Holston_River_Rambler

One of those times I wish the GFS had just run about 48 more hours: I think it would have been an epic fantasy storm.

A little Saturday surprise at the end of the 12z GFS today:

Frozen Head lookout tower, this AM https://imgur.com/a/mibN5oc

Ensembles past day 10 look pretty similar over NA this AM to what they have looked like the past few days. Really unique tilt to the ridge over the western US, at least as long as I've been looking at ensembles (not too many years). Kinda positively tilted. Using the CMC ensemble this AM since there weren't really any big changes to the GEFS or EPS.

Better than an endless SE ridge: I wholeheartedly embrace any and all upslope opportunities.

EPS member 16 at day 14 FTW:

GEFS and EPS look pretty similar out in magical la la Land this AM. According to the GEFS we've hit the point where an airmass that is above average in Canada can = below average here. GEFS: EPS: all over 280 hours out in early Dec. Looks similar to what we kept seeing for the past 2 years at that time range. We will see if this year is any different.

One thing I've been thinking about the past couple of days, goes back to the discussions of the wild fires and aerosols in the lower strat. Disregarding the whole talk of volcanic winter Masiello brought up a while back, I wonder if there will be some impact on MJO convection. I remember in 2018- 19 there was some talk of the SSW or split or whatever it was, forcing some cooler air towards the equator at in the 30mb and up range and that this might have helped fuel some of the convection over the dreaded Maritime Continent region. It was this post from Masiello that got me thinking about it: Convection over the Indian Ocean has been ok, the past couple of weeks and obviously tropical cyclones have also been healthy this year ,so not sure if there is a meaningful correlation.

Interesting. It seemed like the last couple of years everything tended to set up west of where the long range ensembles showed it. Those nice -EPOs would end up being over the Bering strait instead of AK. If the same holds this year, the overnight EPS would look similar to the GEFS, in terms of the sort of 500 mb pattern we might like. 0z EPS: 6z GEFS:

I think 2020 has beat the grump out of me. Smiling and redirecting punches is all I have left, lol. But I'm sure by Jan 28, if we are staring down a hr 240+ pattern change, I will find a grump recharge. Some of the usual suspects on wxtwitter suspects have already started the Ural high could = a SSW train. I can't really see anything that looks that promising, other than a displacement of cold and 50 mb heights over AK, the Bering Sea, and Siberia. So, pretty much what we saw last year with displacement that would ultimately end in a reconsolidated and stronger SPV. We will see how it goes this year.

Not sure I can add much to the Masiello discussion. Looks like tropical convection is going to be quiet for a while after the TCs in the Indian Ocean die off at least according to the 0z Euro. And I think that aligns with what y'all said above last night. 12z GFS is a little more optimistic about later development of TCs in that area, so I guess we'll see how that plays out. The normal trouble areas for us during winter look pretty quiet right now, but I'm not sure if current wavelengths translate tropical influence the same ways they will mid Dec - early March. Webb was also wondering whether or not a solar flare would interfere with any attempt at a -AO. -NAO this winter, but there no follow up on it yet, and it has been 10 days. Educational exchanges on that tweet thread too.

Welcome Blue Moon!

Hey, at least for once the Euro has underestimated the strength of cold push with a trough. Yea its a pretty quick swipe, but some decent fire weather looks likely early next week: First gif is a trend over the past 5 runs of the Euro's 850 mb temp anomaly and the second is a forecast of 2m temps.Monday morning through Wednesday PM. Sometimes, I guess, you have to reverse psychologizeify the models.

Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode.

Good question. I would like to think it means more aerosols of the kind that would lead to more snow for me, but given my experience with masiello, he probably means it in a strict academic sense that doesn't necessarily mean anything like it. I put it here since I’m not sure how he means it or what it would mean for us, but ya know, I gots to have hope, lol.

I think you and I got under the band o' doom with this one, lol. Pouring all AM here.

Man, I thought leaves peaked a couple of weeks ago, but at least here on Morgan County, I was wrong: https://imgur.com/a/r71NVoZ

Overnight the Euro went straight up trough east, ridge west day 10. Probably not a good sign though, since it is at day 10. Given the usual progression, will be a Rockies cut off in about 5 - 6 days on modeling.

Euro looked a little more zonal late in its run too. Anything for more fire place weather!

Not much of substance to add, but to note that the pattern seems to be shaping up to be sorta kinda the opposite of last year. We flipped around Halloween after a warm Oct. and then once we hit mid to late Dec, we went back to warm and didn't look back. Certainly could stay ridge-east/ trough-west throughout, but I also favor Carver's idea of an Ides of December change, even though how long it lasts is up for grabs. I want to revisit the post I used to start the wold speculation thread, and may try to do that later this PM when I have s little more time. Also, I live in Mossy Grove now, so any 2002 redos are unwelcome, lol.

Oh yeah, oh yeah, ya gotta believe: And there's at least one, count em one, EPS member, that shows at last 2 inches of snow in Middle TN, so Lock. It. In. Happy we're back to fantasy storm season

Hunter Ward has posted his winter forecast: https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2020/10/29/ashevillewx-2020-2021-winter-weather-outlook?fbclid=IwAR0UQmpWK_YXn9Klz_SPW011J7qohWOmmmt2-puoQWwI4rPiXiFfrr3mgpc Obviously for NC, but he does talk about the mts as well. Also, apparently the UKMET monthly model (from Ben Noll's website as seen on Ward's forecast) sees some opportunities for Abv. Average snowfall for western parts of our area. Dauntless Ray has his thoughts out too, again for western NC: http://asheweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf Seems like the overall thought is more opportunity for upslope, NW flow snow for favored areas in western NC, at least more opportunity than we have seen in recent years. Hopefully that can translate to more NW flow and maybe a clipper or two for us. While I was poking around on Ben Noll's twitter I found this: If there were to be more convection over the western Indian Ocean (8 - 1 MJO region) that would definitely be an interesting twist to La Nina. To be totally fair, equating 2021 to 1996 by looking at one RMM diagram and one model's seasonal forecast is vintage snow weenie and like trying to shove to pieces of a puzzle (thaty may not even be from the same puzzle) together because I JUST WANT THEM TO FIT/ WHY WON'T YOU FIT &^%$$^&*(&^%%$ But we must have hope so that when @mempho comes calling we can be reaped in the fullness of time.

My neighbor's rain gauge/ weather station went out, so no clue how much more rain we got here. Zeta was booking it though, so probably not as much as yesterday.