Holston_River_Rambler

Recent article (as in Dec. 2020) (no paywall) by Drs. Amy Butler and Daniela Domiesen on SSWEs and their tropospheric impacts https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00060-z There'll be a pop quiz on Monday, lol. I'll be honest, I haven't read it yet, but though some of us might be interested. I'll probably read it in the AM.

In 18-19 the Jan SSW seemed to help fuel the convection of the MJO in the 4/5/6 areas. Hopefully, if there is a connection between the cooler temps at high altitudes in the tropics and enhanced convection, we can time it better just as some convection flares up over the western Pac areas: If it happened right now, and the above helps reignite convection, I'm not sure it wouldn't just sit over the areas it is now looks like mostly 5 to me: I think the strat. is a done deal now. Something is going to happen to mess with it. As to how it unfolds, whether or not it qualifies as a SSWE, whether or not there is a displacement or split, and if it helps NA pattern or not, those are the big questions. The 17-18 happened around mid Feb or so, and that one did result in a nice pattern, it just took a month for the eastern areas on North America to benefit from its repercussions, and by them we just had a grey, rainy, cold, spring. For now the Pac jet extension is coming and until we navigate that I think the ensembles will look nasty at times in the LR. That's not to say there isn't a chance of the storm we've been seeing for New Years, I don't mean to imply that at all. Just blah ensemble means like this: For reference and discussion (if any are interested in looking at them) here is the pattern in mid Feb 2018 that proceeded the SSW: ~A month later: A low can't cut, but it is a bit late in climo for us. I will try to dredge up some more of these type of gifs while we wait for the strat to do its thang. Maybe we can try to get a hint at what could happen.

6z GFS OP would be an ideal solution FMBY. The energy digs south and progresses through our longitude in a great way: If you've heard people say, "you have to get cold air and moisture to meet," this is a great way to get it. That NW to SE tilt the energy takes, helps throw that moisture back over the cold air. 6z GEFS (new version) more enthused for western areas, but still a lot of misses for everyone. Old 6z GEFS has some nice hits too. The UMKET has a really deep piece of energy that digs further south, but it turns negative too far west: The CMC and Euro are in the middle of these two. But I would say closer to the Ukie. Hopefully, if a similar set up happens again this week, western areas can benefit this time. EPS says nada.

For some reason the full gif didn’t load. The end looks even better! Some PNA action.

EPS too

EPS member 16 says Merry Christmas to TRI: HO HO HO

Yeah, it just gets shredded by the bigger storm earlier, when that storm hits the big block and gets stuck. 0z overnight/ 12z yesterday (side by side, no less, a la Carver) I think with the Pac jet extension caused by the big Siberian high, having the zonal look from overnight is gonna be a risk until the jet snaps back after that extension. it's like a conveyer belt of energy getting cranked up and spitting out energy that has to be timed just right with the big NAO block. About the same number of EPS members have a storm around that time though, as compared to the 12z run, so something is still possible in that window. The 6z GFS (it's Christmas, so why not) shows a positive outcome to what might happen as the jet retracts: Some of the bad convection areas looking fiesty right now too: The 3D Strat vortex looking rough, so that can't be anything but good. No big split guaranteed and like others have said, no telling exactly how that would turn out, but so far it being under stress seems to have been good: Ensembles:

I know which house you are talking about. I grew up a few houses away, lived there from 1983 - 2007. One of my best friends lived in that house for a while. Good times on that road and the mountain for me!

Indeed it is.

How will the Holston and Bays mountain look in 24 hours? Drippy right now

Took a drive to Sparta TN yesterday. Beautiful views of the western edge of the plateau looking towards Cookeville: Also, cool sunrise this AM up here, some cirrus, before dawn, were catching the sun: I had to tweak the above mage a bit to capture the almost eerie look, due to low light. Sunrise:

Neighbor had a telescope and I got to see ye olden conjunction, woot woot! It was able to resolve the rings of Saturn and some of Jupiter's moons!

Plateau sunset: You can hear the wind aloft. Something fun must be going on higher up. I took a short time lapse of the clouds rolling. You can actually see this cloud formation on the local GOES 16 imagery, at the bottom of the Frozen Head mts. Really, just a vividly blue sky, after the drear of late.

Awesome satellite imagery early this AM that shows some of the local microclimates. What especially stands out to me are the WAA areas in the eastern Valley and the areas up against that N. plateau that normally get a little CADing in in Miller B type systems: probably a lot more to learn from a satellite image like this.

So I know some of you are more up on TN football news than I am, but am I understanding the news about the NCAA investigation correctly in thinking that we have cheated our way to 3-7??? If so, that takes skill. Could we at least be 5 - 5 and not have fake punts to get first downs on Vandy if we are bribing players to come here?

Beautiful plateau sunrise this AM:

Happy Hour GFS time:

Took a run up to Frozen Head, above 3000 feet. A nice dusting and some rime ice: My house even had.... Wait for it... A slushy accumulation less than one inch on... ELEVATED SURFACES!!!!!

Snow level with the last gasp band over E TN now is at around 900 feet above the radar beam, which is at about 1100 feet in Morristown. So around 2000 feet and falling. Cameras and reports from NC High country say it is rippin' over there. Maybe Bays Mt. and other areas around that elevation can get in a few flakes before it ends:

I may have to drive out to see the conjunction. My horizon in that direction is a little too high to see it. @nrgjeff I'm so happy with the night skies where I live now. Def will be getting more astronomy equipment when I get the $$.

Looking coolish in some spots, up against the eastern plateau. Glad I have a bunch of firewood for tomorrow.

Just found a cool app that lets me take star pictures with my phone. Hopefully I will get better using it in time. Orion over MoCo:

And just like that, as soon as the set has set for an hour, cleared overhead with the a little bit of the Milky Way visible.

I would have liked to have seen where the OP went after 240: N. stream swinging a trough through, followed by a Yukon HP, almost dropping down in sync with the s/w left behind in the SW. Looks like a cross polar flow too. And the N. Stream wave could act as a 50/50

Member 47 was fun for y'all up that way too!