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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS almost went BOOM with our Valentine's day chance:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another interesting dynamic with the Tuesday deal is that there is some hint of a dual jet structure showing up. I will use the NAM for NAM purposes: The red circle could be, I think, a very subtle jet streak, and the blue circle is a relatively more dynamic one. By their powers combined, along with ye olden PVA: We get precip (switching to COD graphic because they show more qpf than tropical Tidbits): And hot off the presses the 6z Euro which keeps it further east: Some things for considering: 1. I'm not really 100% the red circle from my first gif is even a jet streak. If we were really under the dual jet structure, you would think there could be would be more precip shown. 2. Not a lot of deep moisture shown verbatim. Most moisture is 700mb and lower. 3. Any Boom potential IMO is limited to areas east of 81, so foothills and mountains. Even in upper east TN maybe just Carter, Unicoi, and Johnson counties, and maybe even Bristol? 4. More vorticity advecting in from the Plains is really trying to keep this sucker squished, so it could still just be an offshore, washed out, flat mess.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Been going back and forth, but I'm kinda sorta getting a little interested in Tuesday now. Probably not worth any images at this time, but I think there might be an opportunity for one of the shortwaves to amplify more than currently depicted. Or it could still be a flat washed out mess.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was looking at some wunderground station in Cannon county a little while ago and one was 60 and one was 37 !
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully better late than never. Just got finished with a few work things.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Despite my pessimism yesterday, there does seem to be a pretty big signal for some sort of storm Valentines weekend, or just after, details TBD. There looks to be a East asian Mountain Torque event (low pressure to the lee of the Himalayas) over the next few days that should extend the Pac jet: Here is a Webb explanation for a different event in 2018 ( but it is probably the clearest and most succinct explanation of what a mountain torque does, that I've read): You can see how the GFS resolves the added momentum about a week later in the amplification of the AK ridge and subsequent downstream troughing around Valentines weekend. I think it just depends on where that ridge sets up and trough dumps. I can't believe I'm saying this, but a -NAO would be nice. But I do think the relative nearness in time of the mountain torque to the lee of the Himalayas, is giving more than the usual certainty of some sort of trough amplification in the central or eastern US around Valentine's day. Also for you east Asia rule folks, that 12z GFS at 300 was a weenie run Se and east of Japan: I think it actually has to be happening and not in fantasy range for the east Asia rule to count, though, lol.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I haven't seen anything worth mentioning, looking off an on over the past week or so. I went back and check overnight, just see if there was something that made him mention and this was about the best I could find: The barest hint of a small split at 50mb on that run. There was someone on twitter who posted something about a strat warming showing up on some long range Euro product a while back, so that may be what he was referring to. I also think early March is when it naturally starts to breakdown anyway. Overall looks stout on the GEFS, but one member looks like it is trying:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS FRAM: NBM trend over the past 6 runs: Definitely a but of a SE trend, esp. with the light fzr accumulations.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro throws quite a bit of .qpf back towards Nashville and points west, after the 32 degree line has passed: 12z Euro FRAM ice map:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    There seems to have been a slight trend on the models to push the worst of the FZR to remain NW of I 40 overnight, except for the 6z GFS. But there also seems ot have been a trend to see a little bit more of a secondary piece of energy running the boundary after the main push of precip. The RGEM shows this the best: The NAMs seem to have something like this too, but they don't throw as much precip back. Have to wait and see if any other models pick up on this.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    It probably would help if I read his bio lol! Sometimes I see something and I’m like “ooo shiny, must share!”
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know how reliable this person is, or if this sort of bias is normal for the HRRR, or if it even matters, but something to consider I suppose:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    It drops a pretty decent amount of sleet as it ends, so that run of the Euro has less fzr as the .qpf.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro looks like it jumped southeast a bit, a little more in line with the GFS than the Euro's 6z run.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also the Feb 5 - 6 deal, if that doesn't happen that's just cruel torture for the some of the I-95 Mid Atlantic folks.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really like that day 12+ overrunning set up. Would love to see something like that happen. Hopefully the GFS is having one of its lucid long range moments at 6z and 12z today!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 6z Euro is more in the RGEM camp.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going to be interesting to see where the North Pac ridge sets up in the long range. If you like wintry weather, this works: This doesn't: Even though they may not look too different at first glance, 6z GFS (top) has a big overrunning event lined up at the surface for us, the 0z (bottom) has it over Iowa. It is waaaayyyy out there so neither scenario could happen. But I think it is pretty much a given that we get an EPO ridge somewhere after 10 days. 6z has it in a good location, 0z doesn't. We're in a Nina and despite what the RMMs say I think the actual MJO pulse that went through 8//1/2 earlier in January, is in low amplitude phase 3/4 right now. Some of that is being offset (why we have the COD) by convection flare ups all over the place and a TC heading towards Madagascar, but with all that in mind I suspect that the EPO ridge in the long range will end up being more over the Aleutians than AK and Yukon area. The models have shown that ridge setting up in an ideal location in the long range many times in the past few years and it adjusts west based on the reality of tropical forcing. Now that hasn't always been the case this year, we've actually had good tropical forcing recently, so hopefully I'm wrong. At least the SOI stopped rising overnight (dropped from +27 to +21). Honestly I'm kind of leaning for the model progression in February to get worse before it gets better. In other words I think we see good looks in the long range deteriorate as we get closer to verification, but I think by maybe the third week through late month we get back into phase 7 heading back toward 8 and the opposite may start to happen. The models give us a "close the blinds" look, but by Feb week 4/ March week 1, the pattern starts to verify better. One thing that could help us is SST mixing from the Tonga eruption. 7 day cooling over the MJO 5/6 and (I hate to say it, 7 too) areas: but notice that even with that cooling it is still warmer than average in some of those areas, lol: I think those SSTs may be a little bit of a wild card though, as the MJO pulse moves east.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest runs (6z GFS/ NAM/ RGEM) look pretty similar wrt to track to what John posted above. NAM and GFS are a little southeast of the RGEM. 6z Euro should be out in about 45 minutes and I will update with that as well.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also, one of my favorite products, the Hyrdological Outlook! Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 456 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 ...Widespread Heavy Precipitation Expected Wednesday-Thursday Night... A large scale weather system is expected to impact southern Indiana and central Kentucky later this week. Initially our area will be on the warm side of this system were heavy rainfall is expected. Given that our soils are fairly moist from recent snow melt, some flooding issues and eventual river flooding will be possible later this week. Rain is expected to develop across the region late Tuesday night and become more widespread during the day on Wednesday. A brief lull in the precipitation is possible Wednesday night before a second round of heavier precipitation moves into the region on Thursday. Colder air will arrive in parts of southern Indiana by Thursday morning changing this rain over to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and some snow before the change over works south through central Kentucky later in the day. The precipitation ends early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2.75 to 3.5 inches are expected across the region with isolated higher amounts. This amount of rainfall is expected to create excessive runoff which will result in localized flooding in some areas. Sharp rises on area creeks and streams are expected and some rivers across the region may go into flood by the end of the week and into the weekend.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS is certainly cold looking past this week. I feel like there is just a bit of can kicking going on though, so we'll see. Hopefully western forum areas can escape the ice threat later this week. It made a couple of attempts at phases, but both missed. The second one was a pretty impressive miss though:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can't say the GFS isn't trying though:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    So close, but so far away:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you thought one vort in the southwest was complicated, the 6z GFS and 0z Euro give you three trying to kick out around hour 150: That is a very tricky pattern if it happens. At one point on the Euro there are 5 different vorts interacting with that southwest trough:
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