Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Yeah for sure. Although I remember a few ice storms right on the Holston River in west Kingsport. I’m hugging the 0z para Euro right now (posted on the SE forum in the mid - long term disco) -
People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em.
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Gonna have to duck out soon for a run into Knoxville, but here is the precip at hour 39 - 42: no precip type panels available for RGEM on trueweather
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Def digging a litte more over OK at hour at 18 - 21z Sat.
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It might be digging just a hair more and I mean a hair's breadth, lol.
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So far with the energy over the 4 corners, the RGEM looks very very similar to 6z.
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And if it ends up digging a little more and as Carver's said, has more consolidated Gulf Low that moves to the SE coast, some eastern areas could get in on the 700mb FGEN boundary they're getting excited about in the SE and MA forums (people who live near Roanoke and Blacksburg)
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Really pretty evolution on the NAM: Just a wee bit colder and that could be a memorable event, at least for me.
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That's more than I've done, lol.
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And I should add, unfortunately, east of BNA.
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Twill be a fine NAMing for N of 40 areas, I believe!
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Sounds like you know more than I do, so I'm happy to go with your analysis! I guess I'm getting so jaded about the whole thing that I default to "what could go wrong" mode, lol.
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I wonder what implications, if any, that kicker digging more would have on the evolution of this system. Not saying that will happen, but if the Sillin info is an indication, that kicker might end up digging more based on the Pac set up and that might allow more room for this one to amplify.
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6z Saturday at around 5PM vs 12z at the same time: Much more precip to the west in OK and Arkansas
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Gonna be better than the 6z I think, but not sure by how much.
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NAM's energy already looks better at 12z. (past 3 runs)
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That may mean it is digging more already, which I think would be good.
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Sillin is primarily posting for NE folks, but it will be interesting to see how/ if this correlates to the 12z runs here.
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Normally I would like several of the members being SE of us. This is a WAA precip slug, at least at first, and will likely verify N and NW, but I'm not sure if that precip in NC is due to the members seeing the system further south, or CAD. I suspect the later. I'm at 1300 feet on the plateau and am glad this one is coming through at night, lol. I still am not sure I like my chances.
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6z EPS members: Control Mean:
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Here are the GFS snow growth panels. I've never had access to these before, so I don't have experience using them, but thought I'd throw them up here in case anyone wanted to look: Here is the legend:
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Kuchera ratios aren't available for the 6 and 18z runs, but it's probably a good bet that the ratios will be less than 10:1.
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6z Euro:
