heading up to Kingsport tomorrow, but kind of wish I was going up there today!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEPS still looks good this AM: EPS not too shabby either (I'm personally a fan of the blue colors near Yucatán, not for any meaningful reason, other than I always want to see a low form around the Bay of Campeche). and maybe we can live in the land of make-believe for a minute and hope it's picking up on a shortwave, dropping down across the plains to meet that energy: GEFS isn't too far off from either, but sees less ridging along and off the west coast.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was about to ask how it was looking up that way.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    To be fair: We gonna upgrade to "Moderate Grump" and issue a product to boost morale: ...GRUMPY POSTER WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL FEB !4 * WHAT...Grump expected. Total grump accumulations of 1 to 3 grumps, with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...,TN Valley locations * WHEN...From NOW until FEB 14 * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery models and flooding potential on the ensembles * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Grump will be heaviest during the 6z runs through SREFs at 1445 UTC. Grump may melt and refreeze on happy hour runs, which may cause sad/ happy spots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while looking past 7 - 10 days on models, especially the KMA and ICON. The latest model conditions for the region please see Tropical Tidbits snow maps (10:1 only)
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro for NE sections:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO If we can just keep the flooding away at this point, it's a win.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mentioned this in banter earlier, but looks like we're going to ride in the SSW rodeo again: If the GFS is correct in its depiction of the MJO RMM plots/ convection/ whatever is going on, that would line up with a warming triggered over Siberia. Another High descending, another mountain torque, another jet extension, this time with a more La Ninaish N Hemisphere state (of course with a -NAO too): Of course that is medium to long range, so it could change. Like Carver's said though, I am a more of a fan of how the EPS control bumps a ridge over the west coast as the Gulf of Alaska low rolls backwards over the Bering Sea
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro stalls in 7, in its RMM depiction:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Webb's saying that the RMMs are showing something other than a true MJO wave: Now, is that good for us? I have no idea. I'm still not sure what the differences are between Equatorial Rossby Waves (ERs) (maybe that thingy I noted early this AM south of Baja?? which seems to have already dissipated), the "Low", or a Kelvin Wave, and the MJO. The MC region has a flare up again N. of the equator, though:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure. Jet looks not so hot for severe, if that look were to pan out: Long range is starting to show reinforcement to the -NAO with another half #%$^% split and warming in the strat, so I'd be willing to bet, at least through mid Feb. it might be hard to get anything to amplify, unless that NAO relaxes a bit for a time.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro for NE sections:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, what even is that convection south of Baja? It's the healthiest blob of convection near the tropics in the N Hemisphere right now: Some of that in the MC, N of the equator is close, but even compared to yesterday the MC looks comparatively quiet. Indian Ocean looks dead, at least N of the equator.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Ensembles cause heh, it's been a while: EPS GEFS: GEPS Some of the individual storms on the OP GFS kind of remind me of the year Boston got like a trillion inches of snow, whichever year that was. Now, I 100% admit I don't entirely remember what that pattern was, but there were some late bloomers off of the NE coast on the 6z GFS. I was about to look at the tropics again, but saw this on satellite: Just gonna throw out there that whatever that is south of Baja, is probably not good for those, like me, who don't want a ton of rain next week. Now, if you want more rain, that looks promising. Hopefully the NAO can shear it out or help keep it suppressed.
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