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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like a smidge more confluence over NE on the 18z Euro an I mean a smidge. It is out to 66 hours so far.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS: 18z GFS:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's what I'm seeing at COD's website. \ I wasn't around for the 12z GFS, but to me that seems to be a step in the right direction.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO this won't be a full cave to the Euro, but a decent step in that direction, just long enough for the 0z Euro to come in more like the 12z GFS, lol.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    At hour 63 it is almost a state further south and faster than 12z, at least based on the H5 vorts on COD's website
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM says no gulf lows for you:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    A few more 15z SREF members see snow in Crossville than at 9z. I guess that's something.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    The way this storm has bounced, the 6z RGEM Saturday is going to run the GFS's attempted winning field goal back for a touchdown.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Didn't the CMC try to ice our kicker earlier today?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS members at hr 120:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS low locations: In meetings this AM, did I miss all the fun, lol?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at the 850s, it is allowing for a little better entrenchment of the cold air before the system and the surface low is a few millibars weaker at hour 90 of the 6z Euro.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure it will mean much in the long run, but the 6z Euro is a little bit more positively tilted, a little bit weaker with the energy, after it interacts a touch more with the upper low off of California.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the NC mountains folks just posted that there was a RECON plane sent to throw some dropsondes into the atmospheric river and it also threw some soundings at our energy for the weekend system.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH going back and looking at the 12z CMC it looks quite bit like the 18z GEFS with its slp placement.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a loop of the GEFS lows. The small lps and hps are members and the big Hs and Ls are the means:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the GEFS lows are about half north and half south: With the mean a touch south of the OP.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think in the case of our area (specifically central parts of the eastern great valley), we want a low to pop around New Orleans or Mobile and make a run at Cape Hatteras. TBH we don't want any sort of a hand off, since even if it was cold, that would hurt any TROWL/ deform band as the hand off occurs.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really would sting to get energy diving in from that angle, but still get a nasty Miller B Hybrid. Far NW and far NE section could do ok with that look though.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Two contour closed upper low over OK at hour 99 and still diving.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is a lot of energy aimed at the Gulf. Can it dive, wrap, and make the turn?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Energy starting to try and wrap up over western Nebraska at hour 81
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    So far it looks pretty similar. A bunch of energy digging towards the western Gulf at hour 75, but the 18z ICON spooked me a bit so I don't want to say how it looks for sure, one way or another, lol.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS is up and running
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS members through hour 138:
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