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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's Friday, so happy hour is at noon(note we will pay for it on the 18 z run):
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much to add other than a tour de ensembles: The old 6z GEFS members were slinging Christmas presents: The new GEFS had some presents too, but not as many: EPS were looking better than they had in a few days: One thing that I found interesting was that the Euro Control was much more excited about the window: I included EPS member 42 on that gif too, since it was pretty enthusiastic for many in our forum. Some of you have mentioned that Euro seems like it overamps systems at this range, at least this season. If that's the case, given that the control is a lower resolution run, that it is a snowier run is notable? I think that's Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #34, right? I know y'all mentioned the CMC above, but since I've been posting on how it handles the energy, I did also want to mention that it has come around to the Euro and GFS in how it handles it. But wait, the NAM at hour 84, keeps that energy more consolidated further east??!!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    (Said in my best Tiny Tim voice) It's a Christmas Clipper!!! A happy hour miracle!!!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    But wait, we have the KMA on our side too, looking good. What could go wrong?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro : CMC: That's the difference between the two.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro OP is now the least amplified with the energy, but only the CMC brings that extra bit onshore with the rest of it. That seems to be the difference between a FROPA with maybe some Anafrontal precip or a bigger storm for some one east of the Mississippi.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET is coming in deeper with the energy than its 0z run, as it crosses the Rockies. It only goes out to 144, but will the Euro do the same? Ukie 0z: Ukie 12z: Here's the 12z CMC for comparison:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Took a run up to Frozen Head, above 3000 feet. A nice dusting and some rime ice: My house even had.... Wait for it... A slushy accumulation less than one inch on... ELEVATED SURFACES!!!!!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    All three have the main piece of energy, and have for a few days, just a question of how the interaction happens. Like y'all said, the CMC was a beut! A full on triple phaser (and about to be quadruple phaser over NE): The main piece drops across the Bitter Route range along the MT/ ID border. GFS: Euro: That little extra piece of energy that the CMC has coming across Northern CA, both the GFS and Euro snip it off over the Pac, and that piece seems to be the key to the CMC's big dog. Some of the new 6z GEFS members have low popping on the front: The EPS has a few too.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think one of the reason some of the longer range looks have seemed to go downhill a little (as I look at 500mb heights on the same GFS post hour 300), may have to do with a convection flare up, north of the equator, over the ever popular MJO regions 5 and 6: Compare to a few days ago:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gives our N. areas a nice overrunning event, but that piece of energy over Cabo just gets stuck. Two big highs drop down through hr 280:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Happy Hour GFS is about to create some wonky bizarro storm. Dropping energy over Cabo San Lucas after Christmas.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snow level with the last gasp band over E TN now is at around 900 feet above the radar beam, which is at about 1100 feet in Morristown. So around 2000 feet and falling. Cameras and reports from NC High country say it is rippin' over there. Maybe Bays Mt. and other areas around that elevation can get in a few flakes before it ends:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well the good news is, we’re not in any bulls eyes for the 24 or 25th yet, so it can’t trend to severe yet.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I may have to drive out to see the conjunction. My horizon in that direction is a little too high to see it. @nrgjeff I'm so happy with the night skies where I live now. Def will be getting more astronomy equipment when I get the $$.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking coolish in some spots, up against the eastern plateau. Glad I have a bunch of firewood for tomorrow.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much more than a curiosity, but the NAM, RAP, and HRRR show some snow trying to move up I-40 from Memphis towards Nashville tomorrow AM between 7 AM and 10 AM central time. The NAM is the least interested, but ti still has a brief window, and here is it's sounding: The Euro shows some mixed precip, but not much more. I'm betting too little too late, in terms of cold chasing moisture, but will be watching when I wake up tomorrow to see if anything like this happens. Here is the latest HRRR, for full snowy, and probably overdone, effect.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    This time weathermodels had all snow too.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just about cropped it without the date, but thought better of that, lol. It's from Tomer Burg's twitter, I just have it saved to my gifs, for those....special.... moments, when I need a pick-me-up. To be more serious about the question (cause I kinda feel bad now). After the last couple of years, (and the couple of marginal systems so far this year), I'll take the cold first, and roll the dice with the energy's track. We almost had a bona fide 1 - 3 or 2 - 4" clipper system on one run of the GFS last night. That would be nice, to have a clipper track across I-40, with no concern for precip type. I really feel like Huntsville, AL needs to not be worrying about precip type, for those of us outside of 2500 feet plus or extreme NE TN and SW VA, to also not worry about there being a problem. The 6z GFS was also close to something a little more spectacular around Christmas: (Compare that to what I posted above). On the surface it looks similar, but it is A LOT messier and uglier than the beautiful phase in 1993. Now that I have been looking at these H5 energy maps for a while, there almost something beautiful or atmospherically perfect about that energy phase in 1993. (many of you will respond, "well no duh," lol) But the gif in this post, if there was a messy phase of those 2 pieces of energy and it stayed south of us as it went negative, it would likely get the job done. If you look in the gifs posted by Griteater of the Euro Control (link in BNA's post above) there are some nice opportunities for energy to get south of us again, with the northern stream. suppling the cold.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is what we really want, always and forever:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's been so long, I don't remember any more.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is Sandy Claws a comin' to town? Is he bringin' his old Polar magic with him? 0z Dec. 25th:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just found a cool app that lets me take star pictures with my phone. Hopefully I will get better using it in time. Orion over MoCo:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just like that, as soon as the set has set for an hour, cleared overhead with the a little bit of the Milky Way visible.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think this may have been the convo. John was talking about earlier, for those who didn't see it: From Griteater: "Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies:
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