Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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I should have those in about an hour or so and will post when they come in. -
The energy depiction looks similar and (I think?) if the energy verifies a tad stronger and digs just a bit, the Euro would look more like the GFS:
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Looks like the 6z Euro came north with the precip. for superbowl Sunday. Still not like the GFS, but a small step for it.
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18z Para and GFS have the 12 - 14th storm window again.
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Apparently the para gFS has been doing well the past week or so: stolen from the MA forum
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Not sure, but it sounds like some places at elevation def. have. The EPS looks more like the CMC or the new para GFS, at least to me, so it would be less suppressed and closer to the 12th than the 14th:
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That being said, they just all handle that giant vort. lobe so differently. It's actually kind of surprising, when you look at it that way, that they have a similar solution at the surface.
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Everything seems to like that window between the 12th and the 14th, at least for now. Hopefully the Euro is overamping some storm somewhere that is messing with the flow. If you look at the GFS, CMC, and Euro, they look remarkably similar for such a lead.
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I may have been looking at it the wrong way, but that is why I use it too and it just seems like it hasn't always been great about doing that this season.
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Yeah, F5wx says it is a new 10km resolution version. I'm just not sure why or if other sites have or will start using the new one. Hopefully it is better than the Ukie we have had so far this winter. I was actually thinking about cancelling F5 subscription since I only use it for the UKMET precip. maps and it hasn't had a hot hand very often if at all this winter.
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If we woof loud enough, @Stovepipe will come give it back.
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What I'm trying to say is that I think the UKMET has just been upgraded to a new version (higher resolution) and I think only F5 has that version so far.
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Just trying to find data on how the new UKMET is different, and saw there is apparently a UKMET ensemble: MOGREPS. Wonder if any service has that one, lol? 36 members. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/ensemble-forecasting/mogreps
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As far as I can tell, no one else has the new Ukie yet except F5wx, or they are all running it out to only 144 hours. I'll look to see if there are any differences at 12z. But F5 has had some problems getting the new UK version's data to load, so some of the panels weren't available yesterday. I do think it seemed less cold that the old Ukie on Pivotal.
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Here's the run to tun change on it on the Euro for the past 4 runs (for those wondering what we're talking about with the TPV): When it was depicted rounder and further east, the cold could sink south, but if it gets stretched out across the N. border, that cuts off the cold.
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I think the big TPV chunk over southern Canada or the northern US (depending on the model/ run/ time stamp) is just giving models fits. It's like having a big storm trying to clear the east coast and trying to see how it changes the flow, except it is on a continental level. And this comment is aimed more after the storm Carver's is talking about above, say in the days 5 - 10 time range.
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As John mentioned earlier the UKMET has been pretty bad this year, at least in terms the details over CONUS. Here is the overnight new UKMET, hopefully it improves the model's performance:
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Where are you getting the Para from Carvers? I've been trying to look at it since yesterday. Pivotal and weathermodels haven't updated. Does weather bell have it? I was kinda hoping NCEP had cut off data since they might be about to make it the OP GFS
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Look how far south it has snow with the last wave (4) that was coming onshore in CA at the end of its run: a 1056 with all that energy plowing into and beneath it.
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Here are all three waves on the Euro:
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I'd like to see just what wacky solution the Euro would throw out after the end of its run with all this energy:
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The Euro has yet another wave coming onshore in CA towards the end of its run. That one would have to run under the TPV piece that it says will be over Minn. at that time.
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Be interesting to see how the EPS members deal with both waves.
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If not amplify, at least get the mid level flow out of the SW.
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I think the Euro will make this next one a slider. The TPV over Manitoba should allow this second wave to amplify. But, I'm not watching the temps as much, so maybe it ends up being too warm, based on what y'all are saying.
