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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry I can never resist, but that makes twice this year we've seen something similar.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Glad you found it. My gifs only go back to early Dec now (they must limit the number you can have stored, gonna have to try to figure out Imgur I guess) I've been looking at old threads on 33 and Rain an southernwx and all I could get was one EPS H5 look from 29 Oct +312 hours:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Didn't we have some Bueller running joke last winter, lol. I can't remember.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I lived across from Holston Defense in Kingsport when I was growing up and it felt like some of the explosions over there did. Kind of like a shockwave.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow, heard and felt it here in Morgan County.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Was that what that was?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also interesting that the CFS and GEFS (I think they are both American models, right?) see stark differences in the current GWO and where it is headed: CFS keeps in it in the Nino forcing phases and amplifies it again, but less so then the last one: While the GEFS takes it down into the Nina phases, which I think would interfere with the pseudo Nino (and by that I mean nice STJ and Hudson's Bay ridge, but messed up N Pac) looks we're seeing now: Now obviously this is only one variable of many, but like I said yesterday, I'm kind of in Murphy's Law mode now.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I'm sheepish about is the Invest in the Indian Ocean: now the convection is nowhere near as deep as what birthed Tino in the West Pac, but a big flareup and subsequent S Hemisphere TC preceded the big +AAM burst that coincided with the big flip in long range models last week.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Though y'all might enjoy this. You can see air being funneled though the French Broad valley now through the mountains: There's some subsidence coming off Bays Mountain in E TN that's causing the break in the clouds on our side of the mts.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check this out now, you can see air getting funneled through the French Broad valley:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flizzard now, lol:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cool, so I guess you live on that part of it that I 81 runs across? Sorry you missed it. Still getting a few flurries here.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a thought. What if the downsloping off Bays Mountain, Short Mountain, or Frozen Head is pushing air to either side and as this air runs into the dominate low level flow (at this point down the river valleys), there's confluence? There's downsloping on infrared and that Baileyton band is just to the NE of that downsloping.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can see one of the bands on NT microphysics where there's some downsloping nearby to accentuate it:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's another one near Rogersville and looks like it briefly hit 40 dbz: Looks like a similar set up, but to the lee of Short Mountain:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    So it looks to me like it is starting near the X and, at least at the beginning while the flow is roughly NNW, it aims in general trajectory of the green cone. The red is the boundary of Sullivan county and I'm using it as a reference for the radar images. I know we've see this lee side stuff around the tip of Bays Mountain, but this seems like just a bizarre location for a upslope to start. Thoughts?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even some 30 dbz returns near I 81 at Baileyton. Exit 36 I think. If I still lived in Kingsport I'd chase this, lol!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    A pretty decent band to the lee of Bays Mountain aimed into Greene County:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's actually snowing here in Morgan County this AM.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can we just pretend the BOM's version of MJO phase 1 is where we really are now?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    In the mean time I'm hugging the GEFS control: Hours 120 - 150
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also saw someone post the UKMET in the Mid Atlantic forum. I hadn't looked at it, but more support for possibility with the next weekend system:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wouldn't it be something if, when all is said and done this Wednesday (when JMA runs again), ensembles are showing the -EPO again. The JMA would come out looking nice. GFS not bad Even the Euro Control was showing some ridging into AK at that time frame: Lots of shortwaves ricocheting around the next week + If we start to try to reel in a pattern shift again, I'm gonna be in Murphy's Law mode.
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