Holston_River_Rambler

This event now in the 18z Euro's timeframe:

Nice slug of moisture, let's hope it gets here. Healthy looking system too:

I'll go for it since i started this one.

I dropped my temp by a couple of degrees.

Kind of wished I had driven up to Wartburg to look at Frozen Head. I bet you are right and I would have seen some snow at the very tops.

The wind really did pick up as that band came through, but no precip.

Wait for it. Virga, heavy at times!!!!

About to get this: probably too dry at the lower levels though

Pretty long disco by MRX this PM, out now, prefaced by: " I`ll start this discussion off with the disclaimer that even though snowfall is only about 12-24 hours away, there is still low confidence in this forecast due to the WIDE range of model solutions. There are several things to take into consideration with this forecast, and anyone of them could cause the forecast to bust."

And last but not least, there's some kind of little boundary moving towards me on the plateau: Will be interested to see what it looks like when it moves through

Some mixed precip starting to make it as low as 1400 feet in N MS:

Latest NAM takes that area of precip over MS right up the eastern valley: Still snowing nicely over NE TN as of this frame:

MPing has a snow report near Huntsville:

Cool little meso feature in N Central MS, headed towards Starkville: Man, I hope that whole slug of precip. holds together and runs right up the eastern valley (and the plateau of course,lol)

Starting to see a pivot axis on radar: If that is right and if it continues to move that way (big ifs, not sure if I'm reading it right), a lot of E TN should be ok, provided we get the precip. to fall and fall as snow.

You can already see some evaporartive cooling on Signal Mountain:

12z RGEM came back NW too:

It's a maniculum!!! They were often used by manuscript and early printed books readers as finding aides (similar to how we might use a highlighter): We've been warned, but not sure of what!

Maybe the 3km is seeing some convection that cuts off moisture supply?

That's 18z yesterday @tnweathernut It looked waaayyy too good for my area, so I had to do a double take, lol.

Actually you're right. It drops 9 on TYS. Def a jump up for the TYS to TRI crew

Speaking of the HRRR, 12z kinda had it over Unicoi county: Looks like it jumped back a bit to the NW from 6z

I'll also add that I think the topography of the eastern valley could help that, as long as it ends up developing somewhere in the valley: Imagine getting a little bit of dynamics helped by anticyclonic flow, running up the valley

There's a "pivot zone" that has been showing up on models. Some put it over NE TN (Euro, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW to an extent), some put it over the central plateau (GFS para), some put it over the Knox - Hamblen area (NAM 12km, WRF-ARW2 to an extent), some have it over NW NC (RAP). I don't know exactly how to describe it, but where ever that occurs, that's the area that gets hit the hardest. Using the Euro to show this, just because it was easier to make and mark up gifs with it: Here is the 500mb circulation, notice a lil lobe of vorticity kinda sort schamybe does the fujiwara dance with the main lobe: That might be helping pull some dynamics up the eastern valley to intersect with deepish moisture: Even at 850mb there is a little bit of vorticity that wobbles on the run over the eastern valley: So you get this: 850 flow turns Northerly too, so Johnson City/ Elizabethton, Erwin...and... dare I say it...Flag Pond would probably keep snowing with upslope.

6z Euro: How it gets there: