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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM has now flipped to send the SLP primarily up east of the Apps. Changes some of Cumberland county over at around 7 - 8 AM:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro is trying to change over some parts of the plateau overnight into very early Mon morning:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie upped plateau totals ever so slightly
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I though I'd create a thread for this storm since there may be another one we are talking about in the main thread for the end of this week. I think the full moon of November is technically called the Beaver Moon, but I just couldn't bring myself to call it that.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    In terms of the long range pattern, the battle of wits ensembles continues: GEFS EPS: GEPS:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on the 0z NAM's surface low plots, I vote we call this the Hoot Owl storm:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    'Twere pretty @Daniel Boone but surely no match for SREF plumes:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro mighty close to making the jump across the Apps:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    They've been pretty consistent for both our areas with a one inch mean and no members showing 0.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BhamParker Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018. I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this: 6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+ But below that, here is what it looked like at about 5000-5500 feet: 4500 - 5000 feet: 2500 - 3000 feet: Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte: I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS looks like it almost wanted to run the SLP from Macon, GA to Charlotte, NC, but randomly jumps at hour 36 back to the TN/ NC border: I guess we're just at "see what happens time" now. One thing I did notice today was that there was a stronger wedge (from obs at southerwx) and a little bit of a leeside low near Asheville: That's now transitioned to a more of a diffuse area of lower pressure and the WPC even has a couple of what I think are inverted surface troughs and a Low hanging out in the piedmont. This may play a role in how the surface low behaves too, but honestly I'm not sure:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, their 1 -2 for Roan Mountain seemed a little low to me, but maybe they mean the town of Roan Mountain and not the 5500 - 6000 peak. Did I read earlier that you were getting a cabin near Gatlinburg @BhamParker?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    The WRF NMM showed a similar solution at 12z: That would be as much of a run for my location as I can probably hope for.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z RGEM plows the surface low right up the TN/ NC border.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it, lol. 18z RGEM is coming in further SE.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM is west again, but shows some change over in Middle TN toward Monday early AM
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the Ukie SLP gif. The gif jumps north at the end because the SLP drops off the SE sector view:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie also has that SLP reflection off the GA coast to pull on the Gulf low some, hopefully a good sign that a global sees that too.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's popping a low pretty far south in the Gulf 1013 mb SE of Brownsville as compared to 1012 off the coast of Corpus Christi at 0z
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie might be a good test for the front theory. Looks like it is already pressing it further south on this run compared to 0z. Only out to 12 hours for now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I answered my own question lol. Interesting to look at 10m wind on the same three mesoscale models: Nam 3k: WRF: RGEM: It does seem like there is a correlation between how far south the front makes it and how eastward the SLP moves. The WRF-ARW gets it a little further south and has the most easterly of tracks: It also gives a little more umphh to a surface low off the GA coast which tugs on the Gulf low a bit. Could be a question of how the convection impacts the SLP formation?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is where it looks like the front is on the latest SPC mesoscale analysis's windbarbs:
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