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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 3km NAM looks a little more reasonable with snow amounts, but actually tries it's darndest to pop a low in SE Alabama and run up towards Atlanta and Asheville and then Mountain City.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I lived in that eastern tip of KY where it meets VA and WV, I'd be feeling pretty good right now.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly surprised it didn't look a lot better for some areas: NAM sees Kuchera rations ~15:1 for some of that
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I reckon there's a good NAMing incoming, prepare your bodies, lol.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    The NAM has def. been trending slower and deeper with the energy and that trend is reflected in it's precip presentation. 5 run trend centered on 11 AM Thursday.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    BIGLY DISCLAIMER.... I am about to post a supreme gif. It is the SREF's MAX 3 hour snowfall. That means this map shows what the highest members of the already notoriously overdone SREF think could possibly be the max amount of snow to fall in a given 3 hour period. It should not be taken as having a hope in hell of verifying. So why post it? I I noticed something odd about the 3z run when I was looking through its winter panels. If I understand the SREF, it is sort of an ensemble for the NAM suite. So, with that in mind: Notice the normal front sweeps through at first, with a chance of rain changing to snow. Ok, yeah, you say, we get that. What I found interesting in this graphic was that apparently some of the SREF members have the secondary low popping waaayyyyy south and snowing in MS and AL. Not really looking at its overblown snow amounts, that it has precip so far south, at least to me, indicates that there is some room for such a scenario. Is it likely, no, absolutely not. But, to paraphrase an AFD I read a few weeks ago, there is a non zero chance, lol. The past two runs of the SREF have seen something that makes them think that is a possibility. I looked at the plumes and it looks like it is only the ARP that is seeing this possibility. There's still some spread in how the NAM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and WRF-ARW2 how the bottom of the trough as it swings through TX. So could be a big nothing burger, or something to watch.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the winter precip. panels, hot off the press:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it pops a low right over Johnson City: Trying to make a trend gif, but weathermodels is too unwieldy for me to do that. There has definitely been a west and more separation between the N low and this low, in terms of MSLP, over the past 5 runs.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro improved a bit. 0z: 6z: I don't have Kuchera ratios for the 6z, but suspect it would look a little better from TRI and points N and E.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Old 6z GEFS version mean looks tasty: New 6z GEFS version, more dispersed:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Long range Euro pops a Miller B, this time with a little ore cold air. Different models have been looking at that time frame for a while. Will be interesting to see if that is a legit storm window. Verbatim, some of you middle and west TN would like it, some, schmaybe not.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    The big difference that I see (and it isn't necessarily a deal breaker) is that the anafrontal system from last Dec. had a more SW - NE orientation and this one is more meridional. Last year's: (Bolded in case it messes with anyone to see this map, lol)
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro pops the leeside low a touch further south than 12z. 999 mb just south or Roanoke, near the NC border.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Neighbor had a telescope and I got to see ye olden conjunction, woot woot! It was able to resolve the rings of Saturn and some of Jupiter's moons!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the NAM sounding for the second piece of energy mentioned above (using it because I don't have RGEM soundings out that far): Moisture is limited to below 700 mb, but the DGZ is saturated from 875 mb - 825 mb.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks kinda like the GFS on the low riding the front scenario, but is really keying in on the second piece of energy dropping in for some extra umphh. That has the potential to overperform on snow showers, since it adds life to the normal orographic lift with the CAA.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Plateau sunset: You can hear the wind aloft. Something fun must be going on higher up. I took a short time lapse of the clouds rolling. You can actually see this cloud formation on the local GOES 16 imagery, at the bottom of the Frozen Head mts. Really, just a vividly blue sky, after the drear of late.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM NAMed you @BlunderStorm Not great for the rest of us in East TN, but that is the best the NAM has looked so far: (past 3 runs trend):
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are our 2 main pieces of energy: I think the piece to the north is the most important one for us, since it is the piece that rounds the bottom of the trough that the initial piece carves out.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    A decent bump in the presentation of the 12 hr SREF snow mean. Curious to see if the NAM comes in a bit better this time.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're doing this GEFS, whether you like it or not. SREF H5 is digging the trough more than 9z: 15z 9z:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS tries to keep some leeside hope alive:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even if this storm fails, we should keep this open as the GEFS Dandridge Dollop thread. Model specific banter at it's finest!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the blockier patterns I've seen showing up at the end of the Euro OP: not sure if it would get the job done for us, in that specific set up, but cool to see the blocking.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Awesome satellite imagery early this AM that shows some of the local microclimates. What especially stands out to me are the WAA areas in the eastern Valley and the areas up against that N. plateau that normally get a little CADing in in Miller B type systems: probably a lot more to learn from a satellite image like this.
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