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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    40 here and some very wet snow mixing in. I'm actually pretty surprised we've even got that.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Web cams show snow between Mt Juliet and Lebanon. Hopefully that and the cooler temps keep cruising down I-40. Cookeville looks like it is still virga, same up here in MoCo.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on tnweathernut's ob. I susupect some of that bright banding around Nashvegas is wet snow. Actually, Radarscope says yes: Time to check out some webcams
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Down to 46.9 now, (that counts as 46, right?) from near 60. Ten more degrees is apparently all I need. 43, twenty-five minutes up the road near the Obed. Looks like most locations around Crossville are near 40.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good to hear that the atmosphere is overcoming the boundary layer issues!
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wind's cranking up here now, WNW 15 mph with gusts to 20. Some of the plateau weather stations in Cumberland County are dropping pretty quick and some places like Pickett and Fentress never warmed as much. Think it is too much to overcome for MBY, but I guess we'll see. My general area has dropped 6 - 10 degrees in the past couple of hours.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    925 mb surface analysis looks ok: N or NW flow across most of TN, even eastern valley areas.. But 850 mb looks a wee bit worse: WSW or SW flow. I still think areas around TRI (especially Bristol to Abingdon and NE on 81 and even Johnson County and Elizabethton and maybe even Unicoi) will do ok, but not sure I can see much for SW of Fall Branch. Hopefully I'm wrong, I would love even a dusting or mood flakes.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Almost 60 at my nearest weather station. It’s in the shade at 1300 feet. Clouds moving in just in time to lock it in.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    And if the sun actually comes out and we get even a couple of hours of daytime heating.... that is def. not good. there is some clearing in West TN
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    The HRRR thinks the temps are going to nose up into the low to mid 50s in the central and even northern, Eastern Valley. If it's right about that, then we will have a problem. I just can't see enough cold catching up to the moisture as it swings through in the evening after peak heating is insulated by the clouds. I'm not happy about it, but it is what it is, if the HRRR is right. 3km NAM keeps a little more cold over SW VA. I think we'll probably have a better sense of what happens by 2 PM. Most models have the 850 low moving across the souther plateau or rounding the base of the Apps by then and we should be able to see what damage any SW flow/ insolation (even with clouds) has done. I'm interested in the potential for an anafront/ wave riding a front in the Feb 6-8 time frame. Most models are showing some potential for that after the big front swings through on the 4/5th. Ensembles still seem to think NA will finally get some of that nice cold Siberian air to work with....eventually. Whenever that happens, I think is our best board wide chance. We've had sooooo many marginal, wishy washy events, if we could just get some decent arctic air injected into or building in North America, it would help so much. Looks like some version of the NAO is going to hang around, but without arctic air to work with, it seems like we end up with gray, cool, and damp weather and days like yesterday seem miraculously warm. So hopefully we get some arctic air for that NAO to block, instead of just a storm track.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    And, if there be no good 0z NAMing, blame the 21z ARW cores: They seem to have decided that SWVA needed a whomping
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Big jump on some of the SREF members, I suspect a good NAMing incoming for somebody.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPS mean got a lil boost from 12z. 12z Mean: 18z mean:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope it isn't right, lol: Bizzaro world that WCYB would use that. I've only seen Ventrice tweet it occasionally. I thought most local news outlets used some version of the RAP for short range forecast graphics, also occasionally using the NAM.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro seems like yet another small tick in the right direction for TRI, especially Bristol and JC:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Greyhound some hopeful person went in to his Wikipedia page and edited it, lol (not me). I was just reading some of the more excitable twutters on VOL twitter claim that there was a plane from State College meeting one from UT and decided to see if someone had edited it. Yup. It's back to normal now though.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro seemed like it was another tick in the right direction for tomorrow night, for the areas it was already favoring. MRX seems rather bullish (don't know that there's too high a ceiling) on this one, at least for some areas.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Masiello's done:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wikipedia says James Franklin is the UTK coach lol
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    And, I'll add, that is not a "Frickin' Floodin' February" (TM) look either. (Although lose the NAO blocking and it could get that way, quick).
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wouldn't be unhappy with that, if indeed this image is what works out: The Roundy model may score another coup: That is a whale of an EPO ridge and anything that can get some cold into Canada is a win at this point.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    My bar has been pretty low for this upcoming system, so I would not be unhappy with the RGEM's depiction: My big problem with this one has been that it is a fast moving, open wave and, as other have said, marginal events have typically verified, at least for MBY, a little on the low side. Dan'll probably clean up with it though, lol! If I'm looking at the RGEM correctly, there is an inverted trough idea showing up as well. If I had to pick a corridor to bust high on this one, it would be Grayson Highlands to High Knob and Wise, VA. The NAM was giving some warning signs of the boundary layer at this range for the last one, that lower elevations would have trouble changing over, unless the rates were high. There's some of that initially, but maybe not as much on their depictions this time, but for whatever reason, the NAMs and the RGEM really like the feature I've circled in red: I don't know if that is an inverted trough, or some other synoptic feature, but it is more prominent across the models this time. In fact, the only Hi res model that doesn't have it is the 6z HRRR, but that is waaayyyy out there for the HRRR, so subject to significant change. 6z Euro kinda has it too, but has more issues with the boundary layer, probably a valid concern given that tempos are in the mid 50s over much of the valley at this time, with a lot of SW flow still behind this last system and that we're waiting on the upper disturbance to swing through Wed night and pull the cold air in.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    55 up here on the plateau and drippy. A breath of spring in the air.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like an improvement over 6z for some areas, but not by much if you just go by the snow maps: 6z: 12z:
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