Holston_River_Rambler

This is the third of these SSW I've watched and I have to say, if this one doesn't do much, it will be the last one I care about. I've seen three now. the first one changed up the pattern, but it was too late in the year. The second one just reinforced a La Nina type pattern by enhancing Maritime Continent convection. This looked like it would be the big kahuna; percolating down to reinforce an -NAO, it also happened during prime climo. Now, I get it, lots of people have always said these SSW aren't much to care about. But I like to watch and figure things out on my own before I come to a conclusion, because you can't explain the hows and the whys of a decision, IMO, unless you have rolled it around in your own mind a few times. One way or the other, this will be the last one I need to watch. I've watched how Isotherm, griteater, Judah Cohen, Bastardi, Amy Butler, Simon Lee, Daniela Domeisen, as well as many people on this board, use and abuse these events and I think I have a feel for how they work, or at least enough of a feel for using them as a hobbyist. So, if this one doesn't do much for MBY, or really any of our back yards, I'm not sure they're worth looking at anymore. If we have this "grand conjunction" of a SSW and -NAO in prime climo during an el Nino, I might watch it again, but otherwise, this one has until early Feb to show something. I took a month during the "good" event in 2018 and I'll give this one that long. This is my first real -NAO as someone who posts on these boards, so that teleconnection has quite a bit more leeway, in terms of how I think it helps or hurts, but so far it seems kinda meh. Maybe the pattern would be worse without it, but even the MA and the normal CAD areas can't get a Miller B that warm noses east TN. I still stand by what I posted s couple of days ago, for now. And I agree with John, that you can't really care much about what the GFS says past a few days out. But, I despise seeing the "Flood in February" pattern start to show up. I'm over it. I think I'd rather have a severe pattern at this point than what the 0z ensembles are showing: QPF firehose signal starting to show up: GEFS CMC enselbles EPS:

NAM snowicane:

F5. Not sure what it says about me, but I pay $15.00 per month during the winter for the UKMET precip, lol. https://www.f5wx.com/ I think it is geared more toward severe weather folks.

Nice slider on the euro too at a later time. Can’t post pics right now.

To build on fountain's post, man the Ukie looked pretty in th digital snow dept:

Yeah I’m thinking we might get some more later on.

Mixing with snow again here. Probably rate driven.

We've changed over to rain here. Kind of wondering if we can get the mythical change over back to snow after the sun sets, if there is still precip. Not sure I've ever seen it, but it is so marginal here, we could.

I suspect this may also be one of those rare times where we get help from an SWly upslope flow in the eastern valley, since all this is coming from that direction. Everyone except John... But he might even get some leeside convergence from the lee of the flow on the backside of the Frozen Head mts/ Cross mt. This event reminds me of a clipper from the olden days (not in terms of the set up or synoptics) but just in the "weather on the ground" (i.e. if I didn't know anything about the set up and just looked out the window)

Eric Webb was saying on southernwx yesterday that models have a hard time with WAA precip shields on the northern fringe. Looks like he was right. RGEM was not so good this time. Maybe RGEM does better with dynamic systems (i.e. dynamic H5 vorts) and the NAMs do better with this WAA stuff?

While certainly not true fatties, I think @Stovepipe that we can call these, with little doubt, healthy chonkers:

Light to moderate snow here now. Some banding showing up over Middle TN. Hopefully some of the precip over N. Alabama and the southern plateau can survive:

I did say it was a weenie run....

Oh wait, never mind, lol

I think I missed something @PowellVolz

Interesting pattern on the Ensembles in the long range: EPS: GEFS: GEPS: At first glance it doesn't look that great. Central Pac ridge and the main trough over the Pacific NW. But here are the things that make it interesting to me. 1) Always good to have something that doesn't look too great at day 10+. Guaranteed changes and that has seemed especially true this year. The danger in this one, is that there could end up being more SE ridge and that would herald the TN Valley's patented "Frikin' Floodin' February" 2) NAO is keeping that SE ridge at bay. This is a smoothed mean of a dynamically moving atmosphere and that block could verify stronger or in a diff location. Obviously the danger is that it verifies more east based, or links up with a SE ridge 3) The last time we had a positive result from a SSW, it took a month (mid Feb - March 2018). The UK got the fabled (and much canvased on wxtwitter) "Beast from the East" in a couple of weeks though and seeing the trougihng over the UK on the ensembles makes me wonder and, if Im honest, hope, that we still haven't seen all the fallout from the SSW (major or not) as it's effects percolate down through the atmosphere. Speaking of the strat, looks like the Euro and GFS want to reconsolidate it at 10mb in their long range, but lower down, all the residues of the SSW have to go somewhere and are still oozing down: GEFS Euro (EPS isn't available to me): MJO looks CODish, in real time. A little bit of convection in a lot of places n. of the equator, but schmaybe favoring the eastern Indian Ocean As Carver's has pointed out the RMM diagrams are looking better. The Euro, for example, wants to skip the warmer phases altogether and just run back to the western Pac. GEFS does have some members that want to do the warm tour, but others members just look lost: TL;DR. It will be interesting to see what all this evolves to come verification time.

Dusting here this AM and light snow.

Come on NAM, bring it home for Morgan County:

@Jed33 Thanks for the heads up on that disco. Already found something new to me: http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/jbpages/M361/BUFKITlabs/Bourgouin/Bourgouin2000.pdf

6z Euro:

And if we just play it conservatively and use the CMC's depiction of the jet, I would say it yields a trough passage and front, with the potential for a wave to ride it. biggest problem there looks like the Pac jet keeps the trough from amplifying.

Since there is no college football now, might as well watch the GFS's antics: Here's the old FV3 we all know and love! Just having some fun with this one, please don't take it too seriously, it is the GFS after all. New GFS has a (seemingly) suppressed system around this time frame though.

12 RGEM was a still about where it was overnight, but with a little more umph to it:

12z NAMs like y'all out that way too. Not a huge difference from overnight runs, so no pics for now.

Still getting some random flurries here this AM