Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Although, the 15z HRRR upped amounts near @AMZ8990 -
15z HRRR actually has a corridor almost directly south of Frozen Head/ Cross mt that takes longer to change over:
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I think part of what the models see is some downsloping off of the Frozen Head mts. Makes sense with a NE or NNE wind.
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I hope so. I just remember the HRRR indicating something like this with a system last year, and it played out that way. But, this storm a whole different beast and I have never seen such an energetic storm since I've been posting on here, so I will go with your alls experience.
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12z GFS give Jeff more snow than me, lol:
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But man, I would love to have a cabin stocked up in the Grayson Highlands tonight!
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I think you're going to do much better than me with this one Reb. I suspect I will have boundary layer problems until the precip is just starting to move out, but the ~50 miles between me and Blount county will make a ton of difference. The low starts to deepen as the precip is moving out for me, but I think foothills areas will get really good rates for a while. The 14z HRRR actually shows areas closer to the mts turning before me in SE Morgan county.
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12z RGEM shows major mixing issues for those of us in the central and southern valley just along the edge of the plateau:
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6z HRRR: 12z HRRR
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12z HRRR looks like it is just a tad slower and deeper with the energy. I guess we'll see what that translates to at the surface.
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Although he is talking about the mid Atlantic, I think some of that applies to NE TN and SW VA.
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Nice catch from the MA thread about the meteorology of the system:
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I know, I'm the same way. Literally was just thinking, "Is this even real? WTF is happening?" as I was reading the NWS Blacksburg disco
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6z Euro bumps totals up again:
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Or I guess I could have been smart and just used the WPC one:
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The boundary our low will ride overnight is setting up: I guess this is one of the reasons we always want to see the shortwave tilt negatively, so that it backs the low level flow and pulls the slp back N, in this case (hopefully), tucks it up on the leeside of the Apps. You can see the flow starting to back on satellite over central AL as higher clouds build back in from south to north:
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I just want to make sure that y’all know that my soil temp post earlier was in no way meant to suggest that accumulation would be more or less. I saw that some folks on southernwx were bringing soil temps up, so I thought “hmmmm I wonder what those look like here in Morgan county.” I checked it out and saw that they were quite variable depending on the boundary layer and was impressed at how quickly they could lower.
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IMO a NAMing incoming.
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0z NAM already deeper and slower as soon as hour 14.
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And think that's fair. TBH I'm probably hand-wringing a little bit about it. I think there will be some micro climates come in to play tomorrow night that I've never gotten to see before, wrt the energy and slp track, and I'm pretty happy about that.
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If I had to make a call, I’d say travel at elevations above 2500 feet is no bueno tomorrow pm and overnight, but less certain below that elevation.
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I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather.
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I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather.
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Here is a gif of the HRRR. Such a nice evolution for the northeastern valley:
