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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I’m thinking we might get some more later on.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Mixing with snow again here. Probably rate driven.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    We've changed over to rain here. Kind of wondering if we can get the mythical change over back to snow after the sun sets, if there is still precip. Not sure I've ever seen it, but it is so marginal here, we could.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I suspect this may also be one of those rare times where we get help from an SWly upslope flow in the eastern valley, since all this is coming from that direction. Everyone except John... But he might even get some leeside convergence from the lee of the flow on the backside of the Frozen Head mts/ Cross mt. This event reminds me of a clipper from the olden days (not in terms of the set up or synoptics) but just in the "weather on the ground" (i.e. if I didn't know anything about the set up and just looked out the window)
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Eric Webb was saying on southernwx yesterday that models have a hard time with WAA precip shields on the northern fringe. Looks like he was right. RGEM was not so good this time. Maybe RGEM does better with dynamic systems (i.e. dynamic H5 vorts) and the NAMs do better with this WAA stuff?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    While certainly not true fatties, I think @Stovepipe that we can call these, with little doubt, healthy chonkers:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Light to moderate snow here now. Some banding showing up over Middle TN. Hopefully some of the precip over N. Alabama and the southern plateau can survive:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I did say it was a weenie run....
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh wait, never mind, lol
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I missed something @PowellVolz
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting pattern on the Ensembles in the long range: EPS: GEFS: GEPS: At first glance it doesn't look that great. Central Pac ridge and the main trough over the Pacific NW. But here are the things that make it interesting to me. 1) Always good to have something that doesn't look too great at day 10+. Guaranteed changes and that has seemed especially true this year. The danger in this one, is that there could end up being more SE ridge and that would herald the TN Valley's patented "Frikin' Floodin' February" 2) NAO is keeping that SE ridge at bay. This is a smoothed mean of a dynamically moving atmosphere and that block could verify stronger or in a diff location. Obviously the danger is that it verifies more east based, or links up with a SE ridge 3) The last time we had a positive result from a SSW, it took a month (mid Feb - March 2018). The UK got the fabled (and much canvased on wxtwitter) "Beast from the East" in a couple of weeks though and seeing the trougihng over the UK on the ensembles makes me wonder and, if Im honest, hope, that we still haven't seen all the fallout from the SSW (major or not) as it's effects percolate down through the atmosphere. Speaking of the strat, looks like the Euro and GFS want to reconsolidate it at 10mb in their long range, but lower down, all the residues of the SSW have to go somewhere and are still oozing down: GEFS Euro (EPS isn't available to me): MJO looks CODish, in real time. A little bit of convection in a lot of places n. of the equator, but schmaybe favoring the eastern Indian Ocean As Carver's has pointed out the RMM diagrams are looking better. The Euro, for example, wants to skip the warmer phases altogether and just run back to the western Pac. GEFS does have some members that want to do the warm tour, but others members just look lost: TL;DR. It will be interesting to see what all this evolves to come verification time.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dusting here this AM and light snow.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Come on NAM, bring it home for Morgan County:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Jed33 Thanks for the heads up on that disco. Already found something new to me: http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/jbpages/M361/BUFKITlabs/Bourgouin/Bourgouin2000.pdf
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    And if we just play it conservatively and use the CMC's depiction of the jet, I would say it yields a trough passage and front, with the potential for a wave to ride it. biggest problem there looks like the Pac jet keeps the trough from amplifying.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since there is no college football now, might as well watch the GFS's antics: Here's the old FV3 we all know and love! Just having some fun with this one, please don't take it too seriously, it is the GFS after all. New GFS has a (seemingly) suppressed system around this time frame though.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    12 RGEM was a still about where it was overnight, but with a little more umph to it:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z NAMs like y'all out that way too. Not a huge difference from overnight runs, so no pics for now.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still getting some random flurries here this AM
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    @AMZ8990
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something else to keep an eye on, (nothing to get excited about, but interesting). GFS warms the strat again from hour 300 onward: Some renewed warming on the 0z Euro out to hr 240 too:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think there is room for improvement for folks further N and E in TN, depending on how it interacts with the two pieces of energy I've circled: Those are the two that really screw with it and wring and stretch it out. Without those two, you might have another bowling ball situation.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope I don't jinx you @AMZ8990 but hopefully this is one for you.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    And the 12z Euro:
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