Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Oh noooo PBP's are my fav. I just threw that up for reference -
I nominate @Stovepipe with the caveat that he has to start it with an epic photoshop involving Johnny Cash, the Doof Warrior from Mad Max, and the birthday cake dog. On second thought that one may need to be saved for later, lol.
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Euro just started up on TrueWeather
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@Carvers Gap all I have is pivotal too, weathermodels doesn't have snow totals for the para and true weather doesn't have it at all:
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You want the whole run, or a specific time frame?
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Looks like the UKMET is coming north a bit for the Sunday system (the one that goes out to hr 144 on pivotal). 0z on the left and 12z on the right: The other one I post won't be finished running for a bit, but I will post that one too later, just to see if the newer UKMET is different.
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I think the RGEM did get a little closer with the energy. Not saying it will work out this time, but the RGEM didn't do so hot with the overrunning, WAA precip last time. It does seem to do better with its depictions of energy though, so who knows. It is gradually coming north (last 4 runs):
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As usual, I like to play "Guess the NAM run with the SREF." Looks like the 12z NAM may be closer to the GFS.
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@TellicoWx Here are the 6z EPS members through hour 84
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I should have those in about an hour or so and will post when they come in.
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The energy depiction looks similar and (I think?) if the energy verifies a tad stronger and digs just a bit, the Euro would look more like the GFS:
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Looks like the 6z Euro came north with the precip. for superbowl Sunday. Still not like the GFS, but a small step for it.
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18z Para and GFS have the 12 - 14th storm window again.
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Apparently the para gFS has been doing well the past week or so: stolen from the MA forum
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Not sure, but it sounds like some places at elevation def. have. The EPS looks more like the CMC or the new para GFS, at least to me, so it would be less suppressed and closer to the 12th than the 14th:
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That being said, they just all handle that giant vort. lobe so differently. It's actually kind of surprising, when you look at it that way, that they have a similar solution at the surface.
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Everything seems to like that window between the 12th and the 14th, at least for now. Hopefully the Euro is overamping some storm somewhere that is messing with the flow. If you look at the GFS, CMC, and Euro, they look remarkably similar for such a lead.
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I may have been looking at it the wrong way, but that is why I use it too and it just seems like it hasn't always been great about doing that this season.
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Yeah, F5wx says it is a new 10km resolution version. I'm just not sure why or if other sites have or will start using the new one. Hopefully it is better than the Ukie we have had so far this winter. I was actually thinking about cancelling F5 subscription since I only use it for the UKMET precip. maps and it hasn't had a hot hand very often if at all this winter.
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If we woof loud enough, @Stovepipe will come give it back.
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What I'm trying to say is that I think the UKMET has just been upgraded to a new version (higher resolution) and I think only F5 has that version so far.
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Just trying to find data on how the new UKMET is different, and saw there is apparently a UKMET ensemble: MOGREPS. Wonder if any service has that one, lol? 36 members. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/ensemble-forecasting/mogreps
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As far as I can tell, no one else has the new Ukie yet except F5wx, or they are all running it out to only 144 hours. I'll look to see if there are any differences at 12z. But F5 has had some problems getting the new UK version's data to load, so some of the panels weren't available yesterday. I do think it seemed less cold that the old Ukie on Pivotal.
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Here's the run to tun change on it on the Euro for the past 4 runs (for those wondering what we're talking about with the TPV): When it was depicted rounder and further east, the cold could sink south, but if it gets stretched out across the N. border, that cuts off the cold.
