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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. If I'm whipping out Roundy's 45 day plots, we gotta take what we can get, lol. The Euro says it's happening for NE sections:
  2. Roundy's experimental projections haven't done too poorly this year: If that pans out, it looks like we eventually settle back in to a much colder pattern with an EPO ridge and an eastern trough by mid - late Feb.
  3. Some of the convection in the Maritime continent is starting to percolate eastward, closer to 150 than 120 east: Maybe the models will start to look up even more soon, if it cam make it between 150 and 180 Either way, it looks like it has weakened some. Here's where we were at a few weeks ago (not necessarily weaker, just further west):
  4. Alright ye NAO folks, here we go: let's see what it can do.....
  5. Nice flow from Mongolia into Canada on the Euro OP long range:
  6. Caught a lightning strike with the next wave moving into NE sections. Energy is currently over S. IL: Here's a zoomed out version in WV imagery:
  7. WRT the MJO. I decided to look at the convection since its been a week or so and this is def. not a good place for it. If that is a coherent wave and that is where it is now though, it could evolve to the east, which would put it in a more favorable region, baring any interference by TCs or other nasties.
  8. 12z Euro still has the storm others were discussing above, but the thermals are a bit warmer at 12z:
  9. Yet again Masiello has said just enough for me to think I know what he means, but not quite sure, lol... The replies he has to "Vital Sine" below that are the part I'm talking about. The idea of a SSW event cooling the tropopause at the tropics has been discussed before. If he's right (and I'm reading this correctly) it seems like he expects a coherent MJO signal to move into more favorable areas in the Western Pac.
  10. Looks like I'm getting into these bands now: Hopefully more of y'all east of me can get in on it too.
  11. Approaching fatties gettin' ripped up here, but not quite there.
  12. Hecking Chonkers falling up here, getting nickled and dimed (hopefully heading toward the Ridge of Oaks):
  13. Hopefully one of us on the plateau or E TN can luck out and get under one of the bands about to swing through:
  14. Mossy Grove: One picture though, reminded me of something. This one is aimed right at the heart of the Frozen Head mts, towards John:
  15. MRX for SW VA: Another interesting thing to watch for this afteroon will be the slight chance for thunder snow; this is only for our southwest VA counties though. The SPC has this area under general thunder during the afternoon due to the steep low-to mid-level lapse rates and 100 J/kg SBCAPE that will be in place. This may allow for enough updraft buoyancy to generate a lighting discharge. Though the chances are slim it isn`t out of the question.
  16. I saw a 56dbz return at one point NE of a Nashville. Not sure if there was some ground clutter involved in it.
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