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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apologies to mempho, but taking a brief break from fighting the southeast ridge balrog as I plummet to the lake below Kazaduum. Not saying it will verify, but that GFS run looked a lot like last Feb: I will say if we want to see a strong attack on the SPV, having the pattern the OP GFS depicted at 12z is a good way to get it started from the Atlantic side.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somewhat encouraged by the nW drift this PM of convection in the 2/3 zone: The 4/5 isn't as bad as it looks on the above, but it ain't great either
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    some similarities, mayhaps:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    happy times! for exactly 6 hours no less!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strat is ugly this PM. Euro had a big consolidated purple blob at day 10 and the gfs too at day 15. Both show disruptions in the day 6-7 range, but reconsolidation after that.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    We kind of saw something like this earlier in the winter: Sorry for the arrows (they were originally for when I used this early in the season) but you can see a similar dance at the pole in the first few frames. This is from when there was talk about a flip at the end of December, but the attack just pushed it back to Greenland and we got the +NAO
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    As I understand it right now (subject to change ad I learn more) the dynamic tropopause shows places where the stratospheric polar vortex dips down into the troposphere. So in this example, you can see a bit of subtropical something or other being deflected poleward and disrupting what I see as the main TPV. Heres how that would translate to a potential -AO at 500 mb. (sorry for the backwards and forward, but wanted to make sure I captured the interaction in the gif) Just using the GFS for an example and because I don't have the Euro's dynamic tropopause content.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure I know enough about the terminology to know the difference, lol. The talking wxtwitter heads are calling it a "wave two" disruption and using jet maps and dynamic tropopause images, so I'm guessing its a bottom up kind of thing with storms slinging energy poleward and upward. But this is a good mission for me today and would like to try and figure it out.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indian Ocean is purt near lit this AM too
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting to me to see how it all kind offsets as you get lower in the atmosphere.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's how the "triplets" idea translates from 10 mb to 50 mb, to 100 mb, to 500 mb:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is back to its triplet idea with the SPV while the GFS is still wavering. I think something is definitely going to happen to disrupt the SPV in abut 6 - 7 days, but how that plays out afterwards, hard to say. Most likely outcome would be reconsolidating, based on persistence, but not guaranteed.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    That shakes up the areas where the SPV dips down toward the troposphere
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it's a case by case basis. Because it has been so well coupled I think when it recently rolled back to Siberia, I think that helped promote the Hudson Bay Ridging, but could be wrong there. I'm also not sure exactly what mechanisms transport the displaced the cold air if there is a split. I do know we want something like what the GFS showed in the dynamic tropopause. Lots of poleward disruptions to kick swipes of energy of the pole and toward the mid latitudes.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it also goes for the SPV split again around 260 hr, but reconsolidates.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour doesn't give us much, but the GFS likes the idea of a mega EPO ridge late.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw some other folks posting the EPS members and sure enough, at least for now, they are downright enthusiastic, for the period above, especially considering how far out that is If you look really close, there's even one Chattanooga special in there, lol
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    CFS weekly for that period from 12z today looks pretty similar:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm down with that. Definitely not as healthy as it has looked most of this winter.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe everything is finally lined up to give us more confidence, lol. Or maybe we's about to get the old magic carpet ride:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kinda matches the Euro and CFS weeklies too.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll be honest, I didn't see much of a split, but you may have access to other levels than me, I only have 50 and 10 mb: that is the 50 mb, and the 10 mb looks more consolidated.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It could, or it might not, we've seen both. Euro was brewing up some weird storm at the end and although it runs the low right in the eastern valley, there was still quite a bit of energy carving out a trough into the gulf
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