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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Come on NAM, bring it home: 6z Euro looks good for any central and NE MS folks:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    This event now in the 18z Euro's timeframe:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's a maniculum!!! They were often used by manuscript and early printed books readers as finding aides (similar to how we might use a highlighter): We've been warned, but not sure of what!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I am not much of a fan of, right now, is this mess:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think some of the wishy-washy, waffly-doffly SE ridgeish looks at H5 we've been seeing in the 10 days+ range, may have to do with another Pac jet extension, triggered by a Siberian High descent and subsequent low formation in the pac (much smaller than the last one). High descent circled in black and low development circled in red: and here is what happens with the jet, notice that it gets stronger then weakens and gets more broken up:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Ukie: Looks like, at least for now, the difference is energy over the midwest that turns the midlevel flow out of the south and mess up thermals. Ukie doesn't have it in the same place some of the other globals do: Ukie: CMC (as the most prominent example):
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Para GFS looks better for that system at Happy Hour:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I tried anticipating the happy hour GFS a couple of days ago, and I failed miserably. But hey, I'll always have the SREFs. On a topical note, here is a dramatic rendering of tnweathernut's PBP. (I can't take credit for it):
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    NOOOOOOOO!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    You're not wrong
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is also N/W:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It goes neutral over the MS River, you'd think it would get more precip. toward middle TN: It could see something cutting off RH in the mid levels. Sure enough (sorry as I was typing this I though, ehhh, might as well look) The energy over Iowa pulls in some dry air. If that were to drop further south and interact with the southern energy more, I would think it would better for more areas in TN.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    If that were to be how it worked out, would expect some deep Gulf moisture getting thrown back towards the mountains from SWVA NEward.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has a nice phase for plateau east, but precip maps look skimpy:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I rolled the dice. No fancy names from me this time. Felt wrong for this one for some reason.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snowfall looks elevation dependent on it:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Usually the COD site is the last to have model data, but it is whipping TT and Pivotal with the CMC today:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC still has moisture, but also has warmed some since its 0z run. Strangely seems further south with the 850 low than 0z. Maybe some of the cooling it saw at 0z was dynamically driven?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 12z RGEM will be pretty similar to 6z. drills Kingsport and Hawkins county. Bays Mountain leeside (in this case NW of the mountain, to the lee of the SE flow) inverted trough upslope! Also of note, looks like this will be overnight for most eastern areas.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks that one was win for Chattanooga!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like parts of TN just got a good old NAMing. Can’t post pics right now.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It takes so long for the precip. type panels to load on weathermodels, but here are the 6z Euro snow totals, compared to 0z 6z: 0z:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro was warmer with 850 temps and a bit north with the 500 mb ULL. I don't have winter panels yet, but probably not going to be as nice a solution. But yeah, like you said, hopefully we're in nowcast time with where the ULLs (500 and 850 mb levels) track. We are now also in.... wait for it.... wait for it..... the time of that tumultuous lover.... SREF
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM tracks the 850 low right over the TN/NC border, so there is a nice stripe of snow just to the NW of that. NAM keeps that feature further south, so everything stays a little further south. I would think if the 850 low approached the mountains on the TN side, it would want to run up through the valley, since some of the mts are above 850mb. Euro kind of splits the diff. and pinballs the 850 low off the Nantahalas and into the SC midlands. Also, that that inverted trough Math/Met mentioned above, looks like it is on the RGEM too. Seems like it's been forever since I've heard about one of those mentioned for our area enhancing snowfall.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It kind of looks like the Euro and the RGEM, but more suppressed. Based what I saw at it's precip presentation (not had any time to dig deeper this AM yet) it seems possible.
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