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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think they’ve just lucked out wrt cloud cover today.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    It ain't too far from the truth, lol. I thought I took a pic of that a few weeks ago in Kingsport, but I didn't, so I had to improvise.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    They firing up that torch on Jared drive? For those of you who don't know, Kingsport has a giant propane heater they fire up if snow is threatening. Quite effective.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Monterey is at 30, so that makes me feel a little better about my 28, lol
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Selfishly pulling for teh para GFS with all I got, lol: Clouds have moved back in here. We jumped up to 28, lol after 17 at day break. DP c. 21 in my area.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Come on clouds, you can do it:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z NAM still ticking south (if just barely) past 5 runs:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going to start trying to do some timelapses, now that I have a tripod. experiment one, hoping to catch some of the red clouds this AM:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro jumped west a bit:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking carefully at that, I could see a few ways that pixeled area could be taken. Perhaps I have angered a MRX met.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was my "hedgin my bets" post, here is my "embrace the snow weenie" post: 6z para GFS keeps even Knox and Loudon counties all snow.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I'm not super enthused about is that it looks like the trough is starting too tilt a wee bit earlier than I would like. You can see the orientation of the lift go from ENE to NE between 11PM and 6AM I looks to me like that might promote a little more sunshine in eastern valley areas than we would like. Not saying its a deal breaker, but I don't think it's ideal either. It could be I'm a little jumpy too, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly not sure, but that could be something that is happening.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z Euro's evolution: Is it starting to sniff out some end game action from the left over energy with the trough?
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Might be a NAMing incoming. Big jump on the SREF ARW members east between 15z and 21z 21z: 15z: SREF NMB members look pretty similar to me to 15z, (which was closer to the above, 21z ARW)
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it looked a little SE to me, but it's been so close the past 4 runs I couldn't tell for sure.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro still has it:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Already below my low of 19, at 18. If I'm counting rain drops tomorrow, it won't be through lack of the HPs effort. Arctic air still squeezing out moisture even as the sky clears. This video is looking SE and the sky has already cleared across the valley: I don't know that I can remember a situation like this. Arctic air sweeping in, moisture coming back tomorrow. Skies are clearing and we should get some hours of radiational cooling before the high clouds move back in.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow, it's close to being all snow just north of me on the plateau. Maybe even for me.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    AFD is up from MRX
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I feel like it has done well in modeling the boundary layer issues I've had with storms here vs other modeling. That said, I can't remember how far the lead time was for it nailing those,. It's still pretty far out in HRRR land right now.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    One more jump or two and the NAM will look a lot like everything else.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM 3km has been a little steadier, but IMO it also made a jump south at 18z :
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    850 wind trend past 6 runs too: There' certainly still rug pull potential for sure, but that trend, if not our friend, is at least friendlier.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z NAM is still the warmest model and most aggressive with the warm nose, but let's also consider the trend it has over the past 6 runs:
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