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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Plateau sunset: You can hear the wind aloft. Something fun must be going on higher up. I took a short time lapse of the clouds rolling. You can actually see this cloud formation on the local GOES 16 imagery, at the bottom of the Frozen Head mts. Really, just a vividly blue sky, after the drear of late.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM NAMed you @BlunderStorm Not great for the rest of us in East TN, but that is the best the NAM has looked so far: (past 3 runs trend):
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are our 2 main pieces of energy: I think the piece to the north is the most important one for us, since it is the piece that rounds the bottom of the trough that the initial piece carves out.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    A decent bump in the presentation of the 12 hr SREF snow mean. Curious to see if the NAM comes in a bit better this time.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're doing this GEFS, whether you like it or not. SREF H5 is digging the trough more than 9z: 15z 9z:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS tries to keep some leeside hope alive:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even if this storm fails, we should keep this open as the GEFS Dandridge Dollop thread. Model specific banter at it's finest!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the blockier patterns I've seen showing up at the end of the Euro OP: not sure if it would get the job done for us, in that specific set up, but cool to see the blocking.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Awesome satellite imagery early this AM that shows some of the local microclimates. What especially stands out to me are the WAA areas in the eastern Valley and the areas up against that N. plateau that normally get a little CADing in in Miller B type systems: probably a lot more to learn from a satellite image like this.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the winter panels. Kuchera ratios aren't available to me for the 6z Euro and 18z Euro. I suspect the accums below would be a bit (maybe not much though) higher with frigid 850s. Also keep in mind it is still snowing in NE sections past the end of the 6z Euro's run:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    We can do it the old fashiond way until we get winter panels: 3hr precip accum.: 850 temps: Looks like the 850 front hits the eastern plateau around Noon Christmas Eve and makes it to the mts by 6 PM. I would say it spreads a general .25 - .3 (maybe more in extreme NE areas) in that window. Keep in mind, if you are looking at these gifs, the precip one shows the past 3hrs of precip, so you have to look at the the temps at the later time stamp and guestimate a bit.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Energy looks RGEMish on the 6z Dr. Schmaybe Trying to pinch off a piece of energy at the bottom of the trough and go negative, ever so slightly: Digging the bottom of the trough deeper by a couple hundred miles, to my eye. Precip. map isn't out yet.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks to all for the awesome posts overnight! Special thank you to @Stovepipe. I laughed more at that picture than I have at anything on here since the @PowellVolz "Chicken in Doghouse" gif (patent pending).
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just so everyone is clear, I did not edit that, lol. Go to https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/, choose today's 18z GEFS there and drag the timer to hour 138. Zoom in from there.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lol, I just realized what the old GEFS was doing to us with that higher dollop around Dandridge.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Weird bump on the old version of the18z GEFS mean around Dandridge: You have to zoom into see it. New version of the 18z GEFS was more stingy, but did improve for a similar area over 12z. Toggled the two runs in a gif below. (More light blue = newer run)
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yup. I bet there will be a good NAMing though, before all is said and done, either way it falls out.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some relevant thoughts from the WPC's afternoon disco: "The presence of convection may favor a faster eastward progression of the cold front within the model spread...Besides the lake effect snow being likely in the cold cyclonic flow on the cold side of the system, sufficiently strong frontal wave development along a favorable path could also produce a band of meaningful cold sector snowfall from the central Appalachians to the interior Northeast following frontal passage. The scale of one or more such waves is small enough to keep confidence low for a while."
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the EPS still has a few members that form a leeside low along the front:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think any one solution is a done deal yet. Individual impulses in the amplified flow will have a say. Still not much consistency IMO.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Climo call for eastern TN areas: Moisture chasing cold. A slushy inch possible on grassy surfaces above 1500', higher accumulations possible above 3000 feet. Schmaybe mood flakes in valley locations below 1500'
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dr. Schmaybe lives up to the name: Looks more progressive a la the GFS.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    While we're waiting on Dr. Schmaybe, here is something for you strat junkies:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET was pretty ugly. But it has been bouncing around a lot with each run. That being said, it is not an unreasonable way the storm could play out. Low develops on the front and tracks right over east TN and a just in time change over for eastern KY.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm a pretty big fan of the Ukie and Euro's evolution of this week's system ay H5, (especially the Ukie's). Can we just go ahead and lock that in and not have a 200 mile NW jump last minute? Euro: Ukie:
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