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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    For those interested, here is the control's storm:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like a lot of the individual members will have it too:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    All I have is the 850s, 500s 300s, etc. winds, but it looked like it could be nice
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, lol. It takes while for the members to load on weathermodels, but I was going to ask if weatherbell had the precip maps for that one.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Few thoughts on ye olden Kinge ensemble 12z: weird pattern just outside the OPs range, probably the only way we could have something have a chance in that modeled longwave pattern: Indeed the control runs and 850 low right over Chattanooga: If you wanted to look for something favorable toward the end, you can see a little bit of height rises over AK
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the Euro for reference to what I'm seeing:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, not bad overall considering where we are and the Euro looks like it was about to launch another bowling ball at us that would probably not cut as much as it looks like it might. It also looks like it might try to bury the energy like the GFS did. (Sorry can't make up my mind, lol) There a few frames of the GFS when I though it was going to time everything just right, (just outside the Euro OP range between hrs 268 and 288) for a nice storm, but it just left the energy back and let it spin over N. Mexico.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe it is seeing the Indian Ocean as a possible center now?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure. I still learning about how all that impacts us. Will definitely be interesting to see how things adjust, (if at all) when it levels out.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Was having a conversation with Jon over at Southernwx about this: The biggest caveat I see is that the most recent run was on Jan 15 and as we saw above, that was close to the time everything started to flip. If they still look good on the next release, I will be more interested. I didn't even know the JMA had ensembles, lol. But those verification maps look good to me.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Almost to the day, lol:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like a strong candidate to me:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's Saturday. It's raining. What the heck. I tried to sync them. GEFS from one week ago and then today: GEPS from last week and then today EPS same deal as above (not able to time as well since I only had hr 240+ saved): Trend of the GEPS centered on 1/26: Trend of the GEFS centered on the same day: And the EPS: Something happened between the 13th and the 14th that made em flip. Each one flipped in that time frame.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    No, I think it is probably right. But i just remembered that ice dragon gif I made and thought it actually looked like a fire dragon's breath now, lol.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I didn't mean to say it was wrong. I was just pointing out how big the swing was.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just to see teh true depth of the EPS's flip: one week ago today:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somehow living in the woods makes these rains 100% better than living in the city. They still stink, just not as much.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Longwave pattern the 12z GFS showed at the end of its run was a way to work with the +EPO. Not going to post it since it is the GFS and probably has a 1.42096998% chance of verifying, but it does show how what the EPS has been showing could roll forward and be at least a decent look with a +PNA.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET looked good for a few frames anyway, for that storm we've been discussing: If we could just get that southern energy to move out on its own.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    On the bright side 12z GFS gives E KY and SW VA a flurry fest for almost 3 days:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I was wrong, scroll until you see Isotherm for the first time.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap True, John has been on that. Here is the page: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52870-january-2020-general-discussions-observations-thread/page/63/ Starts about 3/4 of the way down. Just scroll until you see psu's pic, and it takes off from there.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't have the V Pot anomalies for the Euro OP, but I do for the Control. and looking at that, I'm not really sure what the Euro sees to send it back to 5/6. Looks to me like it still favors 1/2 I know OLR isn't the only thing that goes into the MJO RMM plot calculation, but you'd think it would show more convection over the MC for that RMM plot. Indian Ocean though: Some of it there even looks like to would be N of the equator.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH I'm not sure what it even sees. Euro and GFS both show some flare ups around S America in the days 7 - 10 window, but that's about it.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just for speculation, let's assume Raindance is right: "The patterns have been operating in repeat mode nationally at about a 3.5 month lag, so the H2 November storminess should come back about March, for two weeks. The 1/16 storm in New Mexico roughly corresponded timing wise to the 10/4 storm in New Mexico. The idea is 9/16-10/15 is roughly January, so 11/16-12/15 is roughly March." So that would put us at around October 6th's pattern as of now, if Raindance's approach pans out. Here's a quote form Jeff on Oct. 15 (not picking him for any reason other than it was a succinct summary of where we were at then): "Front parade continues. Looks like midweek and again early next week; warm in between." Sounds familiar, but with the difference that we are in January now. Looks like the Euro OP first showed the final push that flipped November around Oct. 18th, so that puts us 12 days (lol) from seeing a potential shake up, again, if Raindance's approach works. Now, interestingly enough, this big storm off the Canadian Maritimes, correlates almost perfectly if I extrapolate Raindance's approach, to Hurricane Lorenzo, a storm that started to shake up the hemisphere in October. Not going to spend a ton of time talking about it, because Cranky has a nice recap of Lorenzo and what it did: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/lorenzo.htm His conclusions for the TL/Dr crowd: Visual of it: Sorry if I'm pushing cranky a lot today, but since the tropics aren't helping right now, gotta look north and up in the atmosphere and say what you will about him, he sticks to that sort of an approach.
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