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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Member 47 was fun for y'all up that way too!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same over here on Frozen Head. Tried to get a pic but the clouds only cleared out for a little while. Hopefully I can get one tomorrow.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    What do y'all think of the NAM's depiction of ice in Sequatchie county? : Looks like it wants to bank some low level cold air up against both sides of the Sequatchie Valley. I'm not really interested in chasing ice, for ice's sake, seems waaay too dangerous. But from a TN Valley microclimate standpoint, I'm curious. The Icemeisters over in the Carolinas seem to put a lot of stock in the NAM's thermal profiles, but I'm not sure if the same thing would work out over here?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's hoping!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    RAP weenie run for the plateau:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Now the next great question for today. Do we see the sun before nightfall? I'm pessimistic about my chances:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to get some wet snow mixing in here. I can look up to a nearby mountain and see the snow line at around 1800 feet.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    My temp has dropped 5 degrees in the lats hour. 42 -- 37. Maybe I can get a flake or two, lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    With that last gasp batch of precip over middle TN though it looks like the snow level is only about 500 feet. looks like @Kentucky was right in the middle of the early changeover that bearman mentioned. Hopefully he got some accumulations out of it.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally figured out how to get the height of the snow line on my radar app. Looks like over the eastern TN valley it is around 2k feet and dropping steadily
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest HRRR hammers Clay and Knox counties, KY. 13.3 jackpot spot. I have absolutely no confidence in that sort of an amount, but that model starts to change that area over as early as 1 - 2 AM NAMs backed off sig. from their 6z runs throughout today, but the RAP seems to be coming back a bit.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sun setting here and temp finally starting to drop, just as clouds are rolling in, (as Dan said in the other thread). Some mid 40s on Wunderground's map near Somerset, KY
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another Frozen Head trip. Definitely chilly above 3000'. Some cold air advection clouds too.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stole the idea to look for this off Jeff Piotrowski on twitter, but this a stout disturbance and lapse rates (maybe??) are helping create some convective snow in western OK. I think the disturbance if forecast to become less wound up as it moves across our area, but I wonder if any one can get some thunder 24 hours from now?
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Now the NAM, RGEM, and the RAP (show here for full snow weenie effect) have come around to some version of what it has been showing. Scratch that the 06z new HRRR looks pretty for y'all out in parts of Middle and west TN It drops the High Knob Hammer with 8 inches at LPN. All other models cut that in half. RGEM even gets into the coveted purple area in its snow precip. depiction just west of Nashville, for small window. Rooting for y'all in Nashville and SWVA and hoping i can get a surprise change over too.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of Cross Mt. @John1122, you can really see some downsloping on satellite this afternoon. I've been getting a little bit of upslope enhanced precip here in MoCo.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    So we’re at the point that we have to fake punts to get 1st downs on Vandy?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 11 loves us and wants us to be happy:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z 3km NAM actually tries to change y'all over before the end.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, it looked like it was the heaviest precip contour on weathermodels. Really heavy precip has def. been consistent across most models.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope it does. I guess I'm just in a bearish mood right now and won't believe it until I see it.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know what the Euro is smoking, but I'm going to drive up to Huntsville and Oneida Monday AM, to see if anything like this verifies:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    God bless the CMC, it's really trying to help some of us out.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’m not entirely convinced the second one has moved as far south as it will. Some of the EPS members looked better than the OP for TRI and the 6z Euro continued the trend with the energy nudging just a tad more south as it drops over the southwest. But yeah, that line somewhere between Wytheville and Marion is usually the cut off. Y’all did pretty good with something like this in Dec. 2018, right? I think my parents in Ridgefields right on the Holstein (probably one of the warmest areas in Sullivan county) got maybe 8 inches. That HP is so close to being in sync with the Low, but just a little too far ahead of it to keep everything south. hopefully as winter goes on we can get more highs to start dropping down if cold can keep building in Canada.
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