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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Need the coastal plain areas to take one for the team. Gotta have that northern stream vort the south of us and phase with the southern stream there
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Shake the winterizing stick most winterly:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even the new, magical, CMC has the idea. I would say some sort of a big Gulf low is a guarantee, details TBD, since models have been honking on it for a while and have been as consistent as they can be, but we see how that's worked out the past two years.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    If any one lives in the E. mts or SW VA, here's the monster John was talking about, not sure I've ever sen those colors on the Euro snow maps over anything near our area, lol: Like John said: 500mb low passes southeast of us What gives valley and southern folks the extra screw is the phasing at 850mb. I'm guessing that upper low over Iowa and Illinois messes with the dynamic cooling of the southern low. Still....
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pay site.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed: It cut my gif short. Sorry had several other towns in there. Does favor N and E sections though
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    double yum:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yum: But as we all know, it is still in that mythical 10+ day time.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET ins interesting for eastern areas this PM:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Mr. Kevin There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr): https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967 Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT. Also see:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Isotherm:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    This evening's GEFS run, brought to you by member 4: Always remember, to never forget, member 4...
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Control looks like it would have been a beast, but don't have the individual members yet, outside of UL winds: Looks like the 850 circulation was a little too far north for many of use though: Might not be too bad though from NE Arkansas and NW TN up the Ohio valley
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ah what the heck I figured it out on this computer:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can't comment much or make a gif right now, but to my eyes at least, the Euro was close to some the bigger solutions the GFS has been throwing out with its energy at H5.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure what wiggle room you have, but if it was me and no concerns about the time, I'd wait until it gets into the Mesoscale models' range. Just don't believe the 3km NAM when it dumps 40 inches on Leconte, lol. Like Carver's said it is a touchy setup and still time for it to go either way. The folks over in the Foothills and Mts SE forum still seem keen on it.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET still looks upslopey and even had a little bit of Gulf moisture snow at the very end: Magical new CMC look like it might have been heading somewhere after 240 hours, but otherwise, same old pattern.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe this will add some excitement to an otherwise blahhh model day: Does this mean we get a new CMC at 12z today?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    OP Euro was pretty bad at 240 too.: A zonal look in mid to northern Canada. Without that big upper low in the plains, you'd have a subtropical ridge across the whole CONUS, lol. The Control evolves that look to some ridging over AK. EPS looks like it is split between some members keeping the TPV over AK and some members seeing the ridging. Actually some convection around the dateline, but north, this AM: The Indian ocean looks about the same, but there is a critter of some kind creeping west from around Sri Lanka: Meanwhile the SPV looks stout and only getting stouter: But all the cold air is on our side of the globe at the end of the EPS: No sloshing needed! And it'll all look different in 12 hours, lol.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Member 16 of the GEFS had a little 93, with snow from Louisiana north and east.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I noticed on that OP run was that the Hudson Bay ridge really, really wanted to retrograde to Alaska, but the PV piece there kept it locked in. Maybe this AAM spike is trying to force that HL blocking for a typical Nino look and the PV piece is just locking it in there? I sped it (only hours 72 -204) up so it seems more apparent:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a close up now that TT is running better for me.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some reason tropical Tidbits is running slow, so used Pivotal:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Which one are you talking about the GFS?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    That vort on that one run took almost the exact track. If there had been some organized souther stream energy in the Gulf, that would have been the GFS run to end all GFS runs, lol
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