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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some relevant thoughts from the WPC's afternoon disco: "The presence of convection may favor a faster eastward progression of the cold front within the model spread...Besides the lake effect snow being likely in the cold cyclonic flow on the cold side of the system, sufficiently strong frontal wave development along a favorable path could also produce a band of meaningful cold sector snowfall from the central Appalachians to the interior Northeast following frontal passage. The scale of one or more such waves is small enough to keep confidence low for a while."
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the EPS still has a few members that form a leeside low along the front:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think any one solution is a done deal yet. Individual impulses in the amplified flow will have a say. Still not much consistency IMO.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Climo call for eastern TN areas: Moisture chasing cold. A slushy inch possible on grassy surfaces above 1500', higher accumulations possible above 3000 feet. Schmaybe mood flakes in valley locations below 1500'
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dr. Schmaybe lives up to the name: Looks more progressive a la the GFS.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    While we're waiting on Dr. Schmaybe, here is something for you strat junkies:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET was pretty ugly. But it has been bouncing around a lot with each run. That being said, it is not an unreasonable way the storm could play out. Low develops on the front and tracks right over east TN and a just in time change over for eastern KY.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm a pretty big fan of the Ukie and Euro's evolution of this week's system ay H5, (especially the Ukie's). Can we just go ahead and lock that in and not have a 200 mile NW jump last minute? Euro: Ukie:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is a a pretty big blob of convection in the 5 region, in the South China Sea (apparently that one is part of an Invest or Depression, or whatever they are called these days): Also a pretty decent chunk of it over the central Indian Ocean, but nothing to really write home about there: In terms of the OPs, it'll be interesting for me to watch if this big -ve NAO develops and retrogrades, as the wxtwittersphere is suggesting. I've never seen one like this one actually work out, so no clue how the OPs will look if that plays out.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    So I know some of you are more up on TN football news than I am, but am I understanding the news about the NCAA investigation correctly in thinking that we have cheated our way to 3-7??? If so, that takes skill. Could we at least be 5 - 5 and not have fake punts to get first downs on Vandy if we are bribing players to come here?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the EPS mean FWIW. Looks to me about as good as 12z yesterday and an improvement from the overnight EPS: The ever stingy snow mean:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think at this point, we're not just used to these systems failing, but that expectation has even settled into our bones. It's happened so much, I'm not sure this one would be any worse for me. Might as well have fun with it while we can!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like, if I'm reading Jax's data right (and I may not be) it would be between 2 AM and 8 AM Friday.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has more emphasis on the energy I circled in my post this AM: Good Euro run I would say, for eastern areas.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Result in accums, for those interested:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET handles the energy very differently from its 0z run. Result is better for central and western areas.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beautiful plateau sunrise this AM:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's SEC championship Saturday, and you know what that means... Happy Hour GFS is at 6z! On a half way more serious note, guess which model had that more wound up/ cut off southern solution yesterday at 12z??? J M A Although I have to say the Canadian had a similar solution for a while, but for a different reason. The 0z CMC has a triple phaser, just a wee bit too far west and north to be optimal for us. Man the overnight Euro was ugly, like y'all said. It even gives us a tiny little bit of CAPE and a lot of shear: Hopefully the Euro is overamping that initial push of energy (although following weather weenie rule 35 tnweathernut reminded me of yesterday, probably not). But it has overamped some systems in this range in the past month. I can't find the images, but at one point the Euro had, in this time frame (around hour 120), a wound up storm dumping snow on middle TN. It ended up less wound up, but that doesn't mean it will this time. It's actual depiction of the energy looked closer to a better solution and if you discount the wound up energy heading to the lakes, it isn't too far from the GFS or CMC: Notice the piece of energy I circled. It closes off a secondary piece of energy to our south. Of course the same rule I applied to the first piece that closes off (above) could also be applied to this piece. If it is overampy, maybe it is overamping both. I say let's go for the WPC's idea, for now: "While the amplifying evolution is a consistent and agreeable theme in the guidance, the details are still fairly uncertain. If anything the new 00Z guidance is lowering confidence somewhat given a return to more spread for exactly how Eastern Pacific shortwave energy reaching the West evolves in the short range/early medium range time frame, with the 00Z UKMET/CMC not comparing particularly well with recently established consensus. To some degree these issues feed through the rest of the period. Interaction from Canadian flow provides added complexity. Among the 12Z/18Z solutions the GFS/ECMWF/CMC clustered fairly well in principle, suggesting steady progression of the northern tier system and then one or more waves (possibly with fairly strong development) embedded along the trailing front that crosses the eastern U.S. Another surface low could form in the vicinity of the Great Lakes (or elsewhere nearby) based on these solutions closing off an upper low. Ensembles show greater spread including hinting at some potential for slower shortwave energy such as what the new UKMET/CMC suggest, while keeping the overall upper trough open. For the purposes of a single deterministic forecast, preference sided with an operational 12Z/18Z model blend (more emphasis on the GFS/ECMWF) for about the first half of the period and then some inclusion of the 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF means to tone down the GFS/ECMWF/CMC specifics given the detail uncertainties farther out in time."
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy Hour GFS time:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I suspect there are a few EPS members that look more like the GFS, but won't have access to individual members until after 4 PM.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know, it wasn't too bad. Could have looked like the ICON.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the UKMET precip and H5 vorts: The front is really distinct on the precip map, and you can almost see the wave starting to form. I feel like the energy would try to close off or go negative in a good spot for some of us. Euro was pretty different than the UKMET yesterday, though.
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