Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,575

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Secondary disruption of the SPV finally starting to get into Euro range: GFS still has it too and now looks similar to the Euro with a displacement to the south:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro backed off on the rain totals overnight, but not by too much:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Top of the line rolling through now. Sounds like a tropical downpour. More vivid lightning https://giphy.com/gifs/XdD1lHWteTEi6MPD0B
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow. In only 27 hours... looks like 6-7 in the southern, eastern great valley this is one heck of a system.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apparently you have to have a special camera to catch lightning. I had my phone set up and got a super vivid flash and this was all it took: All you can see is a little bit of light through the trees, and you better be in a dark room, lol
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, first edge of that mess is hitting me now. Heaviest rain of the day and lightning now.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    This looks pleasant:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looks a little better for the middle TN and E KY folks for Thursday:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GEFS has a nearly 13" MEAN lollipop in SW NC:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hard to believe, but here we are.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro precip projections. Up close and personal: EPS city plots:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    at least the NAM still looks nice for the third wave deformation zone or whatever it is: heck Nashville is looking better than me: the Saturday storm has fizzled now across most reliable models.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    front yard, day 1: several creeks crossing the roads in my area of Morgan county (Mossy Grove)
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you thought the GFS was bad at 15 days with flooding potential, wait till you see what the Euro has by day 10
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    My grandad was a principle in Scott county schools at that time.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    A friend of mine and I were sitting in my office and he brought up the great Harriman flood of the emory river in March 1929. Thought I'd look at NCEP for upper air similarities: March 1929:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    and the run wasn't even over yet, lol:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing about the overnight ensembles, even if the 500 mb pattern mean doesn't look great, we have all the cold air on our side of the globe, any shake up to the pattern will hopefully drop it down in the CONUS, can we keep it out of the west though? GEFS and EPS 850 temps:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Further afield, in the magical tropical lands, looks like a cyclone has stolen our convection in the western Indian Ocean, but some of the convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is rolling west. Maybe one of those equatorial Rossby waves? Still not sure what is what. Still kinda scattered in the West Pac, but at least some convection in the 7ish maybe 8 areas? GFS still likes the idea of at least a displacement of the SPV toward us for once:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM still NAMifying this AM with the Thursday wave: Really interested to se if the radar actually looks like what the NAM has been showing for a few days for the Thursday wave when all that precip just materializes to the west of us. NAM kind of looks like the UKMET with the Saturday thing now: Like John said the Euro did flop on the Saturday storm, but the energy is still there, just favoring the more suppressed solutions the EPS had been offering. TBH I'd rather have it looking a little weak and suppressed. sheared at this range, so at least we have some wiggle room for it not to go north as it verifies a little NW as stronger than modeled. Absolutely no guarantees too doesn't verify as a washed out, weak wave, but at least it has room to improve now. EPS, according to Bob Chill when Ji in the MA forum was panicking about the 18z EPS last night, usually follows the OP at this shorter range, so not unexpected to see it back off some, but it still looks as good as it did yesterday at 0z, but not quite as good as it did yesterday at 12z: Knoxville snow hole in effect again, and don't even ask about Chattanooga or Memphis.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM keeps doing NAM things. A sub 995 low over Cloumbia, SC ain't nothing to sneeze at: To paraphrase a Met from the MA forum, "now if we can just get one of the good models to follow suite..."
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour also delivers on the strat:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Steady uptick on the mean over the last 5 runs, with Knoxville snow hole in effect:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFS looks fairly steady too:
×
×
  • Create New...