Holston_River_Rambler

Getting some sunshine here in Morgan County, now.

This chaser is almost on the Selma/ Autauga county tornado: https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

Warned storm near Selma looks rough on radar:

Already a Watch through 1 PM Central and a warned cell in west central MS:

Warm front looks pretty healthy this AM: High Risk in effect now:

So..... BINGO card time for the storm chasers this Wednesday?? I was going to say Reed Trimmer sighting was the freebie and sure enough, he's already been sighted. I think my wxtwitter feed is just now getting some of the storm chaser shenanigans in it (previously, mostly winter wx stuff). If they're having trouble chasing tornados in western KS and TX, they may be in more trouble in the Upper SE, lol. I didn't quite catch everything that happened with the latest high plains chase session, (other than the now ubiquitous Dodge City windmill farm "No"), but are we about to get a bunch of the chaser newbies in the Upper SE (probably S and W of Eastern TN)? If we're gonna get some severe (not in this thread to talk about the likelihood or lack of it), might as well have the drama and comedy of wxtwitter pay a visit. Some BINGO card suggestions...... 1. Reed Trimmer is the free space 2. somebody tweets "where is the tornado??!!" with a Radarscope image of them next to a velocity couplet 3. somebody drives down a private gravel road and gets chased off with a shotgun 4. somebody from another forum area posts in the TN valley severe thread at 2 AM asking why only 2 people are awake digitally chasing the event as it is consolidating into a line of convection 5. We figure out someway to include the Johnny Cash image or birthday cake doodle dog images in a severe wx meme that only 10 - 13 people will understand and appreciate 6. another chaser mocks #3 on twitter 7. 2011 mention on twitter 8. Jeff Piotrowski sighting (another free space of your choice if he finds something like the infamous blue shed) That's all I can think of for now. PS, this is not me hating on storm chasers. I was just more interested in the interpersonal interactions I saw on wxtwitter after the latest high plains chase/ event, than the actual event, though I always love the hi res satellite imagery of the convective trains horizontal rotation getting lifted vertically. And this:

GFS v 16 brought my baby back:

Wild GFS v16 6z storm:

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Euro Control I40 special:

The 850 low isn't over Des Moines this time, I don't know what to think

John, you just got quasi NAM'd, what are you gonna do with more snow? MRX is rather encouraged, for precip at least, with a variety no not even a variety, a veritable smorgasbord of exciting forcing mechanisms For Tuesday night and Wednesday, a compact short-wave will move across the Tennessee valley, Gulf Coast states, and southern Appalachians. Jet structure is complex but northern stream jet over the mid-Atlantic and southern stream jet with the upper trough will produce upper divergence. The Ageostrophic Circulations with the jets will enhance the dynamic forcing over the area. Models show decent QG forcing which will help cool the column. This system will produce widespread showers beginning in the evening south, then lift northeast into much of the area overnight. Temperature profile tricky with the NAM colder. The GEFS and ensemble mean from the ECMWF suggest temperatures will be cold enough for snow across the higher elevations. Snow accumulations of a dusting (at or above 4kft) and 2 inches (at or above 5kft) are anticipated. Locally heavier amounts over the peaks of the Smoky and Roane Mountains. This lines up well with the WPC snow accumulations. They didn't even mention the WAA, meager though it may be: almost guarantees a NW trend with precip.

Rut roh Rorge (from MRX): Within this high shear, low CAPE environment, there will be a very low chance of a QLCS tornado within the convective line across our western and southwestern counties on tonight. While the risk of a QLCS tornado is very low, it is a risk that will need to be considered and monitored closely tonight.

Here comes bowling ball #1: Will it be a gutter ball or a strike? One of the big problems we had with the past systems during the arctic outbreak, is that the energy has never truly taken the low road. That we were even getting any frozen east of BNA was a testament to how cold the air was at the surface, while the 850 lows were running into the midwest.

I’ve had my 3 days of sun. I’m recharged for one more run until April, lol.

Already 40 in Mossy Grove. I'm thinking 72ish up here today.

Euro seems to be wanting to go for a western ridge out in fantasy land, and that would align with Carver's thoughts. Good news dwagner, latest Euro aims the firehose along I 40: aligns with the WPC's thinking: That western ridge would def. be a welcome break from what seems like will be a rather wet week.

The National Blend of Models this AM says start warming up those floaties All OP runs overnight look similar.

Hopefully the NAO can flex again in early March and knock this down a bit, buuuutttttttttt......starting to see hints of the "hydrological concerns" pattern trying showing up on the ensemble means: EPS mean: GEFS mean: Some of the OP runs look yucky too: GFS: para GFS: Euro: It's hit and miss with these sorts of OP runs though, so like I said above hopefully an NAO can flex enough to keep it south of the TN Valley watershed, (or it could just help create a funnel between it and the SE ridge as a boundary keeps getting hung up over our area ) [runs and hides and buys an ark or two]

Honestly, I can't complain too much. I would say I have a total 7" on the year, better than the last two for sure. I think its maybe just the first time I've been posting on these boards where there have been so many chances that were truly near misses. 2 full days of sunshine now, is doing wonders for the snow batteries. Pattern looks progressive for at least the next week, so should have a nice balance of rain vs sun days. I suspect the Euro has lost the late week system only to bring it back in some form or another once it is in Hi-res range.

State o the state for future reference:

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%. I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up: I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method.

Now I see it:

Also, someone is going to have to point out the doggo to me from the CMC's map.

So cold, like stone.