Holston_River_Rambler

Member 35 of the 12z EPS likes a snowier solstice solution:

Frozen Head this AM. Lots of nice waterfalls after the rain: Nice cold air advection interacting with the mt tops: Despite the rain, still some snow above 2500 feet: The mountains looked kinda foreboding this morning too.

GFS happy hour for SW VA and TRI:

I wonder if differential temps had something to do with it. I bet there was some good 850 WAA today.

Some fun perpendicular wave clouds coming off of the Smokies and the Frozen Head mts today, crashing together over Morristown:

Based on the 0z NAM's surface low plots, I vote we call this the Hoot Owl storm:

@BhamParker Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018. I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this: 6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+ But below that, here is what it looked like at about 5000-5500 feet: 4500 - 5000 feet: 2500 - 3000 feet: Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte: I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail.

It's almost SREF plume time boys and girls!!!! Above is for Crossville

Pics from my Frozen Head Turkey Trot today: Time lapse video looking SE: https://imgur.com/a/objhsi8 Other pics from Chimney Tops and the Lookout Tower: Looking N: Looking SE: Looking WSW: Looking NW towards Wartburg and the Obed:

Success!!!!! I must not have read what you said carefully enough, lol. Sorry!!! I've been trying to figure this out for a while.

It may be because I'm making them hidden posts. I had somebody try to preach to me about titles on Imgur when I uploaded a storm pic publicly once and decided I didn't care enough after that to make them public. I will try it again though, to see if it lets me link them. In terms of obs. coming back up onto the plateau the fog rolled in and was thick in places. And Kingsport still has a lot more leaves than we do here. I even saw a tree in the N slope of Bays Mt that still looked like it was a pale green.

I tried that stovepipe with the following link but it wouldn’t allow this link: https://imgur.com/a/fAAIbyn

Another good sunset this PM Powell. Driving through Powell and Claxton towards home. I do t have tapatalk. I should probably get it if it helps with pics. https://imgur.com/a/zIedxHD

"Eall is earfoðlic eorþan rice, onwendeð wyrda gesceaft weoruld under heofonum." --Summary of model roulette. This is what happens when there are happy hour weenie runs and I have to replace plumbing all day. Lol.

Interesting analysis of the NAO for TN:

One of those times I wish the GFS had just run about 48 more hours: I think it would have been an epic fantasy storm.

A little Saturday surprise at the end of the 12z GFS today:

Frozen Head lookout tower, this AM https://imgur.com/a/mibN5oc

EPS member 16 at day 14 FTW:

Welcome Blue Moon!

Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode.

Good question. I would like to think it means more aerosols of the kind that would lead to more snow for me, but given my experience with masiello, he probably means it in a strict academic sense that doesn't necessarily mean anything like it. I put it here since I’m not sure how he means it or what it would mean for us, but ya know, I gots to have hope, lol.

I think you and I got under the band o' doom with this one, lol. Pouring all AM here.

Man, I thought leaves peaked a couple of weeks ago, but at least here on Morgan County, I was wrong: https://imgur.com/a/r71NVoZ