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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gives our N. areas a nice overrunning event, but that piece of energy over Cabo just gets stuck. Two big highs drop down through hr 280:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Happy Hour GFS is about to create some wonky bizarro storm. Dropping energy over Cabo San Lucas after Christmas.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snow level with the last gasp band over E TN now is at around 900 feet above the radar beam, which is at about 1100 feet in Morristown. So around 2000 feet and falling. Cameras and reports from NC High country say it is rippin' over there. Maybe Bays Mt. and other areas around that elevation can get in a few flakes before it ends:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well the good news is, we’re not in any bulls eyes for the 24 or 25th yet, so it can’t trend to severe yet.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I may have to drive out to see the conjunction. My horizon in that direction is a little too high to see it. @nrgjeff I'm so happy with the night skies where I live now. Def will be getting more astronomy equipment when I get the $$.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking coolish in some spots, up against the eastern plateau. Glad I have a bunch of firewood for tomorrow.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much more than a curiosity, but the NAM, RAP, and HRRR show some snow trying to move up I-40 from Memphis towards Nashville tomorrow AM between 7 AM and 10 AM central time. The NAM is the least interested, but ti still has a brief window, and here is it's sounding: The Euro shows some mixed precip, but not much more. I'm betting too little too late, in terms of cold chasing moisture, but will be watching when I wake up tomorrow to see if anything like this happens. Here is the latest HRRR, for full snowy, and probably overdone, effect.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    This time weathermodels had all snow too.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just about cropped it without the date, but thought better of that, lol. It's from Tomer Burg's twitter, I just have it saved to my gifs, for those....special.... moments, when I need a pick-me-up. To be more serious about the question (cause I kinda feel bad now). After the last couple of years, (and the couple of marginal systems so far this year), I'll take the cold first, and roll the dice with the energy's track. We almost had a bona fide 1 - 3 or 2 - 4" clipper system on one run of the GFS last night. That would be nice, to have a clipper track across I-40, with no concern for precip type. I really feel like Huntsville, AL needs to not be worrying about precip type, for those of us outside of 2500 feet plus or extreme NE TN and SW VA, to also not worry about there being a problem. The 6z GFS was also close to something a little more spectacular around Christmas: (Compare that to what I posted above). On the surface it looks similar, but it is A LOT messier and uglier than the beautiful phase in 1993. Now that I have been looking at these H5 energy maps for a while, there almost something beautiful or atmospherically perfect about that energy phase in 1993. (many of you will respond, "well no duh," lol) But the gif in this post, if there was a messy phase of those 2 pieces of energy and it stayed south of us as it went negative, it would likely get the job done. If you look in the gifs posted by Griteater of the Euro Control (link in BNA's post above) there are some nice opportunities for energy to get south of us again, with the northern stream. suppling the cold.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is what we really want, always and forever:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's been so long, I don't remember any more.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is Sandy Claws a comin' to town? Is he bringin' his old Polar magic with him? 0z Dec. 25th:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just found a cool app that lets me take star pictures with my phone. Hopefully I will get better using it in time. Orion over MoCo:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just like that, as soon as the set has set for an hour, cleared overhead with the a little bit of the Milky Way visible.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think this may have been the convo. John was talking about earlier, for those who didn't see it: From Griteater: "Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I would have liked to have seen where the OP went after 240: N. stream swinging a trough through, followed by a Yukon HP, almost dropping down in sync with the s/w left behind in the SW. Looks like a cross polar flow too. And the N. Stream wave could act as a 50/50
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Member 47 was fun for y'all up that way too!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same over here on Frozen Head. Tried to get a pic but the clouds only cleared out for a little while. Hopefully I can get one tomorrow.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    What do y'all think of the NAM's depiction of ice in Sequatchie county? : Looks like it wants to bank some low level cold air up against both sides of the Sequatchie Valley. I'm not really interested in chasing ice, for ice's sake, seems waaay too dangerous. But from a TN Valley microclimate standpoint, I'm curious. The Icemeisters over in the Carolinas seem to put a lot of stock in the NAM's thermal profiles, but I'm not sure if the same thing would work out over here?
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's hoping!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    RAP weenie run for the plateau:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Now the next great question for today. Do we see the sun before nightfall? I'm pessimistic about my chances:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to get some wet snow mixing in here. I can look up to a nearby mountain and see the snow line at around 1800 feet.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    My temp has dropped 5 degrees in the lats hour. 42 -- 37. Maybe I can get a flake or two, lol.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    With that last gasp batch of precip over middle TN though it looks like the snow level is only about 500 feet. looks like @Kentucky was right in the middle of the early changeover that bearman mentioned. Hopefully he got some accumulations out of it.
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