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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET handles the energy very differently from its 0z run. Result is better for central and western areas.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beautiful plateau sunrise this AM:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's SEC championship Saturday, and you know what that means... Happy Hour GFS is at 6z! On a half way more serious note, guess which model had that more wound up/ cut off southern solution yesterday at 12z??? J M A Although I have to say the Canadian had a similar solution for a while, but for a different reason. The 0z CMC has a triple phaser, just a wee bit too far west and north to be optimal for us. Man the overnight Euro was ugly, like y'all said. It even gives us a tiny little bit of CAPE and a lot of shear: Hopefully the Euro is overamping that initial push of energy (although following weather weenie rule 35 tnweathernut reminded me of yesterday, probably not). But it has overamped some systems in this range in the past month. I can't find the images, but at one point the Euro had, in this time frame (around hour 120), a wound up storm dumping snow on middle TN. It ended up less wound up, but that doesn't mean it will this time. It's actual depiction of the energy looked closer to a better solution and if you discount the wound up energy heading to the lakes, it isn't too far from the GFS or CMC: Notice the piece of energy I circled. It closes off a secondary piece of energy to our south. Of course the same rule I applied to the first piece that closes off (above) could also be applied to this piece. If it is overampy, maybe it is overamping both. I say let's go for the WPC's idea, for now: "While the amplifying evolution is a consistent and agreeable theme in the guidance, the details are still fairly uncertain. If anything the new 00Z guidance is lowering confidence somewhat given a return to more spread for exactly how Eastern Pacific shortwave energy reaching the West evolves in the short range/early medium range time frame, with the 00Z UKMET/CMC not comparing particularly well with recently established consensus. To some degree these issues feed through the rest of the period. Interaction from Canadian flow provides added complexity. Among the 12Z/18Z solutions the GFS/ECMWF/CMC clustered fairly well in principle, suggesting steady progression of the northern tier system and then one or more waves (possibly with fairly strong development) embedded along the trailing front that crosses the eastern U.S. Another surface low could form in the vicinity of the Great Lakes (or elsewhere nearby) based on these solutions closing off an upper low. Ensembles show greater spread including hinting at some potential for slower shortwave energy such as what the new UKMET/CMC suggest, while keeping the overall upper trough open. For the purposes of a single deterministic forecast, preference sided with an operational 12Z/18Z model blend (more emphasis on the GFS/ECMWF) for about the first half of the period and then some inclusion of the 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF means to tone down the GFS/ECMWF/CMC specifics given the detail uncertainties farther out in time."
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy Hour GFS time:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I suspect there are a few EPS members that look more like the GFS, but won't have access to individual members until after 4 PM.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know, it wasn't too bad. Could have looked like the ICON.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the UKMET precip and H5 vorts: The front is really distinct on the precip map, and you can almost see the wave starting to form. I feel like the energy would try to close off or go negative in a good spot for some of us. Euro was pretty different than the UKMET yesterday, though.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was wondering how much energy was being left behind by the Ukie. My F5 Ukie maps are pretty slow, so that's why I went to Meteorcentre. That Ukie map looks lit to me!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET looks interesting out to 144: Looks like it is pulling the front through and leaving some energy behind, about to swing across TX
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I do like about this, is that the cold front seems like the real deal. Pretty much universal agreement that a strong cold front associated with a highly amplified trough, is going to sweep through late next week.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dang, even Chatt gets ~ .70 frozen!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looks like it will be a middle ground between the ICON and GFS, probably better for central and western areas.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    The good news is, now that we are in a bulls eye a week out, we CAN trend to severe! It's not
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's Friday, so happy hour is at noon(note we will pay for it on the 18 z run):
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much to add other than a tour de ensembles: The old 6z GEFS members were slinging Christmas presents: The new GEFS had some presents too, but not as many: EPS were looking better than they had in a few days: One thing that I found interesting was that the Euro Control was much more excited about the window: I included EPS member 42 on that gif too, since it was pretty enthusiastic for many in our forum. Some of you have mentioned that Euro seems like it overamps systems at this range, at least this season. If that's the case, given that the control is a lower resolution run, that it is a snowier run is notable? I think that's Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #34, right? I know y'all mentioned the CMC above, but since I've been posting on how it handles the energy, I did also want to mention that it has come around to the Euro and GFS in how it handles it. But wait, the NAM at hour 84, keeps that energy more consolidated further east??!!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    (Said in my best Tiny Tim voice) It's a Christmas Clipper!!! A happy hour miracle!!!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    But wait, we have the KMA on our side too, looking good. What could go wrong?
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro : CMC: That's the difference between the two.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro OP is now the least amplified with the energy, but only the CMC brings that extra bit onshore with the rest of it. That seems to be the difference between a FROPA with maybe some Anafrontal precip or a bigger storm for some one east of the Mississippi.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET is coming in deeper with the energy than its 0z run, as it crosses the Rockies. It only goes out to 144, but will the Euro do the same? Ukie 0z: Ukie 12z: Here's the 12z CMC for comparison:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Took a run up to Frozen Head, above 3000 feet. A nice dusting and some rime ice: My house even had.... Wait for it... A slushy accumulation less than one inch on... ELEVATED SURFACES!!!!!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    All three have the main piece of energy, and have for a few days, just a question of how the interaction happens. Like y'all said, the CMC was a beut! A full on triple phaser (and about to be quadruple phaser over NE): The main piece drops across the Bitter Route range along the MT/ ID border. GFS: Euro: That little extra piece of energy that the CMC has coming across Northern CA, both the GFS and Euro snip it off over the Pac, and that piece seems to be the key to the CMC's big dog. Some of the new 6z GEFS members have low popping on the front: The EPS has a few too.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think one of the reason some of the longer range looks have seemed to go downhill a little (as I look at 500mb heights on the same GFS post hour 300), may have to do with a convection flare up, north of the equator, over the ever popular MJO regions 5 and 6: Compare to a few days ago:
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