Holston_River_Rambler

Snowfall through hr 90:

12z Euro has snow through I-40 across all of TN between 8PM and 2 AM Wed- Thurs.:

Looks like @AMZ8990 is about to get the right front quadrant of the 850 low, lol: next image is 850 winds and 850 frontogenesis

About half the 12z GEFS members have a front end thump for TYS - TRI, as well as the control.

I'd say so!

para GFS for the late week system:

Are you ok @AMZ8990: LOL

6z Euro has the thump:

One thing I really like about this Thursday- Friday system (besides the fact that the cursèd TPV is gone), is that we will be in the "Frickin' Floodin' February" Pattern from the past couople of years, but with actual, real, arctic cold, somewhere in the forum area. : Right entrance region of a jet streak, FTW. I picked the non-precip type image, just to show the intensity. Remember the firehose aimed at parts of the eastern TN valley the past couple of Febs? Imagine that, but with snow.

As you can tell, it's already happened to me.

Looks like quite a bit of WAA on the NAM: With no precip: Just gonna say that it is probably underestimating the WAA precip Something else to consider: That is a left over piece of energy that could ride the front as it get pushed east by the Thurs-Fri storm. It's still digging and it has some friends to the north that could help it out, now that the TPV of Doom is retreating. Up through now, any N - S interaction has been squished by the TPV, but since it is on its way out, that opens the door for more changes in the next couple of days. If you run the CMC out past hr 84, you can see that energy interact with a N. stream piece and for a storm off the outer banks: I think that since the TPV is still cranking over the Great Lakes, it is still impacting everything that happens afterwards. It should finally (thank God) be rolling out by Wed. evening and I bet there will be more changes, for better or worse, until go time with the late week system and whatever might follow up over the weekend, before we get to the Cosgrove Relaxation Period (like the Medieval Warm Period, but more Cosgrovish and recent) that Carver mentioned.

Who's ready to get sucked in for round 2??? 0z EPS has 5 members that look anything like the above.

Yuck:

My guess on the rime ice would be what y'all figured out. It's like a rock in a river. You have the eddy behind the rock where there is less movement of water. Same thing here. The droplets can accrue behind the pole where there is an opportunity to slow down and accumulate.

Ice Ice baby, up here 30 with NNW wind

Got some freezing drizzle here now on the elevated parts of cars and a deck. ~31/30

On a positive note at least for me after my Banter post, that there seem to be some hints at the possibility of a front end WAA thump for the late weeks system, but that of course could evaporate in time.

33 in southern MoCo.

Pretty healthy dynamics with this system and temps seem to be verifying colder up to go time in places (see Memphis starting their WSWarning early). Maybe this could be a situation where rates actually do overcome if you get under the right dynamic band and the fatties get rippified.

Here's the UKMET sounding for the same time Monday (18z): I don't really see that as a freezing drizzle sounding. DGZ is saturated and barely any warm nose getting above 0 celsius. To me that would be a snow/ sleet sounding.

I should add that I included the late week system on that gif too, so I wouldn't have to make two.

Ukie:

12z Euro: sounding just south of Nashville for @jaxjagman

12z GEFS:

@Blue MoonWell, I'd wait and see what 12z does. That will have some RAOB data in it. I know some mets make fun of waiting for that data, but apparently it can have an impact, as we saw in the last storm. We even saw yesterday that Mark J from NWS Louisville was favoring the 0/12z suites. All that being said, it could be legit. swinging back NW a bit.