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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully one of us on the plateau or E TN can luck out and get under one of the bands about to swing through:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Mossy Grove: One picture though, reminded me of something. This one is aimed right at the heart of the Frozen Head mts, towards John:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX for SW VA: Another interesting thing to watch for this afteroon will be the slight chance for thunder snow; this is only for our southwest VA counties though. The SPC has this area under general thunder during the afternoon due to the steep low-to mid-level lapse rates and 100 J/kg SBCAPE that will be in place. This may allow for enough updraft buoyancy to generate a lighting discharge. Though the chances are slim it isn`t out of the question.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just short of a dusting here in MoCo.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw a 56dbz return at one point NE of a Nashville. Not sure if there was some ground clutter involved in it.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like there is almost a line starting to develop in NW TN: That may be what the models were picking up earlier on for late this evening into overnight.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still virga here. This weather makes me really nostalgic for May on the CO Plateau. Very similar to may days above 8000 feet on Bluebell Knoll, Bryce Canyon, and at the North Rim of the Grand Canyon in mid - late May
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some mPING reports showing snow just north of Cookeville and in the southern plateau
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to get some feeder band action over middle TN as the eye moves towards St Louis:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    No clue what MUCIN is, but I have it, so I'm giphin' it:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Right under the good lapse rates too. Some kind of CAPE there as well: No clue what it means, but it's gotta be good for convection, maybe??
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here come the lapse rates:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wish I had time to get to the Frozen Head lookout tower this AM. There are some nice convective clouds moving overhead here, but can't really get a good picture from my location. I looked out the window and my first thought was wow, thunderstorm type clouds. Their tops are not very high, but have that convective look.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Feeder bands.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on the radar depiction i may have mixed with some snow when the rates were up (I was still asleep ), but mostly light rain and 35 now. Looks like Hi res is showing the first of the heavier bands trying to roll through around 6PM my time this PM. Hopefully I'll see something then.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I went for it. Jan 2021 Squallicane
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's to hope:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    His tweet was aimed more at the midwest, but I suspect some of that applies in the TN valley too.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm getting a little more interested in the second piece of energy (now at the end of the NAM run): It almost has that "traditional" clipper look to it: Upper/ mid Mississippi valley to TN valley. RGEM is less aggressive with precip. development: But, @John1122 I seem to remember you saying that models sometimes have a hard time with these systems. Honestly, I haven't been looking at models long enough to know how these things can play out. (seems like it's been since I was in highschool (late 90s) since we had one)
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    For you SREF freaks (yeah I'm talking to you!) who've always wanted to see that one member: ARW core: NBM core: The bottom larger images are the control for each run (right) and mean (left)
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie, RGEM, NAMs all show some squally type snow showers: The 6z NAM 3km almost has a squall line moving though east TN overnight Friday into Saturday. I will be interested to see if radar looks anything like this when it happens: I found one band with a 37 dbz return. Look at the forcing into the DGZ: Sorry Stovepipe, I couldn't resist:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got a new toy: GFS Snow growth panels for the weekend system. I decided to try true weather, since I think they used to have good Ukie precip panels (not as good as what I remembered), data is updated quickly, and they have a good interface. It has some other fun stuff too, just now starting to play around with.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ooohhh, just saw on southernwx that there is a parallel Euro and I have access to it (not many parameters though): Looks like it has a slightly colder solution than the current OP.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hey, speaking of snow showers, 6z Euro: I mean it isn't a whopper, but it is widespread.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah me too. Probably some really good lapse rates. On a more positive note, just evaluating my own response to the digital snows, I feel like this isn't the first time this season I've seen things look a little bleaker in the long range only to look better as things get closer in time.
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