Holston_River_Rambler

Is that some snow virga heading my way in a weak deformation zone? Dare I hope for a single flurry?

TBH I thought Jeff was kind of tongue-in-cheek joking when he said the convection was "reset[ting]" over the Maritime Continent area, but it really looks like it did just that as the typhoon was heading west. I always thought the MJO couldn't move backwards, but it looks like, at least in terms of whatever it does to modulate the the N Hemisphere's pattern, it did just that. I guess I just assumed that after the a stall with the typhoon, it would pick up where it left off in the western Pac. Maybe 3 steps forwards and two steps back is the dance it wants to run this winter. Still hugging the BOM this AM: But the Euro et al. ensembles ain't budging: The GEFS seems to have finally straightened out (sort of anyway) whatever kinks it had for the past couple of days: I guess there's a scenario in there somewhere where it doesn't get to phase 8 until the end of the first week of January and takes until mid February to reemerge in 4 or 5? But beware, the EPS shows the possibility for small TCs to sap it a bit once the convection gets back to the Western Pac: Maybe little ones like that won't do much damage to it, but I really don't know. Also, I suspect talking about possibilities with tropical critters post day 10 doesn't have a lot of certainty. It seems like the EPS sees a general area of lower pressures approaching 150w, but only at the end of its tun. Up top, the GFS has been showing some warming at 10hPa late in its recent runs: The Euro is showing similar warming, just over Greenland at 240 hours. No splits in the SPV, but maybe "unsettled" would be a good word, if i were writing a forecast discussion for Sandy Claus flying up in the strat. Nothing looks too different in the ensembles this AM, but someone else might have more to say.

I've already broken out the Christmas week beer, so here's a nice NAO GEFS gif trend, as of 18z, to get me back on the rails:

There aren't too many posts that actually make me lol. This was one.

Cold frosty morning up in MoCo today. Pic is on Lone Mt. looking towards Frozen Head Sate Park. The central peak is about 3200 ft.

Would be interesting if this could take on a more WSW to ENE trajectory, rather than the SSW to NNE of last year. I'll go ahead and weenie myself

Mr Kevin is a prophet:

Here ya go: GEFS, GEPS, and EPS: I have to admit the past 36 hours or so kind of spooked me a little bit and the end of the EPS at 12z ain't helping The control has my favorite flood pattern to boot: Fortunately all this is still out past 10 days and maybe the MJO has finally reset, and we won't get another TC, and it will finally make it past 7. I'm hugging the BOM for now: Not a bad convection flare up NE of New Guinea this PM:

On the bright side they could turn the slopes into extreme whitewater rafting experiences if the 6z GFS is right: Fortunately the EPS doesn't see it (except notably, to an extent, in the control) But I'm always nervous about the trough dropping over the 4 corners and aiming the jet at the OH Valley, so we get stuck in the right entrance region of jet streak after jet streak and get soaked. The creeks up here in Morgan county are already very happy after the past couple of days: I'd say they are about half again higher today (that pic was taken Friday AM). Our little typhoon friend that has been messing with the RMM plots is finally starting to weaken after bottoming out at 915mb yesterday. BOM looks good this AM, once again: The Euro just spins in in 7: GEFS is more hopeful: We finally have some actual convection over the Western Pac again, associated with the MJO wave: Hopefully it doesn't turn into another typhoon, lol. Strat still looks kind of stressed in the long term, but no major splits or warmings consistently modeled yet.

They all looked so good (albeit at 10+) that I almost can't believe it. Only subtle differences between the major 3. The OP GFS even shows a wild scenario where the NAO ridge and the EPO ridge merge to form an AO ridge displaced over the Beaufort Sea: Even the Euro Control was still pushing the storm track south and had some energy that looked like it would be forced from the 4 corners area to the Gulf. Not saying that will happen, but there is some pattern support for storms eventually taking the low road from the CO Plateau to the SE Coast in these ensembles.

Looks even better this AM: Our little typhoon friend has restrengthened though: But it only has about 72 hours left to live. I think after Monday, we start to get some nice 240+ hour storms on the GFS and Euro control. Here are the overnight gifs of teh ensembles for all you gif fiends out there (EPS, GEFS, and GEPS): Euro control and OP GFS were both showing the storm track pushing south at the end of their runs, so that seems to agree with these means.

I know we've already mentioned it, but dang, what a Typhoon: MJO is going to be wonky until that sucker finishes its life cycle. I'm not much of a tropical Wx enthusiast especially this time of year, but Lord have mercy: That do be a pinhole eye if I ever saw one. 920 mb. We have 5 days until the recurve and weakening, according to the GEFS and EPS.

I was referencing Carver's post above from one of Webb's tweet threads. Webb was trying to construct and analogue for where he thinks the pattern is heading in early - mid January .

Hypothetical here, but let's say the pattern does evolve the way Griteater, Webb, and we have been seeing, what sort of storm track is most likely? Slider? Overrunning? Miller A? Miller B? Clippers?

Is much werrry guudd comrade! You give vwodka cold and snow, which you have much excess of, then I click link! We make great success deal!

There may be hope Jeff! Overnight Euro was nice to TRI and western NC: Not much ensemble support, but the Euro is at least saying there's a chance

500 mb anomalies/ 850 temps/ 2m temps: Looks like we're trending towards a Qasigiannguit based -NAO, but we need a Kangerlussuaq based one. I just don't know if a Qasigiannguit based one will cut it.

The EPS suggest a mean nudge west on the SE ridge, late in the run. This is the first I've seen it try to do that: Seems to be in response to the -NAO pushing west. I don't have access to the run-to-run changes, but I bet they'd look nice for this one run.

Looky looky: Only one run, but that is the best split I've seen on the GFS in a while. Euro is not on board. The split is extra interesting on this run of the GFS since it is initially driven by warming over Siberia, but then a seconds warming appears to be propagating up from the NAO region at the very end of the run:

Not today Vladimir, not today, lol.

Maybe for Christmas, but I have a good Russian Imperial Stout saved up, brewed in TN, if we get some vodka cold. Here is also a semi on topic picture of what would have to be the ultimate 50/50 low, posted just for posterity I've seen the GFS throw out some cray cray solutions, but this one would be wild. The ensemble has nothing like it, but what a wild NWP solution. I feel kind of bad posting the OP GFS at 384, but it is Saturday night and that is about as exciting as it gets here in Morgan County.

Yes I am ready for the highs and the lows and even a loop de loop in phase 7 for the next week, lol:

@Carvers Gap Some strong winds just above the surface heading your way. MRX thinks they might mix down:

There's a pretty big spread showing up on the EPS wrt temps, starting in about 7 days: On Thursday the 23rd one extreme member has a high of 68 and low of 60, while on the other end, one member has a high of 19 and low of 8. It's normal for there to be increasing spread with increasing lead times, but that seems extraordinarily spread out, IMO. It seems like around the 18th or 19th something happens (or doesn't) that causes that spread. That's about when both the OP GFS and Euro start building the -EPO and -NAO, so I guess it just depends on how each member handles it. In fact, look at the spread for the EPO and NAO on the EPS: A few members of both the GEFS and EPS showing some solid hits for parts of all of the TN Valley Christmas week, to go along with more favorable blocking.

It's interesting to see just how much broad rotation is happening at the northern end of this squall line of the mid/ upper south: . It almost looks like a little meso-vortex with a summertime MCS