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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah the 12z Euro was nice for many parts of the state:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know what algorithm F5 weather uses for precip, but it looks promising:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like I'm 0 - 2 today on predicting the GFS. But, still nice to see big highs trying to drop down consistently.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe this time it will work out better, lol. Looks like the GFS is going for a big storm toward the end of it's run.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure I've ever seen something like the CMC's depiction of the shortwaves: the block is forcing energy over WY to go into UT
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    That ended poorly, lol.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's the only way to go!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the GFS is going to make an attempt on the second one too. Maybe for more areas.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kuchera ratios drop 19 on SW VA. A Boone to Wytheville special
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Def. some decent hits among the overnight EPS members (all 50 as a gif):
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Para GFS opens up the arctic gates:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Parallel GFS gave some areas a decent storm around hr 200: I mention it, because it looks like the Euro will have a similar result.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was talking about both. That Ukie run first got my attention for theTuesday deal (more from an interest in that oddball synoptic evolution) and interest in the Jan 8 - 9 for it's bowling ball potential.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Great pass for the energy, but nary a snowflake outside of I'd say 3000'
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah the first bit is more of academic interest, in that I don't foresee it doing much (although you never know). That next one looks bulky.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm kind of interested in the energy diving in behind it. It's not really wound up, but the block scoots it such a way as to kinda sorta schmaybe have a negative lean...
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has that system too and gets 4 - 6 on Roan. The set up is interesting with the energy diving in from the NW:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie drops 6 - 9" on Roan Mt.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    That first oddball system the Ukie shows, is actually within NAM range and it has some precip too.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET has it's own little idea for next week:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    This SSW is a weird one (granted I've only followed 3 now, but it is different from the three I've seen). It's almost like we took last years super strong SPV and 2021 said, yeah.......that was a bad year, let's reverse that and see what happens Last year:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really think the models are just now starting to seen whatever the shake out is going to be from the SSW. My take: This -NAO is a product of something else, related to the cause of the SSW or not. We rain and maybe mix above 3000' and snow above 5000' and basically Nino in terms of how the weather seems until mid month. SSW really sinks the AO, screws with the Urals high/ Mongolian Death HPs and jet extension, and cold finally starts to build in Canada. Then a trough dumps west first and cold bleeds east. Maybe we severe too, once or twice. Better pattern then through Valentine's day, maybe a little later. After that, do we revert to this weird base state with blocking developing in a Nina? Is there a second SSW in late Feb? (It has happened) Or do we TNI and severe? AM ensembles:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    We slosh? Until the mythical slosh commences, I'm just going to pretend I live in Redding CA for the next 10 - 15 days. Weather isn't much different.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the EPS member progression from days 10 - 15 are so nice. Here are some samples: There were more too and even some of the misses were not rainers, but suppressed storms. There were some rainers in there too. None of these solutions is likely "The" solution, but at least some hint at what could be possible if the block develops nicely.
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