Holston_River_Rambler

I know they're talking about the mountains in this quote, but still nice to see: "It`s too far out to discuss accumulation details just yet but I suspect there will be some notable snowfall totals out of this storm." It really does look like more than your average NW Flow. Check out the vort lobe fujiwara on the NAM: \ The 6z Euro has it too:

Bob Chill is back

A lot to learn in this tweet thread, if you dig around ruminate. He doesn't explain everything (he shouldn't and besides it wouldn't be fun if it wasn't a puzzle). But a nice little series of visual vignettes showing the connections between the tropic and the N. Hemisphere patters.

RGEM drops the remnant upper low for the weekend system over E KY/ SW VA and NE TN, which helps generate some more snow showers, than if the NAM is right (drops it in further NE) I feel like this is one of those situations where the RGEM does better than the NAM, but exactly where vorticity lobes go, even a few days out, is anyone's guess. Euro leans toward the RGEM:

Happy times:

12z Para was a pretty good run: Euro was west with the trough again, but it looked like it could swing east, def. a big high trying to press in to the north:

Masiello was talking about some AAM being injected poleward, so that would support that. But it is Masiello, so he could have been trying to say anything. I'm just glad to see big highs in play in Canada. I feel like we haven't seen that at all this year.

Looks like the MA is finally gonna get smoked. Wasn't the last time they had a widespread event for even the I-95 folks and SE from there 2016? Hopefully a sign that whatever (whether it be background state or plain bad luck) has been keeping the TN Valley corridor and areas NE toward them from getting a decent set up is finally going away. Or they just got lucky. Whatves, I'm happy for 'em!

CMC and Euro are starting to dump the trough in the west, after the the big front on the 5 - 6. The GFS is keeping it more towards the center of the US or east (as John has above). I'm glad that its long range, so it could change, but I would rather see the GFS have some back up. The 12z Euro yesterday was more like the GFS at 240, so it could swing back. CMC and Euro have the dreaded flood look: GFS Para GFS splits the difference and tries to dump the trough back in the west, but it almost gets strongarmed east by a STJ streak: Some of the CMC and EPS members apparently see the trough making it east too, given that some (maybe a 1/4) see some snowfall after the big front on the 5th or 6th. GEFS is also trying to dump the trough back out west, but, like the CMC ensembles, it eventually pulls it east: . Good to see all models agree that there is the opportunity for some cross polar flow with arctic ridging.

Dusting on elevated surfaces with flurries under a full moon, peeking through the clouds.

This is also the way: One of those strikes looks close to Carver's Gap. I would love to be up there, (in a decent shelter of course, lol).

We shall live vicariously through twitter:

Happy hour Para FTW: 12z EPS starting to see some hits in that time frame too (just using Crossville as an example of the time frame):

40 here and some very wet snow mixing in. I'm actually pretty surprised we've even got that.

Web cams show snow between Mt Juliet and Lebanon. Hopefully that and the cooler temps keep cruising down I-40. Cookeville looks like it is still virga, same up here in MoCo.

Based on tnweathernut's ob. I susupect some of that bright banding around Nashvegas is wet snow. Actually, Radarscope says yes: Time to check out some webcams

Down to 46.9 now, (that counts as 46, right?) from near 60. Ten more degrees is apparently all I need. 43, twenty-five minutes up the road near the Obed. Looks like most locations around Crossville are near 40.

Good to hear that the atmosphere is overcoming the boundary layer issues!

Wind's cranking up here now, WNW 15 mph with gusts to 20. Some of the plateau weather stations in Cumberland County are dropping pretty quick and some places like Pickett and Fentress never warmed as much. Think it is too much to overcome for MBY, but I guess we'll see. My general area has dropped 6 - 10 degrees in the past couple of hours.

925 mb surface analysis looks ok: N or NW flow across most of TN, even eastern valley areas.. But 850 mb looks a wee bit worse: WSW or SW flow. I still think areas around TRI (especially Bristol to Abingdon and NE on 81 and even Johnson County and Elizabethton and maybe even Unicoi) will do ok, but not sure I can see much for SW of Fall Branch. Hopefully I'm wrong, I would love even a dusting or mood flakes.

Almost 60 at my nearest weather station. It’s in the shade at 1300 feet. Clouds moving in just in time to lock it in.

And if the sun actually comes out and we get even a couple of hours of daytime heating.... that is def. not good. there is some clearing in West TN

The HRRR thinks the temps are going to nose up into the low to mid 50s in the central and even northern, Eastern Valley. If it's right about that, then we will have a problem. I just can't see enough cold catching up to the moisture as it swings through in the evening after peak heating is insulated by the clouds. I'm not happy about it, but it is what it is, if the HRRR is right. 3km NAM keeps a little more cold over SW VA. I think we'll probably have a better sense of what happens by 2 PM. Most models have the 850 low moving across the souther plateau or rounding the base of the Apps by then and we should be able to see what damage any SW flow/ insolation (even with clouds) has done. I'm interested in the potential for an anafront/ wave riding a front in the Feb 6-8 time frame. Most models are showing some potential for that after the big front swings through on the 4/5th. Ensembles still seem to think NA will finally get some of that nice cold Siberian air to work with....eventually. Whenever that happens, I think is our best board wide chance. We've had sooooo many marginal, wishy washy events, if we could just get some decent arctic air injected into or building in North America, it would help so much. Looks like some version of the NAO is going to hang around, but without arctic air to work with, it seems like we end up with gray, cool, and damp weather and days like yesterday seem miraculously warm. So hopefully we get some arctic air for that NAO to block, instead of just a storm track.

And, if there be no good 0z NAMing, blame the 21z ARW cores: They seem to have decided that SWVA needed a whomping

Big jump on some of the SREF members, I suspect a good NAMing incoming for somebody.