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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It forgot to get a running start to help it cut, lol!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    oooh 18z GFS gets the purple colors into Cumberland county:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm superstitious and it makes me nervous when news outlets latch on this far out. Gotta sneak up for full effect.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out how the 3k NAM sees the 3rd wave going down: Looks to me like it wants to keep the upper low back long enough to allow some return flow after the front:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just saw the EPS posted in the mountains and foothills over in the SE forum. It has upped the ante: best look I feel like we've seen all year
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro, Euro, come getcha Euro, get it while its hot:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree, it's everywhere right now and that's why we have the COD. I just think the GFS goes a little bonkers with cyclones in 6, so it amps it up too high. But TCs are hard to predict, so I guess it is a wait and see game for that one as of now. In brighter news the Euro looks to come in good this PM for the 3rd wave thingy and Saturday.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at the GFS satellite predictions, I think one thing the GFS is doing with the MJO is popping some cyclones in the south Pac ITCZ. We started with some good convection in the 7/8 regions, but all of it got eaten up in TC Tino, and that led to the +AAM, westerly wind burst, and big run through 6 earlier. Euro still has convection in those areas, but maybe not as active with TCs (sorry for the bouncies)
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I almost extrapolated it's energy at hour 84 too, lol. It was further south and west than the Euro with it driving down the Rockies and probably would have given us a proper NAMing for the 9th storm.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I always forget to look at the UKMET, lol. It gives a different evolution for the 9th:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks. For some reason every other variable populates on weathermodels for the 6z Euro before precip. The NAM is popping a surface low stronger, earlier, and further east, so probably why it gives us that little stripe of anafrontal snow. IMO that could be something the NAM would pick up on first, or could be overamping due to convection.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's going to be interesting to see how the precip. maps come out for the 6z Euro, at least for the 7th event that has NAM'd us. It looks similar at 500 mb to the NAM, but is a little further west with its surface low.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it even went for a little bit of anafrontal too at 6z: OH BOY!!! first NAMing in two months!!!!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'd be feeling pretty good about that one if I lived on High Knob, Pikeville/ Wise areas. Not that it is out of the question for others, but I think elevation and latitude will win on this one. EPS has not really backed off or amped up since yesterday: Although it does look like it too likes the idea of some flakes behind the 3rd wave we've been talking about, (the one John mentions above)
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM was optimistic with the 3rd wave deal we've been talking about: I'll count the Saturday thing as a win if we get NAM'd a couple of times, lol.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry @Kentucky saw you down in the "recently browsing" tab and realized I keep forgetting your area in these:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS not quite as excited this afternoon, but probably the best odds, if we're just basing it solely on EPS 24 hours snow plots that we've had all season. Not that that's saying much:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like happy hour GFS was reading Jeff's mind, lol:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    So, just to show the envelope of potential for the system as the trough is lifting out, here is EPS member 37: and member 17: I'm guessing we need the last wave before that one to crank it up and git, git, git, to act like a 50/50 to force confluence and the next wave south. Something to root for anyway. Euro Control shows a middle ground between the two:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS shows some support for that one too, if we're walking about the same one, again mostly plateau west:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Runman292 We're at Leeroy Jenkins level when we are looking to the strat:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Any of y'all heard of this guy: He just joined twitter in the fall and was almost immediately followed by Masiello. Me, being the sucker I am, also followed him. He writes about the sun in ways I haven't heard anyone: Thoughts? Looks like he likes the 53 - 54 analogue too.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just noticed the Euro has a bunch of really, really strong lows all over the N Hemisphere. Could be par for the course, but seems odd ot me. maybe those have something to do with the attacks on the SPV
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    And by well I mean only 1 - 3 for some areas in the eastern TN valley
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