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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah @Carvers Gap to poke the bear a bit, check out the 18z CMC:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS looks north from 12z too. Not quite as nice as the NAM, but still quite a jump.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    3km NAM looks tasty as well:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good old fashioned NAMing at 18z:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET trying to come north too, still rather suppressed, but much less so than 12z yesterday:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Our little shortwave west of CA still looks stout this AM and a nice moisture feed from the STJ in the Pac: I feel like it might be a little more potent when all is said and done.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro also looks like it has some convection parallel to the Gulf Coast. If that happened it could cut off the moisture to an extent. How long has it been since we've even had a chance to worry about Gulf convection cutting off moisture though, lol.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looking better with the moisture in southern plains: Looks like a little more SW flow, but its so close. What a weird set up in regards to its details. Lots of lil vorts in the southern stream too. The flow is almost precisely W --> E any variation to either NW or SW could produce very different results.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    It would be kind of a consummation for this winter if we got the look at hour 84, only to fizzle out and suppress as it moves east.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    1/3 of EPS members are north enough to make it interesting at this range:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    In fact here it is as of now: Wish I had included CA for size, it is small but fiesty.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    So on second thought, I kinda think the piece of energy over the Pacific right now is a key here: Euro swings it in underneath the N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM: swings it out much more intact. Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Euro is going to come in about the same as 0z, or maybe a little north, depending on the frame you look at. To my eyes anyway, just not a huge difference. But this seems to me to be sort of a hair trigger set up. To get precip you have to have two things, moisture and forcing. We have moisture at 500 and 700 mbs: But a shortwave cuts off that flow as it swings through: Now look how differently the NAM handles that piece: The big HP looks like a done deal, we want to root for more return flow and it wouldn't take much given that the flow is basically W to E ahead of it on all models. Maybe there is reason to be hopeful as these shortwaves can sometimes amp up last minute....or at least suppression = more dry out time. Hopefully we can eek out a few EPS hits.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hvward, a met over in the SE mountains and foothills thread, brought up the NAVGEM scoring a coup DEC 2017. As I understand it, NAVGEM is generally the most progressive model and even it gets more precip north than the UKMET:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET does something odd with the energy, it pushed it ENE and washes it out, where the NAM and GFS kick more out. Euro at 0z was a compromise between the two camps, we'll see what it says in about an hour.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFs and GFS like the idea of the second piece possibly coming out of TX: UKMET says nope and suppression, though it is further north with the first piece of energy:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    On the one hand I can buy into that, since the flow seems to have been more progressive than modeled this winter, but on the other hand, it is the NAM, builder of hopes and crusher of dreams
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    the NAM at range looks like it wants to bring the whole shebang out of TX wit ha 1044 parent high nosing down:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro OP looks north for especially the second wave, even some snow into VA, though that could be from a N. steam shortwave trying to hook up with the energy ejecting out of TX:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the best I have from weathermodels, MSLP: 18z: VS 6z
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully the southernwx folks won't kill me for stealing these pics, but I don't have access on weathermodels for 18z EPS to more than basic maps. EDIT: sorry just realized that this is the control only. The mean does look better though.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll see if I can find some pics, but apparently the EPS and control at 18z looked a lot better for the post frontal deal later this week.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also interesting to see how the Control progresses the flow after the giant cutter the OP is starting to show (and the EPS is dead set on). Looks like it opens the gates of the arctic:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tropical convection looking a lot like it did about a month ago. Winding up and aiming southeast. Today (sorry no gif, Himawari was acting weird, flickering in and out): Last month: That added +AAM and resulted in: (loop from Jan 24 - 28) Sorry for the speed, more meant to show the Hudson's Bay block. Some similarities on today's EPS, at least through hr 270:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Up in Kingsport right now so no pics, but the UKMET looked a tick better with a wave that rides right after the mid week front drops through, but still suppressed after that
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