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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    And anybody that uses the SREF plumes for anything other than a curious interest in the NAM or just out of pure weather weenie snow lust, is not too bright. I know I post them sometimes, but I try to be judicious about how I do it. I hope I haven't given anyone the idea that I take them seriously. If so, apologies.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know if I would jump either, just based on climo as well as a common sense and level-headed evaluation of the bust potential, but I don't think the RGEM is a joke.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The rum's worn off now @kvskelton, no more Latin until this evening, lol. 6z Euro: 3 hr snowfall: totals 10:1 (no Kuchera ratios available to me for the 6/18z runs):
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I was curious how the sharper SREF trough would end up on the NAM. Pulls it right up the windward side of the Apps and cranks it back over eastern OH: Let's hypothesize for the moment, that this is pivot point on these runs. If this is the furthest west the NAM goes, is there a scenario where the MSLP tracks like this, and we split the difference between the east and west solutions: And, to be fair, the rum has had it's effect at this point and this could just be a cast
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    O Fortuna, velut Luna statu variablilis semper crescis aut decrescis nive detestabilis SREF nunc obdurat et tunc curat ludet mentis aciem
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2020122121&id=SREF_500MB-HGHT_VORT__
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    PBP is the way. 21z SREF is, so far, sharper with the trough, if not deeper (15z vs 21z). Sharpest depiction of the trough yet:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z winter panels:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro FWIW. Not much difference between it and 12z, as far as I can tell at this resolution: Winter panels will probably need another 30 minutes before they're out
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    We’ll see if it happens or not, but based on the SREF H 5 panels, I suspect the NAMs will shift a bit west again.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry somewhere I can’t access the Ukie right now. Will try in a bit. Pivotal may have it tho.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was happy with it! Lol!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think you are in the right place. @BlunderStorm is up your way. I’m stoked to have another poster from that area!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think you're kind of in the same boat as the rest of us, but with worse climo forcing the possibilities the wrong way. Not out of the game, but places N and NW have a better shot.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if there is a scenario where the trough could dig so much, that it could shift the precip axis from being N - S to more SSE - NNW? One thing I have consistently noticed in MRX's AFDs, is that they are very impressed with the forcing dynamics.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    FYI I will be driving a bit today and may not be able to post the Ukie or Euro.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like I missed the thread naming fun while I was on my bike, lol!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 3km NAM looks a little more reasonable with snow amounts, but actually tries it's darndest to pop a low in SE Alabama and run up towards Atlanta and Asheville and then Mountain City.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I lived in that eastern tip of KY where it meets VA and WV, I'd be feeling pretty good right now.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly surprised it didn't look a lot better for some areas: NAM sees Kuchera rations ~15:1 for some of that
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I reckon there's a good NAMing incoming, prepare your bodies, lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The NAM has def. been trending slower and deeper with the energy and that trend is reflected in it's precip presentation. 5 run trend centered on 11 AM Thursday.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    BIGLY DISCLAIMER.... I am about to post a supreme gif. It is the SREF's MAX 3 hour snowfall. That means this map shows what the highest members of the already notoriously overdone SREF think could possibly be the max amount of snow to fall in a given 3 hour period. It should not be taken as having a hope in hell of verifying. So why post it? I I noticed something odd about the 3z run when I was looking through its winter panels. If I understand the SREF, it is sort of an ensemble for the NAM suite. So, with that in mind: Notice the normal front sweeps through at first, with a chance of rain changing to snow. Ok, yeah, you say, we get that. What I found interesting in this graphic was that apparently some of the SREF members have the secondary low popping waaayyyyy south and snowing in MS and AL. Not really looking at its overblown snow amounts, that it has precip so far south, at least to me, indicates that there is some room for such a scenario. Is it likely, no, absolutely not. But, to paraphrase an AFD I read a few weeks ago, there is a non zero chance, lol. The past two runs of the SREF have seen something that makes them think that is a possibility. I looked at the plumes and it looks like it is only the ARP that is seeing this possibility. There's still some spread in how the NAM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and WRF-ARW2 how the bottom of the trough as it swings through TX. So could be a big nothing burger, or something to watch.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the winter precip. panels, hot off the press:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it pops a low right over Johnson City: Trying to make a trend gif, but weathermodels is too unwieldy for me to do that. There has definitely been a west and more separation between the N low and this low, in terms of MSLP, over the past 5 runs.
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