Holston_River_Rambler

I'm just going to guess here, but looks like Chatty gets TROWAL'd on the 12z GFS.

Since you're on here right now @nrgjeff, I have a question. What is the best way to look for a TROWAL on the models. Obviously the models have problems resolving things like that, but is there a way to see some of the features like looking just NW of a low at a given pressure level?

They just started brining the roads on highway 27. It's over.

I don't know if what I'm about to say is how this works, but it looks like there is a weakness in the windfields that the 850 low is getting pulled toward: that seems to be what is encouraging it to pull north.

6z Euro. It looked a little better early, but still tried to run a low up the Apps. For y'all who watched it at 0z, is it an improvement? I haven't had enough coffee to figure it out, lol.

I think the 6z Euro is going to come in a tinge south with the vort as compared to 0z. Still a few more minutes until it finishes running.

I think the basic idea is pretty locked in. The main vort is entering the US and it looks to me like it is head basically where most models think (Arklatex region): I think there could still be some minor changes in the grand scheme, but most people's locations in this forum area are very sensitive to even minor changes. For me, the biggest question right now is, how far south does it dig? If we can get it to get as far south as the HRRR I posted above, that is a good sign. Hopefully that makes it harder for the 850 low to gain latitude and it will round the base of the Apps instead of running up into the eastern valley.

I know it is the extended HRRR, but at this point it's time to pull out all the stops for good news and trends. It is really digging the energy south at hour 48:

I like it when the orange colors start to show up.

It is the dreaded Gator head SLP presentation: Never good for TN.

Here is a comparison. The further south one is 0z:

0z NAM is a little south of 18z.

I've never seen one of these Miller B transfer types in my location, so will be interesting here. The more amped it is, the more it really wants to run an 850 circulation up the eastern valley.

18z Euro.

That might be the system Carvers was talking about earlier, but not sure.

RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low:

Biggest change for me through hour 42 is how the vort looks. The more circular one is the 18z, the other is 12z:

Nam out to hour 27 could be better confluence, and the vort is moving a hair faster. But there could also have just been a high flying Sandhill crane fart in the wrong direction.

EPS mean through hour 90

Snow map:

Here is the precip map:

I think so too but was afraid to say it, so we'll go down together, lol.

Through 66 the vort is a little faster, stronger and a south of 6z.

Euro is rolling. A touch more confluence over NE at hour 42, than 6z.

We only like the UKMET when it affirms what we want to believe. Otherwise we toss.