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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro FWIW. Not much difference between it and 12z, as far as I can tell at this resolution: Winter panels will probably need another 30 minutes before they're out
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    We’ll see if it happens or not, but based on the SREF H 5 panels, I suspect the NAMs will shift a bit west again.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry somewhere I can’t access the Ukie right now. Will try in a bit. Pivotal may have it tho.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was happy with it! Lol!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think you are in the right place. @BlunderStorm is up your way. I’m stoked to have another poster from that area!
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think you're kind of in the same boat as the rest of us, but with worse climo forcing the possibilities the wrong way. Not out of the game, but places N and NW have a better shot.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if there is a scenario where the trough could dig so much, that it could shift the precip axis from being N - S to more SSE - NNW? One thing I have consistently noticed in MRX's AFDs, is that they are very impressed with the forcing dynamics.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    FYI I will be driving a bit today and may not be able to post the Ukie or Euro.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like I missed the thread naming fun while I was on my bike, lol!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 3km NAM looks a little more reasonable with snow amounts, but actually tries it's darndest to pop a low in SE Alabama and run up towards Atlanta and Asheville and then Mountain City.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I lived in that eastern tip of KY where it meets VA and WV, I'd be feeling pretty good right now.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly surprised it didn't look a lot better for some areas: NAM sees Kuchera rations ~15:1 for some of that
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I reckon there's a good NAMing incoming, prepare your bodies, lol.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    The NAM has def. been trending slower and deeper with the energy and that trend is reflected in it's precip presentation. 5 run trend centered on 11 AM Thursday.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    BIGLY DISCLAIMER.... I am about to post a supreme gif. It is the SREF's MAX 3 hour snowfall. That means this map shows what the highest members of the already notoriously overdone SREF think could possibly be the max amount of snow to fall in a given 3 hour period. It should not be taken as having a hope in hell of verifying. So why post it? I I noticed something odd about the 3z run when I was looking through its winter panels. If I understand the SREF, it is sort of an ensemble for the NAM suite. So, with that in mind: Notice the normal front sweeps through at first, with a chance of rain changing to snow. Ok, yeah, you say, we get that. What I found interesting in this graphic was that apparently some of the SREF members have the secondary low popping waaayyyyy south and snowing in MS and AL. Not really looking at its overblown snow amounts, that it has precip so far south, at least to me, indicates that there is some room for such a scenario. Is it likely, no, absolutely not. But, to paraphrase an AFD I read a few weeks ago, there is a non zero chance, lol. The past two runs of the SREF have seen something that makes them think that is a possibility. I looked at the plumes and it looks like it is only the ARP that is seeing this possibility. There's still some spread in how the NAM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and WRF-ARW2 how the bottom of the trough as it swings through TX. So could be a big nothing burger, or something to watch.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the winter precip. panels, hot off the press:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it pops a low right over Johnson City: Trying to make a trend gif, but weathermodels is too unwieldy for me to do that. There has definitely been a west and more separation between the N low and this low, in terms of MSLP, over the past 5 runs.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro improved a bit. 0z: 6z: I don't have Kuchera ratios for the 6z, but suspect it would look a little better from TRI and points N and E.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Old 6z GEFS version mean looks tasty: New 6z GEFS version, more dispersed:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Long range Euro pops a Miller B, this time with a little ore cold air. Different models have been looking at that time frame for a while. Will be interesting to see if that is a legit storm window. Verbatim, some of you middle and west TN would like it, some, schmaybe not.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    The big difference that I see (and it isn't necessarily a deal breaker) is that the anafrontal system from last Dec. had a more SW - NE orientation and this one is more meridional. Last year's: (Bolded in case it messes with anyone to see this map, lol)
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro pops the leeside low a touch further south than 12z. 999 mb just south or Roanoke, near the NC border.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Neighbor had a telescope and I got to see ye olden conjunction, woot woot! It was able to resolve the rings of Saturn and some of Jupiter's moons!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the NAM sounding for the second piece of energy mentioned above (using it because I don't have RGEM soundings out that far): Moisture is limited to below 700 mb, but the DGZ is saturated from 875 mb - 825 mb.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks kinda like the GFS on the low riding the front scenario, but is really keying in on the second piece of energy dropping in for some extra umphh. That has the potential to overperform on snow showers, since it adds life to the normal orographic lift with the CAA.
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