Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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18z Euro coming in now. I think it is going to be pretty similar to 12z, maybe a smidge (and I mean little smidge) flatter with the energy, but not much.
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Sorry about the last one, that was 12z GEFS by mistake. Here are 18z members:
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And there’s still energy in the SW that’s gonna run that boundary lol -
I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol
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Twitter convo about the storm re: initialization error and RAOB network:
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The supposedly new version of the Ukie. I can't really tell if it is much different from what I posted earlier:
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For the connoisseur of snow maps, I just saw the weatherbell maps on southernwx and they look better than my weathermodels map. If you're into that sort of thing, like, me, lol.
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I suck at them though. Almost always a given if I anticipate X change in a model, it will go the other way.
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Oh noooo PBP's are my fav. I just threw that up for reference
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I nominate @Stovepipe with the caveat that he has to start it with an epic photoshop involving Johnny Cash, the Doof Warrior from Mad Max, and the birthday cake dog. On second thought that one may need to be saved for later, lol.
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Euro just started up on TrueWeather
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@Carvers Gap all I have is pivotal too, weathermodels doesn't have snow totals for the para and true weather doesn't have it at all:
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You want the whole run, or a specific time frame?
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Looks like the UKMET is coming north a bit for the Sunday system (the one that goes out to hr 144 on pivotal). 0z on the left and 12z on the right: The other one I post won't be finished running for a bit, but I will post that one too later, just to see if the newer UKMET is different.
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I think the RGEM did get a little closer with the energy. Not saying it will work out this time, but the RGEM didn't do so hot with the overrunning, WAA precip last time. It does seem to do better with its depictions of energy though, so who knows. It is gradually coming north (last 4 runs):
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As usual, I like to play "Guess the NAM run with the SREF." Looks like the 12z NAM may be closer to the GFS.
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@TellicoWx Here are the 6z EPS members through hour 84
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I should have those in about an hour or so and will post when they come in.
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The energy depiction looks similar and (I think?) if the energy verifies a tad stronger and digs just a bit, the Euro would look more like the GFS:
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Looks like the 6z Euro came north with the precip. for superbowl Sunday. Still not like the GFS, but a small step for it.
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18z Para and GFS have the 12 - 14th storm window again.
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Apparently the para gFS has been doing well the past week or so: stolen from the MA forum
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Not sure, but it sounds like some places at elevation def. have. The EPS looks more like the CMC or the new para GFS, at least to me, so it would be less suppressed and closer to the 12th than the 14th:
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That being said, they just all handle that giant vort. lobe so differently. It's actually kind of surprising, when you look at it that way, that they have a similar solution at the surface.
