Holston_River_Rambler

Looks like the Euro, verbatim, is a little too far north for the Sun - Mon storm, except for SWVA and NE TN.

This all could be for nothing though... The true prognosticator of our weather fortunes cometh today... Time to do yo thang @BNAwx

Here's an interesting tidbit: WPC's 500 mb forecast for days 3 - 7, overlaid with an Ensemble mean (not sure if that is a major global blend mean, or what) and ensemble spread. The green lines are the WPCs forecast and the black are from the ENS Mean. The orange - red fill are the area of greatest spread. Never really looked at it much (mea culpa), but it is interesting to see how WPC uses the ensemble mean. I'm not saying this is better or worse than what we normally look at, but I find it interesting to see where the forecasters sharpen things, as opposed to the ENS mean, smoothing them out, especially the ridge over the Canadian Rockies being stronger.

Overnight EPS members:

I must have gotten under a nice band overnight. A healthy crust of snow (maybe 1/4 inch) and it is still pouring little flakes. But wait, there's more...

Good looking slug of moisture dropping in from OH: Looks like John will be right on the western edge, so me and The CumbCo folks are probably out. Fountainguy is probably gonna get hammered by it.

New GFS (version 16, supposedly operational at some point this month) has two storms as well. It suppresses the Euro's second one, but has another overrunning event right afterwards.

Not much here in MoCo, sadly. Got the higher winds John mentioned too. Looked like it was about tp pour the snow, but nothing.

We gotta balance out that 12z suite. Here is the new 12z UKMET (out to 168 hours now) with a cutter:

Here are some individual city charts: https://imgur.com/a/gD6QByv I put several in there and it would take up too much screen on here, so you'll have to click and look for the closest one for you.

@Stovepipe Here are what I have so far for the EPS (hrs 60 - 240) 500 mb 850 temp: MSLP: 24hr precip: snowfall mean: city charts should be out in a bout an hour in weathermodels individual members for the SE section:

Me too! Lol!

@Stovepipe I see some dollops along I-40.....

yeah. here's the full run.

Only though hour 204. I couldn't wait for it to load any longer

I think it's going to hit us with the big overrunning storm again, too.

Oh LAWD, what's the Euro about to do???

Updated UKMET today, at least on F5wx: Still not loaded yet, though.

Just a dusting on elevated surfaces here. I think I'm occasionally getting a little downslope off of Frozen Head, depending on the flow. Looks like there's been some lee side convergence? for areas in the valley to the lee of the Frozen Head mts.

Interesting end to the Euro. Looked really good, except for the energy over the Lakes. That was left over from and earlier storm. Unclear if it would end up suppressing the STJ energy or phasing with it, since there was even more energy dropping in through the Dakotas: Just looking at the precip map, not sure I've ever seem any map as pretty as what the OP Euro was showing at its end. Anticipation is the best part, after all, lol. This is the kind of stuff that is usually just on one EPS member.

Euro is going to be close to another really nice event towards the end of it's run, but not quite sure how it will evolve as the run plays out.

Dr. Schmaybe's naught bits (includes upslope event the next couple of days): Evolution on the Euro:

Dr. Schmaybe and the CMC showing a storm around 160 hours. Dr. Schmaybe: The Canuck: